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Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

normaltech.ai

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Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

#301

Post by zuzululu »

thewhitetulip wrote: post #124
Yokohiii wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Now everybody has superpowers. I think that it's very odd how AI enthusiasts misinterpret the situation. If it turns out to be good enough to produce greenfield projects with agentic coding, then it will not only affect developers, but also whole companies and whole business sectors. The whole dev agency business model is only there because less technical companies don't know how to deal with software, others are j…

Also quickly writing say a ReactJS app will cost a lot of tokens for debugging because the 1 or 2 people who deliver 10 people's work surely don't have the time and understanding of the code base!

this is a good example of how the optics as business owners and laborers are arbitraged successfully again and again.

almost all businesses do not care about your opinion of codebase or quality. they just want it to work and not fail.

on top of that the token costs are dropping as AI giants fight over marketshare.

Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

#302

Post by prerok »

mattbettinson wrote: post #212
corndoge wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am tired of reading this comment

Its a HN truism, now, though.

I think it now has a slightly different lens. The DropBox argument was that anyone can build this in five minutes, so why use this? Now, with LLMs, the argument is that anyone can build its own.

I have to say I find it pretty funny.

Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

#303

Post by anonzzzies »

borski wrote: post #230
anonzzzies wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess maybe it's your definition of 'software engineers' ; if you meant that to mean people who know what they are doing, then there is a massive gap. However if you mean people who are hired as software engineer/developer then it's already replacing many and will replace many more. Many of these are worth absolutely nothing and never have been. They survived because software was considered magic and they talk a lo…

That was just as true a decade ago, and two decades ago, as it is today. Bad “software engineers” have always existed. That hasn’t changed.

Sure, but now they will be LLMs , which is the point; they won't be millions of humans who get paid. The point of GP was that it doesn't replace programmers; it does and will more so, at scale, because LLMs are better than all the bad ones and that's the majority, by far.

Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

#304

Post by esafak »

zeroonetwothree wrote: post #132
vitally3643 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we're not too many years away from the end state of software. We already collectively produce more software than anyone really wants, and the bulk of it is anywhere between garbage and outright fraud, if not actively malicious. The end state, I think, is that everyone who needs small software to manage a todo list or synchronize files, or whatever "normal" people do, will end up with bespoke personalized soft…

This has "why pay for Dropbox" vibes.

I don't. Do you?

Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

#305

Post by sdellis »

Brendinooo wrote: post #163
JimDabell wrote: post #65

We have been aggressively and enthusiastically automating away software engineering for the entire history of the computer industry. Every time we do so, we are able to build bigger, better things more quickly. When this happens, our work becomes more valuable and expectations rise to match. The world’s appetite for software has been insatiable so far. AI hasn’t replaced software engineers because every time we becom…

>e.g. front-end web development It's kind of funny that you say this, because I am a frontend developer and I tend to see the state of the art as being very good at doing the boring behind-the-scenes plumbing that I don't care about, and not great at doing the kind of bespoke design work that my day job's clients want. I'm not saying that either of us are definitively right or wrong, and I agree that having a more ge…

I agree with you. Maybe AI can generate designs that look moderately good and aesthetically pleasing for UIs that solve known problems in a prototypical way.[0] That is useful, especially for simple utilities, internal tools, or hobby projects. However, I have yet to see AI solve new design problems, improve on old problems, and create a unique design style that defines a brand and separates it from competition.

[0] https://research.google/pubs/the-role-of-visual-complexity-a...

Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

#306

Post by allajfjwbwkwja »

tossandthrow wrote: post #157
JimDabell wrote: post #65

We have been aggressively and enthusiastically automating away software engineering for the entire history of the computer industry. Every time we do so, we are able to build bigger, better things more quickly. When this happens, our work becomes more valuable and expectations rise to match. The world’s appetite for software has been insatiable so far. AI hasn’t replaced software engineers because every time we becom…

Quite a few developers will likely loose their jobs. In particular the ones who don't have mental capacity to work with models - the ones who are forever junior. The engineers who can manage large scale projects using agents will, on the other hand, probably get a hefty salary bump.

> the ones who don't have mental capacity to work with models

Those people don't exist.

Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

#307

Post by thewhitetulip »

zuzululu wrote: post #301
thewhitetulip wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also quickly writing say a ReactJS app will cost a lot of tokens for debugging because the 1 or 2 people who deliver 10 people's work surely don't have the time and understanding of the code base!

this is a good example of how the optics as business owners and laborers are arbitraged successfully again and again. almost all businesses do not care about your opinion of codebase or quality. they just want it to work and not fail. on top of that the token costs are dropping as AI giants fight over marketshare.

Token costs are reducing for Chinese models, yes. Claude costs are going up!

Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

#308

Post by bilater »

vitally3643 wrote: post #92
JimDabell wrote: post #65

We have been aggressively and enthusiastically automating away software engineering for the entire history of the computer industry. Every time we do so, we are able to build bigger, better things more quickly. When this happens, our work becomes more valuable and expectations rise to match. The world’s appetite for software has been insatiable so far. AI hasn’t replaced software engineers because every time we becom…

I think we're not too many years away from the end state of software. We already collectively produce more software than anyone really wants, and the bulk of it is anywhere between garbage and outright fraud, if not actively malicious. The end state, I think, is that everyone who needs small software to manage a todo list or synchronize files, or whatever "normal" people do, will end up with bespoke personalized soft…

This is like saying we only need 100 websites when the internet came out. We have no idea what second third fourth order effects of frictionless and abundance are. What you think is software itself will change.

Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

#309

Post by nitwit005 »

rkozik1989 wrote: post #138
JimDabell wrote: post #65

We have been aggressively and enthusiastically automating away software engineering for the entire history of the computer industry. Every time we do so, we are able to build bigger, better things more quickly. When this happens, our work becomes more valuable and expectations rise to match. The world’s appetite for software has been insatiable so far. AI hasn’t replaced software engineers because every time we becom…

"The world’s appetite for software has been insatiable so far." Yeah, I don't that does not necessarily mean everyone is looking for the latest and greatest. Many businesses are still reliant on technologies like custom spreadsheets and Microsoft Access because they do exactly what they want them to do, have a fixed rate, and rarely require any additional modifications/maintenance. Once you step outside of the bubble…

The classic pattern is they become a larger company, and either those processes stop working well, or a custom solution becomes worthwhile due to scale.

The row count limit in Excel has been hit many times over the years.

Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

#310

Post by ChrisLTD »

JimDabell wrote: post #65

We have been aggressively and enthusiastically automating away software engineering for the entire history of the computer industry. Every time we do so, we are able to build bigger, better things more quickly. When this happens, our work becomes more valuable and expectations rise to match. The world’s appetite for software has been insatiable so far. AI hasn’t replaced software engineers because every time we becom…

I agree with most of what you're saying, but it's also funny that front-end developers are catching strays in your conclusion. As long as human beings are interfacing with software, there's going to be a lot of judgement and nuance necessary for building good UIs. Data structures, back-end infra, can all be alien and still work. But your UI can't be alien.
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