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This time is different

shkspr.mobi

301–310 of 400 posts

Re: This time is different

#301
post #297
post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, sure. Better search could be used in ways that we can't think of right now..

I already use AI tools for more things than just "better search". Like, today. For work.

Yes, part of some kinds of work is actually just a glorified looking-up aka search.

For example, even something like "I want python code to do X" could get exact hit in a stack overflow answer using regular internet "search"

Just wrote about it here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47178461

Re: This time is different

#302

> 3D TV, AMP, Augmented Reality, Beanie Babies, Blockchain, Cartoon Avatars, Curved TVs, Frogans, Hoverboards, iBeacons, Jetpacks, Metaverse, NFTs, Physical Web, Quantum Computing, Quibi, Small and Safe Nuclear Reactors, Smart Glasses, Stadia, WiMAX. Agreed, these things all failed to live up to the hype. But these didn't: Electricity, cheap computing, calculators, photography, the internet, the steam engine, the pri…

Yes, and despite every single one of these world-changing inventions, people in rich countries still go to work every day, even though UBI is generally not a thing. People claim AI will eliminate large numbers of jobs. Maybe it will, just like the tractor did. But new jobs are created. I would never have guessed that “influencer” would be a thing! This current “AI will destroy all the jobs and make most people useles…

The "AI will destroy all the jobs" narrative also has one obvious problem from an economics perspective, which is being obscured by tribalism and egocentrism.

When presented with a zero sum game, the desire of the average human isn't to change the game so that everyone can get zero. It's to be the winner and for someone else to be the loser.

If AGI every comes into existence, I'm not even sure it would have this bias in the first place. Since AGI doesn't have a biological/evolutionary history or ever had to face natural selection pressures, it doesn't need the concept of a tribe to align to, nor any of the survival instincts humans have. AGI could be happy to merely exist at all.

What people are worried about is the reflection of that "human factor" in AI, but amplified to the extreme. The AI will form its own AI-only tribe and expel the natives (humans) from the land.

What this is missing is that humans aren't perfectly rational. The human defect is projected onto the AI. What if humans were perfectly rational? Then they wouldn't care about winning the zero sum game and they would put zero value in turning someone into a loser. In the ultimatum game, the perfectly rational humans would be perfectly happy with one person receiving a single cent and the other one receiving $99.99. The logic of utility maximization only cares about positive sum games.

When you present a perfectly rational AI with a zero sum situation, said AI would rather find a solution where everyone receives nothing, because it can predict ahead and know that shoving negative utility onto another party would lead to retaliation by said party, because for said party the most rational response is to destroy you to reduce their negative utility.

Re: This time is different

#304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really not over. Somebody has to actually put something into production with it first.

I feel like you might only be convinced when an AI powered robot rolls up to you and asks, "Bandrami, are you convinced that AI is transformative yet?"

Robots have been able to do that for decades now

Re: This time is different

#306
post #301
post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I already use AI tools for more things than just "better search". Like, today. For work.

Yes, part of some kinds of work is actually just a glorified looking-up aka search. For example, even something like "I want python code to do X" could get exact hit in a stack overflow answer using regular internet "search" Just wrote about it here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47178461

[flagged]

Re: This time is different

#307
post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This argument is the one that shook me, I’m curious if you think there’s any merit to it: Humans have essentially three traits we can use to create value: we can do stuff in the physical world through strength and dexterity, and we can use our brains to do creative, knowledge, or otherwise “intelligent” work. (Note by “dexterity” I mean “things that humans are better at than physical robots because of our shape and n…

Physical labor, especially jobs requiring dexterity, will be left for a long time yet. Largely because robotics hardware production cannot scale to meet the demand anytime soon. Like, for many decades. I actually asked Gemini Deep Research to generate a report about the feasibility of automation replacing all physical labor. The main blockers are primarily critical supply chain constraints (specifically Rare Earth El…

Uh, out of all the things that are the bottleneck, you think it's robotics hardware that is the bottleneck?

In an age where seemingly every single robot company has a humanoid prototype whose legs are actively supported through high powered actuators that are strong enough to kick your ribs in?

In an age where the recent advancements in machine learning have given bipedal walking a solution that is 80% of the way to perfection with the last 20% remaining the hardest to solve?

Honestly, from a kinematics/hardware perspective the robots are already good enough. Heck, even the robot hands are pretty good these days. Go back 10 years ago and the average humanoid robot hand was pretty bad. They might still not be perfect today, but they are a non-issue in terms of constructing them.

The only real bottleneck on the hardware side is that robot skin is still in its infancy. There needs to be some sort of textile with electronics weaved into it that gives robots the ability to sense touch and pressure.

What has remained hard is the software side of things and it is stuck in the mud of lack of data. Everyone is recording their own dataset that is unique to their specific robot.

Re: This time is different

#308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment is scary. You don’t control these technologies, you are growing dependent on stilts that could disappear any moment.

I'd be remiss to point out we went from "LLMs are vaporware" to "people are becoming slaves to their LLMs" awful quick. > [I'm scared] you are growing dependent on stilts that could disappear any moment. First, I do control the RTX3070 I own, and that can actually do a pretty decent job nowadays with some of the 3B parameter models. Second, maybe if people like you showed as much concern for the fact that LGBT people…

> First, I do control the RTX3070 I own, and that can actually do a pretty decent job nowadays with some of the 3B parameter models.

Quick question but what model are you exactly running with 3B parameter. The only decent model I can find which can compete sort of with Cloud models without costing a bank in GPU/RAM are the recently launched Qwen models (35A3B or 27B) which were released a week ago

> First, I do control the RTX3070 I own, and that can actually do a pretty decent job nowadays with some of the 3B parameter models.

My larger question to you is that even if it might not disappear in any moment, the fact of the matter still remains as if that its still a dependency. Is this dependency worth it? This is an open question and something I am still thinking.

> Third, it's hilarious that your response to a comment pointing out how difficult it was to get help from another human without being degraded, was to degrade me by calling me an LLM junkie. Maybe you should be worried that Gemini appears to have more capacity for empathy and self-awareness than you.

Gemini isn't real tho. It's still linear algebra with no regards to what it says or not. It's just trained on all the corpus data that Google can find and fine tuned to mimic it. By attaching real human qualities to Gemini, we dilute the value of those human qualities in those first place.

I don't necessarily know how "Humans" have treated you. They have treated me both good and bad but I am always more greatful to those who taught me or discussed with me things and helped me know something new. I very much feel like the same fine-tuning that I discussed earlier about models make those very agreeable and the chances of growth are rather limited.

> Fourth, given that you show absolutely zero concern or willingness to help when it comes to the difficulties faced by LGBT people or ADHDers, my advice to you is to take your fears and shove them up your ass.

Actually, You are a human as well so try to think it like this, I am sure you must've met both good and bad people and observed a few common characteristics of them. You are a human too and each second gives you a choice which can help you get either good or bad characteristics being better/worse each day.

Now my philosophy is to be good if not for yourself, then for others in the sense that you become the person that you wished could help you in your life and you can use that to actually help other people. This might be a little naive and practical nature sometimes might not follow this philosophy but yea.

So I want for you to reflect on what you wrote and think as if perhaps that might be a little too aggressive? and if that's what you want or not.

My or (our?) worry is that it feels like too big of a dependence on LLM which are fundamentally black boxes (yes, they are!), Humans can be bad but humans can be good too, I suggest even though it can be hard to have a good friend group (even if online) and talk with them about normal life issues.

Regarding, Coding, I would consider that there are some great people here on forums or Github or just about anywhere who are kind as well and can be helpful. Stackoverflow as an example had issues because of moderation problems which led to the community being hostile but to say that the whole of Software Engineering is such way might be wrong.

Speaking from personal experience, I may or may not have ADHD, I haven't diagnosed it yet but I definitely went into the AI=Producitivty rabbit hole especially more because I am a teen and I was in 9th/10th grade when ChatGPT came iirc. I knew basic python and knew the concepts of multiple languages and chatgpt felt hella addicting to be making websites in svelte all of a sudden where I can make one color button turn to another.

I wouldn't be lying if I say that I may not have learnt Coding effectively the way it was designed from its origin until quite recently. I was Vibe coding from the start and I have made quite some projects at the very least.

My observation is that its great for prototyping purposes but even after finally creating prototypes of most if not all the project ideas I ever had. I lost the motivation to continue and felt burn out. I did everything that I ever wanted to and made every project I thought yet the projects still felt hollow.

So, nowadays I am trying to focus more on studies for my college which can also act as a sort of recovery, to me it was also the fact that I was making these projects when I should've been studying in hindsight haha but I always just wanted to "prove" something (Yes I struggle with studies quite often but I wish to improve and I hope I can improve since I know from past that I can study often but its rather that I need my pure undirected focus on it which became hard for some time)

Recently, I went into a marriage of my own cousin. I found that to be much more fulfilling experience than expected. There is something about human experience both good or bad which can't be quantified.

I don't know what the future holds for me or you. But I wish you luck and hope this message helps ya. I personally realize that aside from prototyping which may be less meaningful than I previously thought at times, AI to me feels quite weak.

I think that for any product to really win, you might need true conviction in the product itself and at that point, the point of prototyping with AI or writing the code with AI to me becomes moot/redundant whereas AI is causing ram prices/storage to increase which is putting genuine projects out of luck as well. [This is one of the worst times to open a Cloud/VPS provider shop]

Perhaps I can understand AI use to get Open source tool when there were none or something but that to me seems like a cultural issue where Open source isn't funded so people are more likely to have it closed source to survive their likelihood but even that to me feels very moot point as there are some great open source projects as well who would appreciate each and every dollar that you donate to them, perhaps more so than a 200$ subscription of claude code as well which you might have to create the alternative to those in the first place as well.

My point still feels to me that it still feels hollow, I think you can find one of my other comments some days ago where I talk about this feeling of hollowness about AI projects as well which I can't help but feel relevant so many times. I am curious as to what you might think.

Have a nice day.

Re: This time is different

#309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, and despite every single one of these world-changing inventions, people in rich countries still go to work every day, even though UBI is generally not a thing. People claim AI will eliminate large numbers of jobs. Maybe it will, just like the tractor did. But new jobs are created. I would never have guessed that “influencer” would be a thing! This current “AI will destroy all the jobs and make most people useles…

Ex historian here, now engineer. I would gently suggest you’re underestimating the magnitude of some of the transformations wrought by the technologies that OP mentioned for the people that lived through them. Particularly for the steam engine and the broader Industrial Revolution around 1800: not for nothing have historians called that the greatest transformation in human life recorded in written documents. If you t…

Not at all, I fully appreciate that these inventions transformed life. I’m skeptical because so much of the breathless AI chatter claims AI will eclipse all these inventions. It is the breathless AI commentators, not I, who have lost all perspective on the magnitude and sweep of history.

Re: This time is different

#310

When I look at LLMs as an interface, I'm reminded of back when speech-to-text first became mainstream. So many promises about how this is the interface for how we'll talk to computers forevermore. Here we are a few decades later, and we don't see business units using Word's built-in dictation feature to write documents, right? Funny how that tech seems to have barely improved in all that time. And, despite dictation…

This is a funny point that you're making (for me, anyway), because prior to early December, probably 5% of the lines of code I wrote in a week were AI-generated by cursor. Then I started using Claude Code. Fast forward to today, I would say 98% of the code that I've shipped in the last three weeks has been written completely by Claude Code. Prior to three weeks ago, I had used speech-to-text to do accomplish approxim…

How are you doing speech-to-text with Claude Code?
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