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Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation

#301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who thought Google+ doomed facebook, because of Gmail accounts and everyone with Google as their homepage already, I learned not to overestimate Google’s abilities.

How in the world would you have thought that? Genuinely curious. It was obviously DOA and waaaayyy outside G'scompetence.

1. Google had recently exploited their home page to push chrome browser successfully altering the browser market. They pushed anyone visiting Google to chrome with a popup on the home page. The same opportunity was there for G+, but with updates from friends.

2. Everyone already had a Google account and many millennials were using Google Talk at the time. It appeared Google could undermine the network effects.

3. The UI of G+ appeared better

4. Facebook had released the newsfeed otherwise known as ‘stalker mode’ at the time and people recoiled at the idea of broadcasting their every action to every acquaintance. The circles idea was a way of providing both privacy and the ability to broadcast widely when needed.

5. Google had tons of money and devoted their world class highly paid genius employees to building a social network.

You can see parallels to each of these in AI now. Their pre existing index of all the world’s information, their existing search engine that you can easily pop an LLM in, the huge lead in cash, etc. They are in a great position but don’t underestimate their ability to waste it.

Re: Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation

#302

How is Anthropic, OpenAI and xAi going to compete against the likes of Google that can spend $200 billion a year? It’s an impossible war and all these investors are throwing their money into a bottomless insatiable pit of money. Until the funding stops for one reason or another and then everyone loses all their money at once like a star that collapses into a black hole singularity in a femtosecond.

They're frenemies. The likes of Google also host Anthropic and OpenAI.

Re: Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation

#303

How is Anthropic, OpenAI and xAi going to compete against the likes of Google that can spend $200 billion a year? It’s an impossible war and all these investors are throwing their money into a bottomless insatiable pit of money. Until the funding stops for one reason or another and then everyone loses all their money at once like a star that collapses into a black hole singularity in a femtosecond.

Have you ever used anything that is on google cloud console? Or tried not to get randomly ratelimited with a single request to a vertex llm model? They are shooting themselves in the foot for solid 20 years, any of these players can compete with google in this frontier

I had to install the separate gcloud and gsutil utilities and use one to synthesize a login session for the other this week.

Took fully 10 minutes to install from homebrew.

I do not believe in this company.

Re: Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation

#304
post #270
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theoretically Apple can spend just as much. What are the outcomes though? All those giants have their own business that are established and profitable. It’s the new kids in the block that will make the difference. You know those lists on twitter about how many companies US has in top 10 and are presented as a win? Those are actually lists of capital concentrations blocking innovation. It looks like US is winning but…

> Theoretically Apple can spend just as much. What are the outcomes though? All those giants have their own business that are established and profitable. Ah! Well, if we put aside "The Innovator's Dilemma" and pick up Reis and Trout's "marketing Warfare," we get the answer. Apple does have an existing business, but investing in AI does not cannibalize it. They can throw money at it, try to find a way to make it work…

> On-device AI flanks the big giants that areservcie-centric.

Wouldn't on-device AI also support Google's position? If search is to be protected, on-device AI (small models) would be capable of basic usage, but inept at answering knowledge questions specifically, necessitating a search service be preserved. They have already launched local models in Chrome and Android. Meanwhile none of the big AI competition can profit off of local models, so this is a unique opportunity for big-G.

That said, I disagree with the premise you propose. It's 2026, and about 40% of their revenue over the last few years comes from non-search products (depending on quarter). Oh and Apple doesn't seem to be investing enough in AI products, because it's just making them look bad, not providing a "flanking attack".

Google is pulling in tons of AI revenue - from subscriptions, personal and enterprise, and Google Cloud (APIs etc). Cloud is seeing a ton of growth lately, and I'm sure that's largely from AI services that are uniquely available there. As long as they can serve models with a better cost structure (thanks TPUs) they can squeeze out better margins than their competitions.

Re: Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation

#305
post #270
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theoretically Apple can spend just as much. What are the outcomes though? All those giants have their own business that are established and profitable. It’s the new kids in the block that will make the difference. You know those lists on twitter about how many companies US has in top 10 and are presented as a win? Those are actually lists of capital concentrations blocking innovation. It looks like US is winning but…

> Theoretically Apple can spend just as much. What are the outcomes though? All those giants have their own business that are established and profitable. Ah! Well, if we put aside "The Innovator's Dilemma" and pick up Reis and Trout's "marketing Warfare," we get the answer. Apple does have an existing business, but investing in AI does not cannibalize it. They can throw money at it, try to find a way to make it work…

+1 for mentioning Christensen & Trout and Reis.

Re: Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation

#306

How is Anthropic, OpenAI and xAi going to compete against the likes of Google that can spend $200 billion a year? It’s an impossible war and all these investors are throwing their money into a bottomless insatiable pit of money. Until the funding stops for one reason or another and then everyone loses all their money at once like a star that collapses into a black hole singularity in a femtosecond.

Until a version of Gemini is released that can fix one (1) bug in my codebase, I'm not worried for any of those companies.

Re: Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation

#307
post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> more food Yeah, so I don't want to be a Debbie Downer, but as a European who visited the US, your food is definitely not something I would use as an example of your QoL.

You went to the wrong parts and ate the wrong things.

I used to live in Paris for a spell and the food here in San Francisco is better. California has some of the freshest and best local produce in the world. If you eat at real restaurants (not McD), and intentionally buy fresh food (which is available at normal grocery stores too) then you're getting great quality food. I think there is much better access to a variety of foods, of suitably high quality, and the variety of cuisines at restaurants is laughably incomparable. The prices are definitely higher, but the median income in SF is significantly higher, so I think it may still be a smaller % of salary for most people.

For some reason people associate fast food and junk as "American" and then extrapolate that as what typical American diet is. Maybe there are parts of the US that are much poorer and with worse access to food distribution, but I'd assume that rural and impoverished Europe is the same.

Re: Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation

#308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So is Gemini tbh. It's the only agent I've used that gets itself stuck in ridiculous loops repeating "ok. I'm done. I'm ready to commit the changes. There are no bugs. I'm done." Google somehow manages to fumble the easiest layups. I think Anthropic et al have a real chance here.

Interesting that you consider the most cutting edge technology in the category to be "the easiest layups".

I think they've been gaming benchmarks.

I use Claude every day. I cannot get Gemini to do anything useful, at all. Every time I've tried to use it, it has just failed to do what was required.

Re: Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation

#309
post #110

Goldman Sachs recently stoked fear about software stocks due to claimed AI competition. What if their strategy is this: slowly drive down software stocks, keep talking about AI, buy the downward market. Then cash in on the IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic. Then let OpenAI and Anthropic implode. Goldman Sachs had no problems underwriting webvan at the end of 1999, which then imploded in 2000. Anyway, I just valued my dog…

what goes up, must come down

spinning wheel, round and round

https://youtu.be/zhnEjxsjjuA

Re: Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation

#310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it’s not. This is a dangerous perspective, usually held by engineers who think that accounting doesn’t matter and don’t understand it. You MUST accrue the lifetime value of the assets against the capital expense (R&D in this case) to determine the answer to this question. The company (until this announcement) had raised $17B and has a $14B revenue rate with 60% operating margin. It is only negative on margin if y…

What is the lifetime value of an individual pretraining run, and what is the cost to do it? Whether it is a net positive seems to still be an open question.

Actually there is a chart of answers to this question, because the frontier providers have been delivering new models for some time. The answer is that so far they have been net positive.
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