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The UK is shaping a future of precrime and dissent management (2025)

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Re: The UK is shaping a future of precrime and dissent management (2025)

#301

Post by skippyboxedhero »

zingar wrote: post #283
skippyboxedhero wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So far, I have never seen any article or even comment online explain explicitly why this is the case. Almost everyone can see quite visibly that crime is not decreasing but then you have people with a clear political and financial motive saying: the stats, you are just a loon or (even worse) someone who might not be from London. If you read the best source on this, hospital admissions, you will see that ~95% of the d…

I don’t understand why ONS should be expected to do anything but gather numbers. If good policing is the cause or reduction in alcohol consumption is the cause who cares? Also, on looking for incentives the very obvious incentive to try discredit these orgs is so that politicians outside London can blame crime on immigration in the city that has the most immigrants. This is straight out of the playbook of groups who…

It isn't the ONS. I believe it is a research unit of a university who collects this data, and they produce press releases on this dataset.

The reason why the difference is important is because it implies extremely different strategies to fixing it...obviously.

"politicians outside London"...ah, ofc, the Londoner conspiracy theory. It is wrong to blame immigrants for crime but correct to blame people outside London? The reason why people think there is a link between crime and immigration is because there is a link between crime and immigration. I am not sure what else can be said. You are implying that public opinion should be manipulated to hide this fact (even though this is already something the government does) whilst complaining about other people manipulating public opinion. Classic.

Re: The UK is shaping a future of precrime and dissent management (2025)

#302

Post by myrmidon »

9JollyOtter wrote: post #299
myrmidon wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same is true for China, though; all the wealth is at the urbanized coast, with a somewhat poor and underdeveloped hinterland.

It is going to exist pretty much anywhere. Wealth is going to be concentrated in some areas and not others. So comparing the Median income of the entire country is not representative of the whole. e.g. Jobs in London (even remote ones) will pay twice as much as jobs in the North West of England.

I do agree that boiling it down to a single comparison is always gonna be reductive, but the median is IMO still the best you can do here, because it ignores outliers completely (on both sides).

From what I can tell the prosperity gap is also large enough that small errors don't really matter; I already looked at urban china vs average UK (systematically favoring China) and the numbers are still not close (something like $30k vs >$40k even after PP adjustment).

Re: The UK is shaping a future of precrime and dissent management (2025)

#303

Post by 9JollyOtter »

solumunus wrote: post #295
9JollyOtter wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don’t understand how it could have caused any improvement Which is exactly why any answer I give you would be unsatisfactory.

OK dude. You’re bothering to respond so you could just properly respond. It’s entirely possible that I have gaps in my knowledge and can hear a new argument and find it reasonable, since I’ve spent almost no time debating Brexit. Obviously I’m now just going to assume you don’t have a decent argument, which you will point at and say “see!”. It’s an easy cop out for you. What’s the point in expressing opinions if you’…

> What’s the point in expressing opinions if you’re going to refuse to put any weight behind them whatsoever?

I did a long detailed response in this thread where I spent a lot of time detailing why I believed somebody's assessment of about about Dominic Cummings was incorrect (I actually listened to what he had to say). So I've already have put weight behind my opinions.

Your reply on this topic is essentially leading to a re-litigation of Brexit which happened a decade ago now, which isn't anything to do with Dominic Cumming's observations on how Whitehall worked while he was present during COVID.

Brexit isn't something I wanted to get into, but both you and the other person I was replying to seemed to be focused on Brexit when it isn't the topic of discussion. I made that abundantly clear in my long reply to them.

TBH. You can do a web search or ask an AI the various exit strategies that were present at the time. Many scenarios were proposed before and after the vote. This was discussed to death at the time. Loads has been written about it. Why do I have to summarise something that is easily found via a search engine for you?

Re: The UK is shaping a future of precrime and dissent management (2025)

#304

Post by 9JollyOtter »

myrmidon wrote: post #302
9JollyOtter wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is going to exist pretty much anywhere. Wealth is going to be concentrated in some areas and not others. So comparing the Median income of the entire country is not representative of the whole. e.g. Jobs in London (even remote ones) will pay twice as much as jobs in the North West of England.

I do agree that boiling it down to a single comparison is always gonna be reductive, but the median is IMO still the best you can do here, because it ignores outliers completely (on both sides). From what I can tell the prosperity gap is also large enough that small errors don't really matter; I already looked at urban china vs average UK (systematically favoring China) and the numbers are still not close (something…

> but the median is IMO still the best you can do here, because it ignores outliers completely (on both sides).

Using the Median as far as I am concerned is meaningless as the South/South-East skews everything. It is quite obvious as you drive across the country. You can see it with your own eyes.

I don't really care that much about the comparison with China.

Re: The UK is shaping a future of precrime and dissent management (2025)

#305

Post by 9JollyOtter »

room271 wrote: post #292
9JollyOtter wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As a Brit, I find it very hard to believe that the majority of comments in this thread are not either written out of ignorance or are bots. I am a Brit and I object to a lot of the expansion of powers that have happened in Britain during successive governments since the "War on Terror" started which was pretty might right after 9/11. I would like to see much of this legislation repealed. However that is unlikely to…

I completely agree with criticism of expansion of government powers in some contexts but my original point was about gaining perspective and avoiding sensationalism, which I argue the article and many comments here fall into. > Why does it matter if they are a anarchist organisation or not? 'Freedom' and government authority coexist to some extent (tax is an imposition for example, but funds a military which should e…

> I completely agree with criticism of expansion of government powers in some contexts but my original point was about gaining perspective and avoiding sensationalism, which I argue the article and many comments here fall into.

Yet you were engaging in your own brand of it by repeating US news output, which quite honestly is always sensationalist.

Look I didn't like seeing that footage where the woman got shot.But it isn't relevant to what happening in the UK.

> 'Freedom' and government authority coexist to some extent (tax is an imposition for example, but funds a military which should ensure ongoing freedom, etc.). The article needs to be read on its own merits of course but the organisation who provide it adhere to a different value judgement about where the balance of authority and anarchy should lie in society than most would agree with. That's a helpful data point I think, even if only a small part of the story.

I understand this. I've read Anarchist literature. I only care whether the analysis has any benefit. Not who produces it.

> You'll be relieved to see that the compulsory element of Digital ID (for work) has been removed at least (reported widely in press outlets yesterday evening).

Good. It needs to be totally abolished though.

Re: The UK is shaping a future of precrime and dissent management (2025)

#306

Post by zingar »

skippyboxedhero wrote: post #301
zingar wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand why ONS should be expected to do anything but gather numbers. If good policing is the cause or reduction in alcohol consumption is the cause who cares? Also, on looking for incentives the very obvious incentive to try discredit these orgs is so that politicians outside London can blame crime on immigration in the city that has the most immigrants. This is straight out of the playbook of groups who…

It isn't the ONS. I believe it is a research unit of a university who collects this data, and they produce press releases on this dataset. The reason why the difference is important is because it implies extremely different strategies to fixing it...obviously. "politicians outside London"...ah, ofc, the Londoner conspiracy theory. It is wrong to blame immigrants for crime but correct to blame people outside London? T…

Just to clarify: you're saying the alcohol vs crime stats are from a research unit of a university? If so:

- I admit that I don't know much about ONS but its name suggests that they are not about research/speculation/anecdata into how we got where we are or how to fix it, they are just there to collect data - I would count the reduction in alcohol consumption as an extremely positive step for fixing problems; societal problems like crime need holistic solutions. What the correct solution is seems orthogonal to my point which is that stats orgs work hard to produce rigorous data and it is dangerous to undermine them in favour of groups (bloggers?) who have no such standards applied to their work

> It is wrong to blame immigrants for crime but correct to blame people outside London

I'm not sure what point you're making, I'm not blaming crime on people outside London. I imagine that the small amount of crime in London is committed by people in and around London. I expect the tiny minority of immigrants to be responsible for a tiny minority of those crimes.

> there is a link between crime and immigration

I'd be interested to read stats from a reputable source that applies the sort of rigour that the non-political civil servants who typically gather stats.

> You are implying that public opinion should be manipulated to hide this fact

I am stating that the fact of low crime rates in London should not be undermined in favour of conspiracy theories that are used to demonise the civil service.

Even if there is a link between crime and immigration the low rate makes it far less of a problem than the other societal problems we face, like the quick political points scored by demonising and hollowing out the civil service.

> even though this is already something the government does

This government already bows to this immigration nonsense. They are not a good example in your case.

Re: The UK is shaping a future of precrime and dissent management (2025)

#307

Post by ddq »

simmerup wrote: post #298
ddq wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then why did you say 80-year old women were "the type to sledgehammer police officers though apparently" and then immediate shift the goalposts? Further, the statement "The only people being arrested in the Uk are for supporting a proscribed group" is patently false; the UK government has not limited its arrests for social media posts to those expressing support for Hamas. You are not engaging in good faith discussio…

You know Palestine Action are a proscribed group right?

"The only people being arrested in the Uk are for supporting a proscribed group."

Why are you claiming that members of Palestine Action are the only people being arrested in the UK for speech? That is not true. Low-effort, bad-faith trolling contributes nothing to the discussion.

https://archive.ph/20250906150110/https://www.telegraph.co.u...

Re: The UK is shaping a future of precrime and dissent management (2025)

#308

Post by Incipient »

nephihaha wrote: post #223
dijit wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is, the BBC is incredibly partial, depending on which area of the BBC we're talking about. BBC News on the web vs BBC News the programme, vs BBC worldwide (which is a seperate org inside the BBC), then there's regional BBC and the prime time talk shows (the hard hitting Andrew Neil and co). So, when someone says "the BBC is biased against the left" or "the BBC is biased agains the right"; ironically they ca…

The BBC is institutionally biased in two major ways: * Pro the royal family since it is chartered by them. * Against Scottish independence since it would lose 10% of its funding.

I don't think there is anything wrong with the national media service being 'pro the nation' (counting the UK as the nation for arguments sake).

That said however they can't make things up, or overtly bury critical stories...but putting a softer slant on them wouldn't be unreasonable.

Re: The UK is shaping a future of precrime and dissent management (2025)

#309

Post by vablings »

9JollyOtter wrote: post #268
vablings wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

New labour really laid the groundwork for alot of the orwellian laws that are in place now. Its a shame nobody who has been elected since sought to roll them back...

There is simply no-incentive to. Generally there are many incentives to increase the number of laws, as they can be seen as doing something about a some recent issue. Many of the recent online safety laws (even before OSA) are good examples of this. Additionally Britain generally has a problem with politicians believing that the only solution to a problem is banning/regulating things, regardless what the root cause m…

40 RA, my mum used to drive a Vauxhall Carlton

> Additionally Britain generally has a problem with politicians believing that the only solution to a problem is banning/regulating things, regardless what the root cause might be. Banning/regulating something requires new legal powers. So more laws.

I mean it's true and it does work for the most part. The bans on knives, drain cleaner etc have reduced the number of these kinds of crimes especially in London. It's hard to argue against something when a lot of this kind of policymaking is effective

Re: The UK is shaping a future of precrime and dissent management (2025)

#310

Post by solumunus »

9JollyOtter wrote: post #303
solumunus wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK dude. You’re bothering to respond so you could just properly respond. It’s entirely possible that I have gaps in my knowledge and can hear a new argument and find it reasonable, since I’ve spent almost no time debating Brexit. Obviously I’m now just going to assume you don’t have a decent argument, which you will point at and say “see!”. It’s an easy cop out for you. What’s the point in expressing opinions if you’…

> What’s the point in expressing opinions if you’re going to refuse to put any weight behind them whatsoever? I did a long detailed response in this thread where I spent a lot of time detailing why I believed somebody's assessment of about about Dominic Cummings was incorrect (I actually listened to what he had to say). So I've already have put weight behind my opinions. Your reply on this topic is essentially leadin…

You don’t have to, but it would have taken less effort than your responses so far. If you’re not interested in someone’s question then you should probably just ignore it rather than write paragraphs about why you’re not interested in it, but you do you!
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