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Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

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Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#301

Post by trumpdong »

maxbond wrote: post #244
A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think prediction markets could serve a similar to a futures markets and have a functional purpose in the economy. It could be useful to generate real time estimates of the probability of some events that no one can control and have real economic consequences, like a hurricane. Even though nobody can control them, some people can predict them better than others. (Meteorologists with good models and supercomputers,…

Insider trading by, say, having direct access to the particular wind vane that grounds the market and being able to manipulate it is a problem. Being better at trading because you have better models or better computers isn't per se a problem. Any more than it's a problem if someone is a better poker player. In a broader context this may contribute to income inequality and regulatory capture, it can have negative exte…

Coinbase CEO said all the words on Polymarket at end of Q3 earnings call: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:2eb9f98ac094b...

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#302

Post by trumpdong »

RugnirViking wrote: post #259
m00dy wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you may be confusing it with deregulation.

only lawyers care what the laws say. I care about what's right and good and leads to prosperity for people I care about (which is to a greater or lesser extent everyone) It's the lawyers job to make the laws align with some version of the above, and many of them, like most other people with power in society, are doing a willfully terrible job of it

This is not correct. It's a politician's job to make them selfrich by any means necessary. It's a lawyer's job to make you pay for as many hours as possible.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#303

Post by trumpdong »

snowpid wrote: post #217
BLKNSLVR wrote: post #215

Facebook and Google really have a lot to answer for. Where's the regulation that's been increasingly needed for the last decade?

Its called DMA and DSA. Much hated by many American HNlers here.

Digital Markets Act and Digital Devices Act in the EU

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#304

Post by everdrive »

So too has nearly everyone else who is peddling someone's interests. Social media currently exists to bend you to someone else's will. This was always true in some sense: newspapers, television, radio, etc, but I'd point out a few things:

- This is precisely what made television such a bad experience. You could really feel the hand reaching through the screen to shake you. Demanding that you feel one way or another. Particularly with commercials, but of course with everything else as well.

- The mediums of television and radio were heavily gate-kept (even with the advent of cable) compared to the internet and social media. You didn't have the insanity of Twitter accounts from east Asia spamming BBC (not the news channel) propaganda, or Russia, Iran, and others attempting to inflame racial hatred, etc.

It's not a wholly brand new thing, but the reach, scale, and variety are so much greater that it might as well be brand new.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#306

Post by karel-3d »

expedition32 wrote: post #269
aucisson_masque wrote: post #147

> He compared the videos to fast-food commercials, where food can appear more appealing than it does in real life. > “We’re depicting what actually happens,” he said. The cope is real. They all know they are destroying lives by promoting gambling to young people and eventually some of them are going to overspend and get addicted. But yeah, it's just like an ad for a burger

It is time to admit that the Chinese were right when they built their great firewall. You either protect yourself from America or your civilization is lost to the void.

Does China have online gambling banned? I don't know

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#307

Post by everdrive »

cj wrote: post #12

I finally gave in to my curiosity and downloaded Kalshi last week to place a few bets on the World Cup. I was blown away how easy it was. I placed a bet with real money within 5 minutes of downloading the app. They allow instant deposits with credit card, and ID verification was real time. I can’t imagine that the extreme accessibility and the typical dark patterns deployed by every popular app won’t eventually end b…

>it showed a promo “would you like to split this payment over 12 month?” and seemingly was only available for that one transaction. So I could have deposited $1000 via CC into Kalshi and paid it back $83/mo over 12 months.

"Would you like to make decisions that are bad for you?" The future is indeed wild, and personal weakness is for sale. This isn't meant as an attack on you, but a lot of people will not be able to manage this sort of reduced friction. People with MBAs will call this "providing value."

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#308

Post by maxbond »

watwut wrote: post #266
maxbond wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're going to gamble, it's probably for the best that your counterparty doesn't also control the platform. I'm not saying that justifies being able to gamble frictionlessly, but it is marginally less exploitative. Eg, back in the day bucket shops (which sold binary options, like prediction markets do) would increase the spread in proportion to their assessment of your skill such that you would lose even if you w…

Futures role is not "generate real time estimates of the probability" and never was. They have two roles: actual contracts to deliver later at set price and high risk trading (yes, some peoples use of it is gambling). Futures markets at do in fact have the actual market component. Prediction markets don't. If you want meteorological prediction, you are way better off buying meteorological prediction from a company th…

I said similar, not identical. The primary role of a futures market is for consumers and producers of commodities to hedge out their risk so that they don't go bankrupt if there's volatility in the market. Speculators (by which I do not mean gamblers) make money in futures markets by acting like insurance companies and absorbing that risk. Hedgers take "losing" trades that are equivalent to paying an insurance premium.

Prediction markets could be interesting to hedge a bunch of weird little things. Alas, not how things have gone so far really.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#309

Post by maxbond »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #276
A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think prediction markets could serve a similar to a futures markets and have a functional purpose in the economy. It could be useful to generate real time estimates of the probability of some events that no one can control and have real economic consequences, like a hurricane. Even though nobody can control them, some people can predict them better than others. (Meteorologists with good models and supercomputers,…

> They're fundamentally broken and the fact that they're allowed is a sign and symptom of a dysfunctional society. There are two ways to view a market (prediction or stock): as socially accepted gambling for posh elites (and now every wannabe rich), and as a prediction engine that refines people's opinions, beliefs and information into a most accurate estimate possible. If you take the first view, insider trading is…

You won't incorporate information from outsiders if they think they're going to get ripped off by insiders.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#310

Post by [deleted] »

streetfighter64 wrote: post #264
walthamstow wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only defense is parenting. And no, I'm not one of those childless people who tells parents to parent better.

"Parenting" is a nebulous concept and at least to me, it also includes pushing for better laws for children. Nobody would think it's reasonable to allow stores to sell cigarettes to children and tell parents "if you don't like it, just don't let your kids smoke".

[deleted]
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