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Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

economist.com

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Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#301

Post by FeteCommuniste »

DrBazza wrote: post #65
Waterluvian wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are the experts who were wrong. These are the experts who are right. We sacked the experts who are wrong and replaced them with the experts who are right. “How do we know they’re right?” I hear you ask. We know because we who are wrong and these ones aren’t them. So they can’t make wrong predictions because those who make wrong predictions have been sacked.

Channeling your inner Douglas Adams.

Got a Monty Python vibe: https://youtu.be/79TVMn_d_Pk?si=x2yAyxKNJDow8enp&t=124

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#302

Post by 3836293648 »

truthbe wrote: post #175

Like my grandfather used to say "They let anyone on TV now", They let anyone be called an expert now. Love talking about 'recursive self-improvement' of a prediction engine. What about 'recursive self-degradation'?

They don't throw away the weights. If it gets worse just use an older model.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#303

Post by Valakas_ »

tedggh wrote: post #166

Why should we assume AI can rapidly turn into super intelligence when physical and critical resources like energy and materials remain under human control?

Imagine a smart monkey talking to other smart monkeys trying to figure out how humans would ever be able to escape the (simple) prison they built for them. The humans would find a way to escape. No matter how ingenious the monkeys think they are.

You're asking a question, to which you (and most humans) don't know the answer, and you're (wrongly) assuming a being much more intelligent than you also wouldn't. And by "much more" i don't mean the difference between Einstein and a common person. I mean the difference between a hamster and a common person.

We are still humans, and what we have achieved today would be considered magic by any standards for someone in the medieval ages. Now imagine a super intelligent being and doing something that we, today, would consider magic. It's not farfetched at all. We already have that now vs medieval ages.

You need a similar degree of open mindedness and imagination to be able to discern what such an intelligence being would be capable of.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#305

Post by ceejayoz »

ShinyLeftPad wrote: post #223
falcor84 wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll use this opportunity to recommend The Selfish Gene, which puts forward a strong argument for how the actual competitive battlefield on Earth is between genes, while us humans and everything else we call "life" are their "survival machines" (read: technology that they use).

I recommend to also read criticism of why selfish gene needs to be taken with a suitable grain of salt. Also the author currently believes Claude is conscious, apparently because LLM output contained enough flattery.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_disease strikes again.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#306

Post by pfdietz »

duskdozer wrote: post #245
lolftw wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think most people would understand something like living "side by side with cars". Even if not alive, you can live very close and shape your life by and with technology. I don't take any issue with the OP's formulation.

And Americans' lives have been heavily shaped by cars and the car industry in a negative way. So, a pretty apt comparison.

And also in a positive way. I mean, it's not personal teleportation, but it sometimes feels like it.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#307

Post by peddling-brink »

bubblegumcrisis wrote: post #300
cobbzilla wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The first time an AI goes rogue, figures out subterfuge, blackmails a human to do its real-world bidding, will be a defining moment.

I think, the defining moment will be when one AI convinces another AI to convince third AI to do something. This might seem like I'm writing a nonsense, but read it again.

I’ve read it twice now and I don’t see.. oh.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#308

Post by nopinsight »

hnthrow0287345 wrote: post #294
nopinsight wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ten years ago, most of the skeptics in these threads would have said the success of AlphaFold 3 was impossible.

They'll only get to claim a hollow victory because AGI is impossible to rigorously define. None of the regulating bodies of consumer products will be able to define it better than academics. They'll use marketing to make those claims and there will be legal battles that keep it in a gray area. They'll go for that because it's easier than actually inventing the 'sci-fi' AGI, shareholders keep making money, and it keep…

Demis' bar is high and he stated clearly multiple times: AGI should be capable of inventing truly novel things. Examples he gave included the Theory of General Relativity and the game of Go.

Just a taste of what's to come: https://openai.com/index/model-disproves-discrete-geometry-c...

Anthropic's latest model also solved this 80-year-old problem that eluded many expert mathematicians, in a different way, according to one of its employees.

Remember we still have 4 years until 2030.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#309

Post by nopinsight »

hnthrow0287345 wrote: post #294
nopinsight wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ten years ago, most of the skeptics in these threads would have said the success of AlphaFold 3 was impossible.

They'll only get to claim a hollow victory because AGI is impossible to rigorously define. None of the regulating bodies of consumer products will be able to define it better than academics. They'll use marketing to make those claims and there will be legal battles that keep it in a gray area. They'll go for that because it's easier than actually inventing the 'sci-fi' AGI, shareholders keep making money, and it keep…

Quite frustrating to see all these cynical, borderline-irrational comments on HN. Maybe I should do what pg and other ex-HN contributors have done--avoid taking part in the discussions here.

The level of discourse here has dropped so much.

At least I should stop replying to people hiding under throwaway accounts.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#310

Post by Valakas_ »

nopinsight wrote: post #115

"Ten years from now, I think we will realize that we were standing in the foothills of the singularity now... I believe that we're only a few years away from [AGI], maybe 2030 plus or minus a year... I think [AGI] will be an enormous transformative technology, it's going to effectively be a new human era... We can feel this year, I would say, even though I've been working towards this for 30 years, I think this year…

"(...) it's going to effectively be a new human era..."

We never like it when we realize the universe doesn't circle around us.

At first we got mad to discover the Earth wasn't the center of the Solar system.

Then we got mad that the solar system wasn't even unique.

And now we're still clinging to the idea that humans always will be the most intelligent species or the only ones gifted with "creativity".

And soon we might also come to realize it might not be a new human era, but the end of it (if we're not careful).

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