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Two kinds of AI users are emerging

martinalderson.com

301–310 of 358 posts

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#301
post #12

The "upside" description: On the other you have a non-technical executive who's got his head round Claude Code and can run e.g. Python locally. I helped one recently almost one-shot converting a 30 sheet mind numbingly complicated Excel financial model to Python with Claude Code. Once the model is in Python, you effectively have a data science team in your pocket with Claude Code. You can easily run Monte Carlo simul…

we're going from "bad excel sheet caused recession" to "bad vibe-coded financial thing caused recession"

I heard already a story like that. My home country’s government made already some decisions based on some vibe code verified by nobody. It was made by one of my friends. Nobody cares.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The second group is one that thinks talking to a chatbot will replace senior developer Once they realize that it doesn't replace senior but can easily replace junior, junior dev will have a bigger problem and the industry at large will have a huge problem in 8 years because the concept of "senior" would have vanished.

Why would the concept of senior disappear in 8 years? I am a senior, and work with seniors that have been seniors for 20 years. In 8 years we will still be seniors.

My perspective is that each year a good chunk of senior dev leave the pure dev to go to management roles or something else and while they do that, they are replaced by junior morphing into senior.

I consider 8 years to be the real experience to be considered a senior dev.

If from now on, the amount of junior is drastically reduced, this will lead to a lack of senior in 8 years because the senior leaving should be the same proportion.

In a situation where they replace juniors with agents, yes, we'll still be senior, but just like people capable of setting a VHS recorder, our number will dwindle.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#303
post #2

Terrifying that people are creating financial models with AI when they don’t have the skills to verify the model does what they expect

Someone recently had AI create a trading bot and it returns 131% on every transaction over a 30 day period - do you really think they care about code quality or ability to verify the math?

ANd I have a bridge to sell you in London

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#304
I've made a similar observation. I'm clearly in camp #2: No agents, and use ChatGPT or Gemini to ask specific questions, and feed it only the context I want it to have.

I have a parallel observation: Many people use code editors that have weak introspection and refactoring ability compared to IDEs like JetBrains'. This includes VSCode, Zed, Emacs etc. I have a suspicion there is a big overlap between this and Group 1. It is wild to me that people are generating AI code while skipping in-IDE error checking, deterministic autocomplete, and refactoring.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would the concept of senior disappear in 8 years? I am a senior, and work with seniors that have been seniors for 20 years. In 8 years we will still be seniors.

My perspective is that each year a good chunk of senior dev leave the pure dev to go to management roles or something else and while they do that, they are replaced by junior morphing into senior. I consider 8 years to be the real experience to be considered a senior dev. If from now on, the amount of junior is drastically reduced, this will lead to a lack of senior in 8 years because the senior leaving should be the…

I understand. At my work nobody senior becomes a manager so I never had that perspective. Thanks for clarifying your thoughts for me.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#306
post #267

Software engineers don't understand how user hostile all these AI gizmos are. Terminals are scary. AI running local code is scary. Random Github software is scary. And in my experience, normies are far more security paranoid than developers when it comes to AI.

Normies have a much more realistic take on AI than technical people or semi-technical "power users": * They LOVE image-generating AI and AI that messes with their own photos/videos. * They will ask ChatGPT, Gemini, etc and just believe the result. * They will ask Copilot to help them make a formula in Excel and be happy to be done. The common theme here is they don't care . To them, AI is just a neat thing. It's not…

Its kind of funny how it’s the exact same discussion as we used to have about privacy in the advent of social media. "I’m not worried, I got nothing to hide!" The convenience benefits of Facebook (in the beginning, likely less nowadays) massively outweighed the privacy concerns of the layman or woman.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The second group is one that thinks talking to a chatbot will replace senior developer And the first group thinks that these tools will enable them to replace a whole team of developers.

A company with 5 developers could potentially downsize to 3 developers using AI, while improving overall velocity. Would you agree?

No.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#308
I really like that this article explained the title thesis in the first 4 paragraphs. At that point you can decide if you agree or if your want to read on. No unnecessary fluff baiting the reader to read the whole thing in order to find out what are the two kinds of users. More writing like this.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I use it to get some basic info about topic I know little of (as google search is getting worse by the day..). That then I check. Honestly the absolute revolution for me would be if someone managed to make LLM tell "sorry I don't know enough about the topic", one time I made a typo in a project name I wanted some info on and it outright invented commands and usages (that also were different than the project I w…

> Honestly the absolute revolution for me would be if someone managed to make LLM tell "sorry I don't know enough about the topic" https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.04664 According to that OpenAI paper, models hallucinate in part because they are optimized on benchmarks that involve guessing. If you make a model that refuses to answer when unsure, you will not get SOTA performance on existing benchmarks and everyone will di…

That is such a cop-out, if there was a really good benchmark for getting rid of hallucinations then it would be included in every eval comparison graph.

The real reason is that every bench I've seen has Anthropic with lower hallucinations.

Re: Two kinds of AI users are emerging

#310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Enterprise IT dinosaur here, seconding this perspective and the author’s. When I needed to bash out a quick Hashicorp Packer buildfile without prior experience beyond a bit of Vault and Terraform, local AI was a godsend at getting me 80% of the way there in seconds. I could read it, edit it, test it, and move much faster than Packer’s own thin “getting started” guide offered. The net result was zero prior knowledge t…

>LLMs really are a game changer for my personal sales pitch of being a single dinosaur army for IT in small to medium-sized enterprises. This is essentially what I'm doing too but I expect in a different country. I'm finding it incredibly difficult to successfully speak to people. How are you making headway? I'm very curious how you're leveraging AI messaging to clients/prospective clients that doesn't just come acro…

Oh, I should be more clear: I only use local models to help me accelerate non-production work. I never use it for communications, because A) I want to improve my skills there, and B) I don't want my first (or any) outreach to another human to be a bot.

Mostly it's been an excellent way to translate vocabulary between products or technologies for me. When I'm working on something new (e.g., Hashicorp Packer) and lack the specific vocabulary, I may query Qwen or Ministral with what I want to do ("Build a Windows 11 image that executes scripts after startup but before sysprep"), then use its output as a starting point for what I actually want to accomplish. I've also tinkered with it at home for writing API integrations or parsing JSON with RegEx for Home Assistant uses, and found it very useful in low-risk environments.

Thus far, they don't consistently spit out functional code. I still have to do a back-and-forth to troubleshoot the output and make it secure and functional within my environments, and that's fine - it's how I learn, after all. When it comes to, say, SQL (which I understand conceptually, but not necessarily specifically), it's a slightly bigger crutch until I can start running on my own two feet.

Still cheaper than a proper consultant or SME, though, and for most enterprise workloads that's good (and cheap) enough once I've sanity checked it with a colleague or in a local dev/sandbox environment.

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