UAE to leave OPEC • Hacker News Board

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#301

Post by ccozan » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 4:50 PM UTC

don_esteban wrote: post #263

nine_k wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US, or Saudi Arabia, or Venezuela, or Russia could very well be energy independent on fossil fuels alone, even though that won't be wise. Europe, or China, or India could not though.

China is making great strides in renewables and investing in nuclear (and in electrification of transport). It can be energy independent in not too distant future. India has geography for solar, and the human/industrial capability for nuclear. Southern Europe can go solar as well. Northern Europe has it tougher (except Norway, with its abundant hydro). Nuclear could work. Or long range DC cables from South Europe or…

This is already happening [1]. I think even an UK connection is in works.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spain-Morocco_interconnection

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#302

Post by jagraff » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 4:50 PM UTC

Muromec wrote: post #290

jagraff wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed - the good news is, in many circumstances renewable energy is cheaper for new energy capacity. As long as regulations move in the right direction, we are likely to see the global energy mix move towards renewable sources over time

it doesn't have to be cheaper to be a problem, as long as somebody still makes money on it and corruption still exists. And corruption is one of those annoying problems that dont go away easy

I think right now, the vast majority of oil use is not because of corrupt officials using oil energy despite the fact that cheaper energy sources are available. Maybe that problem will eventually be a sticking point in removing all carbon-emitting energy sources, but right now the barrier is mostly production capacity and the scale of capital investment required to roll out renewables at scale. But if (as seems to be the case now) rolling out renewables is more profitable than rolling out additional fossil fuel use, the capital should become increasingly available. That's why I'm optimistic, even though of course there are a lot of challenges ahead in terms of creating a truly sustainable future.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#303

Post by Teever » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 4:54 PM UTC

stickfigure wrote: post #278

post-it wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is, respectfully, corporate propaganda. Consumers buy the vehicles that are available and advertised. It's in the best interest of manufacturers to convince/compel consumers to buy larger, more expensive vehicles with higher margins, and that's exactly what they're doing.

If gasoline is more expensive, customers will demand more efficient vehicles. We aren't mindless zombies buying whatever we see on TV. I'm old enough to remember when Japanese small cars practically took over the market in the 70s and 80s due to gas price shocks. It can happen again.

> We aren't mindless zombies buying whatever we see on TV.

But we are. I don't want to turn this into a political slap fight but it became apparent to me the extent in which people are swayed by advertising when I read an article that talked about how one party in the US was concerned that the other was going to win an important seat becase the other party had done a recent spending surge on ads in last few days before election day and they were concerned that they couldn't match it.

That article right there forever changed my view of the average person on the street. In a highly polarized campaign and political environment with months to years of knowing who the candidates and policies are and they can still be swayed by millions in TV and radio ads? Like it sounds like these people could literally be on their way to vote for a candidate and then switch their mind at the last second because they hear an ad on the radio as they're pulling into the polling station.

That's absurd -- but it's real.

People are completely enthralled by advertisements to the point where they'll buy a stupid truck that they can't fit anywhere, that they need a ladder to climb into, that has terrible sight lines, simply because advertising tells them to.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#304

Post by cma » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 4:57 PM UTC

nkmnz wrote: post #204

slibhb wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Virtually all Arabs hate Israel but Arab governments are more varied. The modern Egyptian state is oriented toward close partnership with the US, and a large part of that was peace with Israel post '73. So yes, the UAE could align with both.

[flagged]

If they join a religion that isn't on the state approved list, they can't get married there and hard or extra expensive to get buried. There are some limits on religious freedom.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#305

Post by testing22321 » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 4:57 PM UTC

stickfigure wrote: post #278

post-it wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is, respectfully, corporate propaganda. Consumers buy the vehicles that are available and advertised. It's in the best interest of manufacturers to convince/compel consumers to buy larger, more expensive vehicles with higher margins, and that's exactly what they're doing.

If gasoline is more expensive, customers will demand more efficient vehicles. We aren't mindless zombies buying whatever we see on TV. I'm old enough to remember when Japanese small cars practically took over the market in the 70s and 80s due to gas price shocks. It can happen again.

> customers will demand more efficient vehicles

The problem is those vehicles don’t exist, because the manufacturers only want to build the high margin gas guzzlers.

Look at fuel economy of US made vehicles vs those in Europe. It’s beyond a joke.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#306

Post by mgolawala » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 4:59 PM UTC

Ifkaluva wrote: post #179

Can somebody knowledgeable help me understand why this is in the interests of the UAE? Also, seems like a moot point since the strait is closed. Why do they think it’s in their best interests, and why now?

Just my hunch but Iran is a founding member of OPEC.

The UAE has had a long standing land dispute with Iran.

The recent barrage of missiles might have just pushed the UAE leadership to have lost patience with their northern neighbor.

This might be an act of protest.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#307

Post by athrowaway3z » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 5:01 PM UTC

Ifkaluva wrote: post #179

Can somebody knowledgeable help me understand why this is in the interests of the UAE? Also, seems like a moot point since the strait is closed. Why do they think it’s in their best interests, and why now?

It was initially more union-esque to prevent being played off against each other and a dash of ideology. Then it became a cartel with the goal to to increase income / stabilize the market as well as a general international-economic-political forum because so much of their economies depend on oil.

Production limits were always a bit shady. Most meetings were just nations declaring what they'd (be able to) do and then a lot of talking to maybe see if things could be tweaked a bit and come up with a statement that made it look useful.

Their last 'success' was before Russia-Ukraine where they basically tried to suppress the price to make US shale too expensive and reduce its market share. Which happened. But again, debatable to what extend by OPEC's influence while they do write their own press release - with the explicit goal that the perception of power increases the price more.

Currently the entire region is going up in flames and allegiances are being stressed to breaking point.

The UAE leaving - as far as i can tell - is just a middle finger telling some of the club members its a farce and useless when it comes to its goals and (soft) powers, in the new reality of war & US export dominance. The middle finger being a political signal as everyone seems to be in disagreement on how best to handle the Israel-US-Iran war.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#308

Post by neoromantique » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 5:01 PM UTC

HWR_14 wrote: post #108

TacticalCoder wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, nuclear. These are more than ripe to disrupt energy into the 21st century. Yes and we've seen negative electricity price in some EU countries a few days ago : very sunny days but not too warm, perfect for solar panels. Supply surpassing consumption: negative electricity prices. While we're, supposedly, living through an energy crisis. There may oil shipment issues and there are issue…

The problem is that grid scale power plants can't just turn on when the sun isn't shining. If the negative prices during the day and positive prices at night lead to energy storage, then it's a solution. Otherwise, it's just a glut at some times of day.

>The problem is that grid scale power plants can't just turn on when the sun isn't shining

They can, though? Batteries can offset the start-up times, otherwise gas plants can start up within minutes and nuclear can ramp up within days

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#309

Post by elictronic » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 5:01 PM UTC

dgrin91 wrote: post #5

My guess is that is this because UAE has ports on the other side of Hormuz and doesn't want to be restricted in their usage by OPEC? Does this mean UAE thinks Hormuz will be a problem for a long time? And what does it mean for oil prices long term?

It means the UAE is pissed Iran attacked it then tried to block all passage through UAE controlled waters.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#310

Post by ceejayoz » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 5:06 PM UTC

deepsun wrote: post #288

ceejayoz wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All that may be true. Also true: If Egypt opened the border and Israel objected, Israel would take swift military action.

No, why? Israel would celebrate. But NONE of the Arab countries want to help Gaza people really.

> No, why? Israel would celebrate.

This is directly contradicted by Israel's actions in the Gaza War. Egyptian control of the crossing was not enough, so they took it. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/israel-ra...