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Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

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Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#301

Kinda glad this is the case. When people go out of their way to avoid common sense they should be punished. Hydrogen is such a terrible idea it was never getting off the ground. There seems to be some kind of psychosis around it being the next oil and therefore greedy people want to get in early on. But this blinds them to the basic chemistry and physics.

Green hydrogen makes sense as a way to ship solar power to places that don't have it.

Using it as a car fuel only makes sense as an interim step to full renewable/EVs.

Internal combustion engines, no matter what the fuel, are way more complicated than electric motors. Doesn't matter how you slice and dice the argument.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#302

Theres something clickbaity and missing from this article, I encourage watching youtubers like 'mirai club' for better info. What i recall from his videos is: - The Mirai made financial sense AS A LEASE for folks in Southern California back in 2022 (possibly 2023) because: - Car prices in general (including EVs) were fairly highly priced at the time due to demand, the chip shortage, etc. - There were clean vehicle in…

There were also really good financing deals during Covid. Net for me after all costs after resale was $1k for the years I owned the car (the 2nd gen).

But I got in near the bottom and got out before the market for it dumped.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#303
post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People looked at how the cost of wind and solar went down and made a assumption that green hydrogen would follow. The reasoning was that the cost of green hydrogen was energy, and thus at some point green hydrogen would be too cheap to meter. The whole energy plan of central/northen Europe, especially Germany, was built for the last several decades on the idea that they would combine wind, solar and cheap natural gas…

I had to Google what is green hydrogen. It is hydrogen produced by electrolysis. If you've already got the electricity for electrolysis, would it not be more efficient and mechanically simpler to store it in a battery and power an electric motor?

Green hydrogen is a way to ship solar power elsewhere that doesn't have it, similar to a battery, but with the advantage of being able to be piped/pumped/liquified etc.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#304

Kinda glad this is the case. When people go out of their way to avoid common sense they should be punished. Hydrogen is such a terrible idea it was never getting off the ground. There seems to be some kind of psychosis around it being the next oil and therefore greedy people want to get in early on. But this blinds them to the basic chemistry and physics.

With solar/wind oligarchs can't charge you every time you charge your EV at home

Hydrogen was meant to replace Oil so that the oligarchs can keep their oligarchy rather than "pull themselves up by bootstraps"

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#305
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ignoring some of the other issues: Imagine we have this electrolysis plant, splitting up water to produce the hydrogen we need for an area. That's fine. But it needs fed electricity to keep the process going. Lots of it. It needs more electrical power to split the water than combining it again produces. So it starts off being energy-negative, and it takes serious electricity to make it happen. Our grid isn't necessar…

It’s not even the grid, by the time you’ve done the electrolysis you’d be better off just charging a battery. Also, compressing and cooling a gas takes another huge hit at the efficiency. Electrolysis comes out at atmospheric pressures. Oh and the platinum electrodes you need… I’m also just now visualising a hydrogen pipeline fire… terrible terrible idea.

It's the everything, yeah. There's a lot working against using hydrogen as the local energy source for automotive propulsion in the world that we presently have.

Some advantages are that a fuel cell that accepts hydrogen and air at one end and emits electricity and water at the other can be lighter-weight than a big battery, and it can [potentially] be refueled quickly for long trips.

Some disadvantages: We need a compressed hydrogen tank -- which isn't as scary to me as it may be for some people, but that's still a new kind of risk we need to carry with us wherever we drive. And we still need a big(ish) battery and the controls for it in order for regen braking to do its thing (which hybrids have shown to be very useful).

And, again, the grid: If it were cheaper/better/efficient to move energy from electrical generating stations to the point of use using buckets [or trucks or trains] of hydrogen, we'd already be doing that. But it isn't. So we just plug stuff in, instead, and use the grid we already have.

A quick Google suggests that a regular 120v US outlet might charge EVs at a rate somewhere in the range of 3 to 5 miles per hour. So a dozen or so hours sitting, plugged in at home every day, is enough to cover most folks' every-day driving. There's far faster methods, but that's something that lots of regular people with a normal commute and normal working hours can already accomplish very easily if they have private parking with an outlet nearby.

For most folks, with most driving, that's all they ever have to do. It shifts concerns about refueling speed from "Yeah, but hydrogen is fast! I waste hardly any time at all while it refills!" to "What refueling stops? I just unplug my car in the morning and go. I haven't needed to stop at gas station in years."

The main advantages of hydrogen are real, but they just aren't very useful compared to other things that we also have.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#306
post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A list of cars that aren't available for purchase yet doesn't disprove the argument that Toyota is late to the game.

They are available for purchase. Toyota is in the game of selling cars. Toyota has been the best selling automaker for the last six years straight. Toyota had record sales last year: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota... It's possible that Toyota understands the car business better than you do.

All of the bz* models you listed are Chinese models, and while the Woodland and C-HR are listed on their US website, they aren't really available for purchase (though I did find one C-HR if I'm willing to drive 500 miles to buy it). Obviously the world auto market is greater than the US, but the US is the leading market for Toyota in terms of total units sold, so it's odd to me that if I drive to the Toyota dealership 10 minutes from my house, their game of selling cars only leaves me with one model to purchase if I'm committed to buying a BEV.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> Know what I’m sayin’. I do, and if I were you I would stop to think about your priors. You have stacked an awful lot of ideas on top of each other to build a world view that has lies, misinformation, and unsound science at the base of it. Worse, a lot of it is selfish, but in a way that only works if the entire global economy is a zero sum game. Enlightened self-interest can be right, and even noble, but only if yo…

All in good spirit:

> 1) Solar is (far) cheaper than fossil fuel's now (for net new electricity)

You’re going to have to show your calculations with references for LCOE - Levelised Cost of Electricity. I’ve run the numbers, you can find them and references in my comment history, and I’m not impressed with solar. Solar needs batteries, or some other type of storage, and there are roughly none of those in service so we can only theoretically predict life time costs. I can’t be fucked repeating myself here at the moment for the benefit of someone who thinks I’m a right wing nut job or whatever. Wind too.

> 2) Giving money more money

Again, you’re going to have to show the numbers here. Prove that an equivalent electric vehicle I need for my job is going to be cheaper on a total cost of ownership basis. This is going to be difficult to prove as there isn’t an equivalent EV that can do the miles per day required. And even if there is, can it do it for 500,000km on the same engine and gearbox / battery whatever? Without getting StacheD[1] in my garage while I sleep? It remains to be seem.

> 3) Pretty much …

No no no. The correct answer is: I’m an Australian living in Australia, reading my own governments policies, the social welfare entitlements to new arrivals, seeing the result of zoning restrictions across the road, and experiencing the results of the locals having a fertility rate below replacement, 100,000 abortions a year, resulting in the “need” to import 500,000 foreigners a year from counties no one wants to live in. I actually prefer white culture, I think it’s better, and that we should import more people from the countries we traditionally have, including India, China, Japan, the Koreas, Vietnam, and the Europeans too. I’m not racists, I just like the level of multiculturalism we had not this shoot up a Jewish festival / pro Palestine bullshit.[2]

4) There's nothing wrong with the trades

No shit cunty. I am a tradesman with … 28 years experience in and adjacent to fabrication / manufacturing / primary industries. I’ve also worked as remote-hands for the likes of Google and Akamai in data centres, so a bit of technical experience. I also have some higher education qualifications, and acquaintances in academia.

> 5) Why in the hell would anyone WANT the manufacturing jobs?

Now listen here mate ;) because lots of people, but particularly men, some women too, enjoy making things, breaking things, building things, and getting dirty. We’ve been doing it for millennia and it’s got us this far. It’s my belief that taking that away from society is going to turn out to be a general bad idea, if it ever eventuates.

> I'm better off now than 10 years ago

So am I, for various reasons. Mostly luck really. But that doesn’t negate the numbers. Houses cost more years of income, food costs more hours of labour, eggs cost more than chickens! on a per kg basis. Rent around here tends to cost more than one third of income, which is the definition of housing stress. I wouldn’t necessarily want to be a young person starting out today. The young people around here who are winning are in the trades and come from families who made at least some good choices and can offer finance from the Bank of Mum & Dad, so there’s some hope for ‘em.

I don’t drink alcohol, and I don’t smoke.

____

Edited to add:

> Either way, drink plenty of water before bed. It will help with the hangover in the morning.

It sort of doesn’t though. Most of the effects of alcohol consumption that result in a hangover are caused by an accumulation of acetaldehyde[5] in the blood, the clearance of which is rate limited by an aldehyde dehydrogenase enzyme[6]. That is to say, the clearance of acetaldehyde isn’t rate limited by water …

And the dehydration hypothesis can be debunked empirically by anyone who drinks, for example, beer, which, around here, tends to contain less than 7% alcohol by volume, so beer drinkers are getting a lot of water already and yet they get hungover too. So it can’t be the water.

You can’t say I’m not thorough, and if you check my comment history you’ll find a multi-year period where most of my comments contained extensive references, because that used to be the done thing around here.

_____

Try not to characterise everyone who disagrees with you as wrong, uneducated, out of touch, or whatever. Some of us have been watching and living this slow moving train wreck and we reckon our country deserves better. We’re not uneducated, we are politically engaged, we don’t place all the blame on brown people or whatever. We voted No to the Voice[3] because we see ourselves and each other as literally one nation. We’re not racists, we’re not homophobic or whatever, but the + can go fuck themselves.[3]

Anyways, I appreciate your thoughtful response, and appreciate the conversation (Y)

1. StacheD - https://youtube.com/@stachedtraining?si=Lp6dDc5wstRvltFU

2. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-16/bondi-beach-terrorist...

3. Referendum on the Indigenous Voice to Parliament - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_Voice_to_Parliament

4. Aussie comedian Jim Jeffries on ‘+’ https://youtube.com/shorts/zoPxLAE6jEM?si=veUBBHTBiv9aVysJ

5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acetaldehyde

6. aldehyde dehydrogenase ADLH2 - ALDH2 plays a crucial role in maintaining low blood levels of acetaldehyde during alcohol oxidation.[7] In this pathway (ethanol to acetaldehyde to acetate), the intermediate structures can be toxic, and health problems arise when those intermediates cannot be cleared.[3] When high levels of acetaldehyde occur in the blood, facial flushing, lightheadedness, palpitations, nausea, and general "hangover" symptoms occur. It also is thought to be the cause of a medical condition known as the alcohol flush reaction, also known as "Asian flush" or "Oriental flushing syndrome". - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aldehyde_dehydrogenase

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#308
post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We should embrace any way to get a clean running car on the road. Only if it's also feasible to fuel that car in a clean way. And looking at where the hydrogen would come from is not "made up" or "paranoia".

It is entirely feasible. And it is made up to claim that "Well, this second it looks like there's no infra for green h2, so it can never happen! So there!" If that was the case, we'd still have electric cars with 50km range, and 1000lbs of batteries.

I haven't seen any cost models where green hydrogen is feasible without a lot of super cheap excess electricity. And those situations also boost batteries. Do you have one you can show me? It's not just lack of infrastructure, even if you solved the problem of building everything out green hydrogen is still not worth it under conditions close to the present day.

And I didn't say it could never under any circumstances be feasible.

> If that was the case, we'd still have electric cars with 50km range, and 1000lbs of batteries.

I don't follow your logic here. Nobody went out and built tons of lithium ion batteries for cars until they were actually feasible. We're living in the world where companies wait, and it worked out for electric cars.

Re: Toyota’s hydrogen-powered Mirai has experienced rapid depreciation

#309
post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are available for purchase. Toyota is in the game of selling cars. Toyota has been the best selling automaker for the last six years straight. Toyota had record sales last year: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota... It's possible that Toyota understands the car business better than you do.

All of the bz* models you listed are Chinese models, and while the Woodland and C-HR are listed on their US website, they aren't really available for purchase (though I did find one C-HR if I'm willing to drive 500 miles to buy it). Obviously the world auto market is greater than the US, but the US is the leading market for Toyota in terms of total units sold, so it's odd to me that if I drive to the Toyota dealershi…

China is the biggest EV market, Europe is the second biggest, and North America is third.

For EVs the US will remain lower priority than China and Europe for a while yet. Toyota understands how to sell cars.

It's funny how this thread has gone from "Toyota can't wrap its head around not making engines" to "Toyota is not prioritizing small EV markets first".

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