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America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

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Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#301

Post by eru »

Aurornis wrote: post #54
ecshafer wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CPF sounds pretty clever. It covers a major individual cost and need (retirement, medical, housing) instead of just throwing it into a tax. It makes the government money. This sounds like a win win kind of policy.

> instead of just throwing it into a tax. It makes the government money It is a tax, but with extra steps. The reason it makes the government money is because they’re collecting the extra interest that citizens would have earned if they were free to invest it on their own.

Alas, actually not: you can actually invest your CPF by yourself, and most people lose money compared to leaving it with the Gahmen.

Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#302

Post by accurrent »

everforward wrote: post #204
skrtskrt wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The magnitude of the investment also probably makes it impractical for anyone but the very wealthy to retire before that starts paying out... But they can pull out for housing right? That's an enormous portion of most people's expenses. If I didn't have to worry about housing, I could be living large on less than half of my salary, I would certainly semi-retire at least.

Sort of. So far as I can tell, you can withdraw to buy housing but I don’t think you can pay rent out of it. The loans are also 75% max loan-to-value so I think until you can get 25% of the purchase price in your account you have to pay CPF and rent (or live with family). Also, not an economist, but I suspect the forced savings has a wildly inflationary effect on housing prices. You can’t do much else with the money…

Very few locals pay rent here. Most people buy houses. Its kindof forced thanks to the system, but its designed in a way that unless you are a decimillionaire housing is expensive, but attainable. This is done by splitting the housing market into private and public housing. Is this perfect? No.

And yes it does drive inflation of house prices.

Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#303

Post by hn_acc1 »

kelvinjps10 wrote: post #239
raw_anon_1111 wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does that answer the question about what happens when the ACA is gutted and you can’t get insurance at any price with a pre-existing condition? That happened to me right before the ACA went into affect. I was engaged to my now wife and we moved our marriage up early so I could get on her insurance.

https://mrmoneymustache.com/2020/11/09/direct-primary-care/ https://mrmoneymustache.com/2017/11/05/when-your-shitty-heal... Regarding ACA >My family’s monthly health insurance premium, which had already more than doubled in the last few years to $674 per month, was going up a further 44% for the coming year. For no good reason, other than perhaps the the current government’s attempts to kill off the Affordable Care A…

How do you "work part time" when you need medical care to GET WELL ENOUGH to be able to work again? I.e. if you are in a serious car accident with a broken leg and broken arm, ain't no one hiring you just to let you sit around and get free health care.

Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#304

Post by eru »

InkCanon wrote: post #107
dmoy wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$8000 is considerably above median income, no?

Yes. Bluntly put, the government maximizes residence of high net worth individuals, and a 37% forced purchase of low interest bonds would be outrageous to them.

Also Singapore is reasonably good about applying paternalism mostly to the poor.

(I say, mostly, because they still don't allow rich people to take arbitrary drugs. Unless you count getting a doctor to give you a prescription.)

Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#305

Post by Grimburger »

mikestorrent wrote: post #281
Grimburger wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is being entirely disingenuous and is completely different to what goes on in Dubai. I have lived there and can rattle off plenty of criticisms about the country but complaining about migrant workers who clamour to work in SG is not one of them. The vast majority of Singapore migrant workforce are Malaysian citizens who live over the border in JB, you can rent a 2 bed apartment there for $300 a month and eat out…

> while commuting each day to a developed country Must be a fully automated border or something? That kind of commute would be unthinkable between e.g. Canada and the USA for most folks

Woodlands is the busiest immigration checkpoint on the planet and it's only 1 of 2 crossings. It's fairly seamless for regulars apart from Friday afternoons when it gets clogged up by escaping Singaporeans keen for the weekend and the quality/value offered by their poorer neighbour.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodlands_Checkpoint

Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#306

Post by eru »

spyckie2 wrote: post #43
drivebyhooting wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except for the part where citizens get low returns and are forced to work their whole lives accruing minimal benefit. How is being a serf win win?

You mean the US, right? Especially with the part 2? I know this may sound like a shock because you are privileged but 7% yoy return on capital is NOT the norm for the rest of the world. Just look at any other index not called the S&P or the Dow. Look up US exceptionalism. The US policy for retirement savings shackles the younger generation with a ticking time bomb. Forcing your own citizens to save money for themselv…

> I know this may sound like a shock because you are privileged but 7% yoy return on capital is NOT the norm for the rest of the world. Just look at any other index not called the S&P or the Dow. Look up US exceptionalism.

I have sympathy for your general position, but this particular one is a bit silly: I live outside the US (in Singapore, in fact), and I can invest in US equity just fine.

Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#307

Post by eru »

gruez wrote: post #122
zozbot234 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the lease gets renewed at market value then there's no point in speculating about what that land might be worth in the farther future. It's a key difference from a system where all of the future value must be captured at once by a single owner.

Doesn't that just turn into a property tax of 1% per year, without a massive tax bill every 99 years? 99 years is long enough that there's going to be at least 2 owners, which means all sorts of strategizing required on how to plan for the renewal of the lease.

Yes, 30 year leases or so would be probably be better. Our Gahmen in Singapore already switched to these shorter leases for commercial property.

Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#308

Post by eru »

nosianu wrote: post #41
drivebyhooting wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except for the part where citizens get low returns and are forced to work their whole lives accruing minimal benefit. How is being a serf win win?

Unless we scale back our lives significantly, and are fine with a lot less stuff and vacations and devices and modernized living (houses and transit today are vastly more complex systems than a few decades ago), there simply is no way to let a large number of people live like rich people. I grew up in East Germany, and while it was a total failure, they got at least one idea correct in the workers paradise: We need t…

Coincidentally, I was born in East Germany and now live in Singapore.

Even in unified Germany you can have fun. I think actually a lot more. You can run your own independent cooperatives etc.

Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#309

Post by eru »

janpeuker wrote: post #269
InkCanon wrote: post #12

Singapore's economic policies are complicated and often misdirecting. I'll break down the misconceptions. The primary purpose of CPF is not a pension scheme. It is structured as a massive forced bond purchase scheme by citizens. Financially what happens is the 37% of citizen income buys a long term bond (till retirement age, on average decades) at rock bottom interest rates (it's pegged to the overnight rate or a min…

I think it's also relevant that CPF is not only a pension schema but most importantly also a home ownership scheme via HDB OA https://www.cpf.gov.sg/member/home-ownership/using-your-cpf-...

You also get health insurance.

Re: America vs. Singapore: You can't save your way out of economic shocks

#310

Post by hn_acc1 »

paulddraper wrote: post #119
atomicnumber3 wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah yes, the 4chan retirement plan. Die of a preventable cause at age 42 while waiting for your captcha.

If you accept that cancer is a death sentence, it’s not absurd to “self fund” your insurance with a nest egg. You can shop around quite a bit for non urgent care, and get good cash discount.

What are you smoking? My parents are in their 80s, both 15+ and 20+ years cancer free. At least in my mom's case (colon), not having surgery + chemo probably WOULD have been a death sentence. In Canada, their total out-of-pocket costs (other than transportation to/from the hospital) was like $15 for some painkillers.
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