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AI 2040: Plan A

ai-2040.com

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Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#301

Post by fragmede »

jbxntuehineoh wrote: post #172
mikestorrent wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, this one. Look at our governance; look at our coordination-at-scale; look at our collective problem solving. It's abysmal, beyond hope. If we have global scale problems, we are not capable of solving them effectively. We are literally not intelligent enough to handle the problems we are creating. Between rivers of garbage and CO2 levels and war, we have proven ourselves to be woefully unintelligent at the scale…

lol, how the fuck is ASI going to solve any of those problems? we already know _how_ to solve them; the problem is that we don't want to, collectively speaking, because certain powerful, wealthy people would loose out if we did. ASI wouldn't change anything. unless you think... all of human society is going to restructure itself around unquestioning worship of the Machine God and would therefore present no resistance…

The fantastical belief is that ASI will be able to make things happen because it knows the right things to say to the right people at the right time in just the right way to make them do whatever it wants them to do.

Certain powerful wealthy people aren't omnipotent, them losing out isn't the only blocker to progress.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#302

Post by dash2 »

vivzkestrel wrote: post #273
dash2 wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you need to explain why the problems of developing countries are related to the issues of the article.

the article makes a lot of predictions and every single one of em is based on how things work in the USA

What would be different in developing countries?

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#303

Post by hollerith »

CaptWorld wrote: post #236
tehjoker wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Worth noting that it is the Europeans and Americans that have been colonial. Asian peoples have, with the prominent exception of the Mongols and Japanese Empire, pretty much not done that. In particular, China shut down its exploration program. This is a settler-colonial mindset that reflects all the bad things we did onto everyone else. Notably, it's a current US ally that is most guilty of this.

This comment is a parody right?

"Asian people have pretty much not done that except for two teeny tiny indiscretions that each killed more civilians than all of Europe's and America's colonial incursions combined."

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#304

Post by trebaud »

taurath wrote: post #267

This is religious fervor folks, as AI 2027 was. I grew up in evangelical christianity, and to them the end of the world is just around the corner, the same way it has been since I was a small child and likely will be when we are all gone. This isn't science. This isn't hypothesis experiment record results. This is very expensive astrology, shiny rock collecting, ritualistic meaning-making and self-justification. Yall…

Or you deeply suffer from normalcy bias. Not believing that AGI is possible is irrational and unscientific imo, the human brain exists, it is not made of magic, it can reproduced. It is as simple as that. We can debate about timelines, architectures that may lead us there, etc... You can even talk all day long about definitions of AGI, and people waste their time doing that. But saying that the human brain cognitive capabilities cannot be reproduced on other types of substrates is stupid at this point.

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#305

Post by mawadev »

I sometimes wonder why the algorithms started pushing doomsday scenarios, especially on youtube. Most channels have big red arrows pointing at a miniscule thing and say "its over". Then you get ai 2027 and its more fear mongering, just inside the AI echo chamber on the internet. At work even managers watch odd youtube videos that are radicalized towards politics and so on, but are ultimately head canon slop for ad revenue.

It feels like we are so utterly bored out of our minds and comfort that we make up problems or scenarios, completely detached from reality, or outright irrelevant to day to day reality, just to get through the day and give meaning to our lives.

It is an incredible achievement, don't get me wrong, but what is AI truly going to do when we are already at such a stage of devolution?

It reminds me of the scene in Wall-E when people destroyed the planet and started flying through space to find a new planet, while the captain is an AI and the people became obese in mobility scooters and glued to their screens. I think this is unironically the most realistic scenario for mankind lmao

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#306

Post by vivzkestrel »

dash2 wrote: post #302
vivzkestrel wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the article makes a lot of predictions and every single one of em is based on how things work in the USA

What would be different in developing countries?

untracked economy at scale. like a tonne of work, occupation, money is not documented or doesnt enter the system channels

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#307

Post by lins1909 »

trebaud wrote: post #304
taurath wrote: post #267

This is religious fervor folks, as AI 2027 was. I grew up in evangelical christianity, and to them the end of the world is just around the corner, the same way it has been since I was a small child and likely will be when we are all gone. This isn't science. This isn't hypothesis experiment record results. This is very expensive astrology, shiny rock collecting, ritualistic meaning-making and self-justification. Yall…

Or you deeply suffer from normalcy bias. Not believing that AGI is possible is irrational and unscientific imo, the human brain exists, it is not made of magic, it can reproduced. It is as simple as that. We can debate about timelines, architectures that may lead us there, etc... You can even talk all day long about definitions of AGI, and people waste their time doing that. But saying that the human brain cognitive…

How can not believing something that hasn't been proven be unscientific? Do you know that words mean things?

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#308

Post by 0x4A4F4249 »

M0r13n wrote: post #296

Ask ChatGPT: > Generate a realistic image of a bad fitting suit without looking obviously fake Create a new chat and attach the image generated previously: > Please rate my suit You will receive an answer that reads something like this: >7.5/10 — clean, professional, and well coordinated. Yeah, I don't think superintelligence is imminent.

We are only some data centers away

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#309

Post by Smaug123 »

kev009 wrote: post #244

More like AI psychosis 2040. There is zero chance of the 2031 doomer timeline presented, and I would stake a large sum of money on it.

That bet isn't one anyone will take the other side of, surely - how is your counterparty supposed to collect if they win? I guess you'd propose effectively supplying a loan with a massive interest rate?

Re: AI 2040: Plan A

#310

Post by JumpCrisscross »

trebaud wrote: post #304
taurath wrote: post #267

This is religious fervor folks, as AI 2027 was. I grew up in evangelical christianity, and to them the end of the world is just around the corner, the same way it has been since I was a small child and likely will be when we are all gone. This isn't science. This isn't hypothesis experiment record results. This is very expensive astrology, shiny rock collecting, ritualistic meaning-making and self-justification. Yall…

Or you deeply suffer from normalcy bias. Not believing that AGI is possible is irrational and unscientific imo, the human brain exists, it is not made of magic, it can reproduced. It is as simple as that. We can debate about timelines, architectures that may lead us there, etc... You can even talk all day long about definitions of AGI, and people waste their time doing that. But saying that the human brain cognitive…

> Not believing that AGI is possible

One can simultaneously believe AGI is possible, be only modestly sceptical that our current methods are likely to yield it in the near term and still find the religious ferocity enveloping its discussion silly.

> saying that the human brain cognitive capabilities cannot be reproduced on other types of substrates is stupid at this point

Straw man. Nobody argued this. The discussion is around how urgent it is to policy treat a future hypothetical.

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