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US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

bbc.com

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Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#301

Post by caminante »

wak90 wrote: post #282
WarmWash wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The saving grace is that China (well modern living CCP members) have never had an armed conflict. China's military ranks are people who got there by playing politics and bending exercises to their benefit rather than showing battlefield competence. There are no war vets or experienced players. So while they might have incredible man power and manufacturing capability, everyone in that first battle will be seeing batt…

How is that "saving grace" in any way

It's in direct response to the parent

> I shudder to think just how badly we will be outmatched in a shooting war with China.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#302

Post by esseph »

baggy_trough wrote: post #77
AntiUSAbah wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your comment adding to this discussion? Do you want to say, that a specific small group of people are positive about a surge in energy costs? How does that reflect your acceptance of the overall climate change topic you are referencing? You do not believe in it? Or do you believe in it but you do not care? Like the latest AMOC paper doesn't bother you in particular? Am I a climate activist if i think its very…

I just think it's amusing that this is presented as a very bad thing in the context of Trump, but it's what climate activists have been seeking (only more so). When climate activists pursue this goal, it's presented as a laudable self sacrifice we must accept.

Reduction of fossil fuels is a good thing, but the "how" and "why" and "when" matter a lot.

This nonsense never should have happened. This was dumb as fuck.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#303

Post by programjames »

swat535 wrote: post #246
mgfist wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. I wouldn't jump to conclusions yet. The war is not over. I wouldn't even be so sure as to say Iran is in a good place right now. Iran can absorb more pain than the US, but even that has a deadline. For the US, the only pain is inflation, which is more a matter of political capital than anything tangible. Trump is a lame duck preside…

> Iran can absorb more pain than the US, but even that has a deadline. It doesn't. This is the western mentality, thinking you are dealing with sane people. I'm from Iran (now living in the West), there's a famous Shia motto: "Every day is Ashura, every land is Karbala". Around 30% of the population are die hard IRGC supporters, another 10% are neutral and the rest don't like the regime. The problem is that, the war…

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Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#304

Post by onlypassingthru »

hackable_sand wrote: post #236
jmward01 wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Short, medium and long-term this will spur the world to move off of fossil fuels. I'm not a fan of war, especially this stupid one, but that one benefit may be, unintentionally, worth it.

It's nice to be optimistic, but we already have incentives to upgrade to renewable energy.

Short of fuel rationing and gas lines, over $150/week to fill your SUV is probably the biggest incentive possible.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#305

Post by watwut »

mgfist wrote: post #273
swat535 wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran can absorb more pain than the US, but even that has a deadline. It doesn't. This is the western mentality, thinking you are dealing with sane people. I'm from Iran (now living in the West), there's a famous Shia motto: "Every day is Ashura, every land is Karbala". Around 30% of the population are die hard IRGC supporters, another 10% are neutral and the rest don't like the regime. The problem is that, the war…

> It doesn't. This is the western mentality, thinking you are dealing with sane people. I'm not talking about sanity. I understand that the IRGC is greater than the sum of the parts and that no individual life matters. I'm talking about the oil wells. The IRGC may not care about human life, but you need money to stay in power. Money that will disappear the longer you can't sell your oil and the more oils you have to…

> I don't believe you. Do you have proof? Iran is pretty damn closed off from the rest of the world so I have a hard time believing that you have some great insider knowledge about this.

They are not entirely closed off. Apparently there is a communication going on around closures, because I have seen fairly inside Iran info in French media (about executions, about people leaving Teheran etc etc). They are more guarded and dont do strong statements as OP. It is not possible to establish general what people in general think under current conditions. The executions are still going on, no one will randomly admit they are against irgc. But, they are fairly consistent with what he said.

The other consistent thing I heard in interviews (this time by British media) is that Iran is very nationalistic. Even people who hate regime are proud of Iran itself. That makes them more prone toward rally around the flag.

And unfortunately, America made it clear it wants to harm average Iranian. Plus its idea of regime change is to keep regime intact and change head (see Venezuela), so there is no one who would had actual reason to want America win.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#306

Post by spwa4 »

laweijfmvo wrote: post #82
kingleopold wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

offical inflation numbers are just LIE and wrongg for decades. Now you see it yourself. Via wrong numbers, they steal trillions

you’re not totally wrong but it’s not the outright lie you seem to imply. things like tweaks to the “standard basket” that they claim are in line with consumer preferences, which themselves changed because of inflation, for example, are one way we get a sort of hidden shrink flation.

Oh the reason it is a lie, of course, is not so much the number itself but the fact that it gets redefined, most recently with the purpose of a "robust updating". The new definition of inflation, of course, always seem to define inflation lower.

I seem to have read an article that states that by the 1980s measure inflation hit 15%. Other alternative measures go the same way, with the famous big mac index crossing 10%.

In Europe, they seem to do the same, but seem more fans of actually falsifying the underlying figures (like the LIBOR incident, which turned out to raise mortgage payment yet lower inflation)

Asian central banks (by which we mean China) do it yet another way. They simply declare inflation, 4 years ahead of time, to be a certain value. Then inflation is that value. Of course, last time "for some reason" the economic measures that made up the definition of inflation were suddenly declared state secrets.

Of course this may just be the banks moving at different speeds. Europe used to fix it's inflation problems by redefining what inflation was. They moved on to falsifying data. I guess that's just what's in the FED's future.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#307

Post by dh2022 »

mgfist wrote: post #273
swat535 wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran can absorb more pain than the US, but even that has a deadline. It doesn't. This is the western mentality, thinking you are dealing with sane people. I'm from Iran (now living in the West), there's a famous Shia motto: "Every day is Ashura, every land is Karbala". Around 30% of the population are die hard IRGC supporters, another 10% are neutral and the rest don't like the regime. The problem is that, the war…

> It doesn't. This is the western mentality, thinking you are dealing with sane people. I'm not talking about sanity. I understand that the IRGC is greater than the sum of the parts and that no individual life matters. I'm talking about the oil wells. The IRGC may not care about human life, but you need money to stay in power. Money that will disappear the longer you can't sell your oil and the more oils you have to…

Re: "I'm talking about the oil wells. The IRGC may not care about human life, but you need money to stay in power." US stopped bombing Iranian oil infrastructure after Iran responded by bombing and taking out a bunch of Qatar's LNG infrastructure for a good 3-5 years [0]. So this problem at least is solved for IRGC.

Re: "I don't believe you. Do you have proof?" - you come off as un-necessary rude and aggressive. You are assuming GP lies - and that is not a good attitude. You could re-phrase your question in a way to make people engage with you.

Re: "If that were true, why are you not traveling to Iran to join the IRGC right now?" Do you understand that Iranians living in the US have different choices than Iranians living in Iran?

[0] https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/19/iran-attack-qatar-lng-capaci...

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#308

Post by giantg2 »

mint5 wrote: post #253
giantg2 wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"What do you mean by this?" Pretty simple - an overall increase of 1% inflation is attributed to food and fuel.

Umm okay so many other aspects of the cpi respond slower and this is a recent shock… Food and fuel are more sensitive and respond first. There’s been no time for the effects to really get into the others. And Food and fuel having huge jumps in inflation is major visible pain for consumers.

Yes, and that volatility is why economists exclude fuel and food from core CPI.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#309

Post by cmxch »

khriss wrote: post #32

I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates…

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Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#310

Post by programjames »

anonymars wrote: post #99
mothballed wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I voted for the only candidate (Chase Oliver) that appeared on my ballot that was basically 100% certain to not get us into wars, and I've had absolute vitriol spewed at me (including here on HN) because I was informed it was a default to Trump. There's no way to act where you won't be hated by someone. Even if you stop paying taxes for the bombs someone will scream that you hate old people or the children.

Idealism is for the primaries. You knew with certainty that Chase Oliver wasn't going to win the presidency, which meant you were okay with either of the two candidates that definitely was going to win the presidency

Maybe not this year. The next cycle though will better pander to Chase Oliver voters.
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