US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says
301–310 of 339 posts
Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says
#302Earlier quoted context omitted.
> other countries have refused to go along Trump failed to convince other countries to continue going along because he's a simplistic zero-sum bully who barks orders, expects others to fall in line, and then throws a tantrum when they don't - rather than a tactful leader capable of maintaining the trust of a voluntary positive-sum coalition. That he's also been overtly attacking allies at the same time doesn't help c…
> Trump failed to convince other countries to continue going along because he's a simplistic zero-sum bully who barks orders, expects others to fall in line, and then throws a tantrum when they don't All of these things were true in 2016 as well yet other countries went along then.
I think there were more adults in the room, more legal checks, plus a lack of experience holding Turmp back. Foreign leaders also held their nose thinking he was an aberration that would pass.
Whereas in 2025 his sponsors had their plans set and ready to go out of the gate, the Supreme Council had fully burnt a good chunk of our Constitution, and the fact that the American people choose this idiot a second time reflected upon the whole country.
Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says
#303Earlier quoted context omitted.
No. The point is to make foreign goods more expensive in order to bring production back to the US. People who don't realize this point out who is actually paying and claim its a problem. Will this bring manufacturing back? It seems to be working to some extent, but its a risk to manufacturers because the whole thing could get reversed after an election.
There are a few problems with how Trump is going about this: 1. The tariffs are too broad, they don't target a single or a few industries. 2. Trump has gone back and forth many times on them, using them as negotiating leverage, not as long term incentives. 3. They are on very shaky legal grounds and will likely end up getting reversed by either the Supreme Court or the next president. If you want to use tariffs to en…
I agree that's actually the problem. The problem with discourse in the US is that it comes in soundbites, division and confusion. This predates, arguably ENABLED Trump.
There could have been an argument for tariffs, done rationally and with a very specific program to rebalance trade. I'm not saying it's necessarily correct, but it could have entered as an option for voters to consider. But that's an alternative universe to people at this point, and we end up with an unpredictable waffling that scares businesses and doesn't appear to have obvious aims at this point beyond petty attacks.
Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says
#304Earlier quoted context omitted.
For today, sure. People act like 365 days is long enough to change consumer spending habits, and onshore production facilities that took years to offshore. If tariffs are held strong, there will be two possible outcomes: 1) Domestic production will be increased (via American businesses as well as onshoring foreign businesses), providing jobs and ultimately lower-cost products 2) International tariffs will be decrease…
> ultimately lower-cost products When has reduced competition ever resulted in lower-cost products? Even for goods we already mass produce, companies respond to tariffs of their competitor's goods by hiking their own prices up.
Reduced competition is a near-term affect. Demand will remain constant (or increase) for goods, so businesses will open and compete over the long-term. In the future it will be cheaper to purchase domestically produced goods vs. import them from half a world away...
Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says
#305FT is a globalist mouthpiece. I don’t support tariff but it being used as a negotiating technique is the only choice here to reduce trade deficit. US can’t keep up the trade deficit it currently has. It requires endless fiscal deficit and sell paper money to others that sends their cheap stuff to US. With growing deficit, the interest payment now is soon to be higher than defence budget. Something has to give.
How can you in good faith discuss the deficit and us spending when the current administration has ballooned it more than any president in history. While gutting and burning to the ground American industries and manufacturing....and using reckless unprecedented spending for obvious bribes and corruption for his own families benefit...
Every administration has been ballooning it more than its predecessor. This has been the case since last decade. Nothing stops this train.
The villain here is not the executive branch but Congress which approves the fiscal budget and spending limits, debt ceiling. President has no authority to increase debt ceiling.
Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says
#306Earlier quoted context omitted.
I can’t help wondering if the biggest problem in the US right now is that a majority of people having a “fundamental misunderstanding” about many, many very important things. Maybe it’s because of propaganda, mis information, social media, education or because they’re too busy and tired trying to make ends meet so they don’t have time to research issues for themselves. It feels like it will be very difficult to cours…
Reminds me of the staggering number of people who don't get marginal tax rates, even thinking they should pass up certain raises so they don't get pushed into a higher tax bracket and pay a higher rate on their whole salary.
Or the staggering number (likely a very large overlap with your group) who appear to see their tax refund as "free money back from the government" instead of what it really is: "you are simply getting back money you loaned to the government interest free for up to a year".
Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says
#307Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s not entirely clear to me why tariffs would help your local logistics businesses? Doesn’t the same amount of stuff get moved around , just changes origin? I believe you I just would like to understand
Because it made it possible for domestic production to increase.
Of what? Other stuff? Or packing materials? Or
Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says
#308Earlier quoted context omitted.
Every tax ever implemented by government has been initially sold as a tax on the rich. The people voting for it assume they will never be taxed because they aren't currently rich. But, there is never enough of other peoples money to spend. So, taxes expand and/or increase to include more people. The original income tax was sold as 1% on mid income and 2% on high income. At the time more than half the country was not…
More than half the country still doesn't pay any (income) tax.
That is a bit of a lie. Getting a refund does not mean you didn't pay. Even getting more back than you actually paid does not mean you didn't pay. Money is taken from every paycheck. When you file your taxes the IRS decides what you get back.
Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says
#309Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If tariffs are bad, why does every country tariff US-made products so heavily? That's an easy question. The answer is "they don't." USMCA/NAFTA guaranteed free trade with Mexico and Canada. Pre-2025, there was no blanket tariff on US goods in Europe. They tariffed some agricultural goods at 11%. Industrial goods were in single digits. The tariff numbers that Trump purports (e.g. blanket 30% tariffs on Switzerland)…
> justify massive so-called "reciprocal" tariffs I just want to point out that this "reciprocal" nonsense was in no way calculated or strategic. The chart/table they showed was literally LLM-generated and no one could explain how they got those numbers. It's a complete circus and we're sitting here refuting bullshit everyday.
> no one could explain how they got those numbers.
Not quite. The big board percentages were effectively us (imports - exports) / imports * 0.5 ~ fuzzy adjustment based on feels. Your point remains theyre amateurish and bely a lack of any grounding to actual foreign import duties. But that is a direct way of representing a mercantilist world view where net imports bad, exports strong.
https://www.investopedia.com/trade-experts-question-trump-te...
Re: US businesses and consumers pay 90% of tariff costs, New York Fed says
#310Earlier quoted context omitted.
> This applies to Dems as well, while we're at it. I disagree with this both-sideism. Democrats are much more in following with norms, where MAGA-era FKA-republicans will through anything aside for their benefit (e.g. Merrick Garland).
Assuming the Dems can get power again we need them to aggressively pursue leftist economic populism. As you can see from the present moment, once principles become inconvenient, they abandon them. So, yes, “both sides”. Being clear-eyed about this can save our democracy.
Wild speculation:
My hot take is that we’re in the midst of a political realignment. The Democratic Party will be the new center-right “conservative” party, and progressives will be their primary opponents. Assuming MAGA has a dumpster fire collapse when the AI bubble pops and we have the worst market contraction and affordability crisis in decades.