Earlier quoted context omitted.
>and people recover. So you read nothing about how graduates during 2008 pretty much had forever stunted careers? They aren't put on the streets, but it's clear some very long term damage is being done to people simply as a matter of bad luck.
> So you read nothing about how graduates during 2008 pretty much had forever stunted careers? Myself included. Graduated in '08, had to work various minimum wage jobs in retail for several years because no one was hiring. I'm just now at a point in my career, nearing 40, where I should have been at 28. Degree doesn't matter much when your only work experience is 5 years of working at Starbucks, and you barely have p…
Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?
301–310 of 693 posts
Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?
#302Earlier quoted context omitted.
New folks will never be hired. RIP to the CS degree. Old staff will be exited. Especially senior and mid level management. If you lose your job, you won't get the same comp again. The days of $500K TC are long behind us. It's the era of downsizing and outsourcing while blaming AI. None of this has anything to do with AI. That's just a scapegoat. Google and Amazon are culling entire US teams and rebuilding them in Asi…
I’ve been told for 20 years that in 5 years my job is going to be offshored. If they could have they would have long ago. My theory: We had a crazy bubble of hiring during zero rate interest. We are living through a nasty correction. AI is moving the needle too, but it’s mostly being used as a scapegoat to save face and explain away cleaning up failed ZRIP yolo plans that didn’t pan out. We’ve also haven’t had a seri…
When I came into the job market the rule of thumb was it would take 1 month/10k of salary to find a new job. Over time that moved to 1 month/20k of salary or so. Even then, someone making a FAANG type salary should be prepared to look for a ~year for a new job matching that salary. Being able to bounce from job to job while getting big raises along the way was the exception, and ZIRP only exacerbated it.
Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?
#303Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Perhaps true if you go east far enough, seems objectively wrong for the majority of the west though. Much of the (American) millennials generation believes a story that they’re worse off. I feel it is a convenient story for people to tell themselves and blame someone else for their perceived losses. But I pulled up several articles supporting my claim with a quick search, even though the opposite narrative is more…
The numbers that interest me are comparing home ownership rates at various ages between the generational groups Lots of research shows about a 8-10% gap, that only at very specific ages finally achieved parity. The consequence of this is a difference in wealth building, economic security, and family planning for millions.
Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?
#304From my experience, it's grim at the moment for software developer jobs. I got laid off in August and it's been rough. I'm in my early 30s so I can't compare it to 2008, but I've been laid off before and I've never seen it this bad.
Same story here. I work in games so it's always been boom or bust. It's real bad now. - out of college it took 3 months to find work. It sucked, took over 100 apps, but I found a nice project. - after that project ended, 3 more months (but less stressful because I had more than one role I was interviewing with). - Then layoffs, another 3 months in 2022 where it was very competitive (I was in at least 4-5 interview pi…
Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?
#305Ftfa (the part I could read) “ growth is buoyed by an exuberant stockmarket and artificial-intelligence investment, while ordinary Americans languish” Black Friday sales set records and it not even cyber Monday. If Americans are languishing then shouldn’t holiday spending be down?
Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?
#306Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I’ve been told for 20 years that in 5 years my job is going to be offshored. If they could have they would have long ago. "This time it's different." 20 years ago China and India had a nascent tech industry. Now they're booming. Talented folks all over the world - Asia, Latin America, and elsewhere - are working on hard problems. > We had a crazy bubble of hiring during zero rate interest. We did. This has had a tr…
My personal experience, YMMV: I was told that once video conferencing got good and internet and infrastructure became better in other places, "this time it will be different." I was told once universities in other countries started pumping out a pool of great candidates, expats who worked for FAANGs in the US would go home to found their own companies using that pool, and those companies would take over the world. "t…
On the other hand, in the 2020s, India, Israel, most Eastern European states, Ireland, Costa Rica, and a couple others have launched industrial promotion subsidizes for software offshoring - often providing US$10k-30k per head in federal and local subsidizes along with subsidized office space and real estate and tax windows.
That along with the internal frictions of async work largely being ironed out due to the COVID remote work period along with an exodus of mid-level managers on work visas during the early pandemic layoffs which had an outsized impact on Indian, Chinese, and Eastern European techies in the US made offshoring much more cost competitive and effective than it was 25 years ago.
Putting your head in the sand saying it's no big deal is honestly very stupid if you are hoping to maintain your career for the next 5-10 years in any white collar job.
And it's only going to get even more competitive now that the Indian government is enacting labor reform laws to align Indian labor laws with China's [0], making it even more cost effective for businesses to offshore by reducing regulatory overhead [1].
[0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-21/india-imp...
[1] - https://www.fortuneindia.com/business-news/tech-sector-expec...
Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?
#307Earlier quoted context omitted.
New folks will never be hired. RIP to the CS degree. Old staff will be exited. Especially senior and mid level management. If you lose your job, you won't get the same comp again. The days of $500K TC are long behind us. It's the era of downsizing and outsourcing while blaming AI. None of this has anything to do with AI. That's just a scapegoat. Google and Amazon are culling entire US teams and rebuilding them in Asi…
> New folks will never be hired. RIP to the CS degree. We've just hired a couple of graduates, with the expectation that they are going to take some time to grow. What I'm seeing right now is a huge influx of candidates from large companies that have zero skill. I'm not exaggerating, they can't code anything. And it's not just AI, they started working before ChatGPT came out. Others in the industry are seeing the sam…
Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?
#308From my experience, it's grim at the moment for software developer jobs. I got laid off in August and it's been rough. I'm in my early 30s so I can't compare it to 2008, but I've been laid off before and I've never seen it this bad.
It is all due to outsourcing. AI/H1B isn't taking that much job. Unless government put penalties on outsourcing market isn't going to improve.
Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?
#309Earlier quoted context omitted.
In all the previous job market contractions the root cause has been money - increasing costs, less investment capital, etc. This is the first time the root cause appears to be tech (if you believe the announcements about layoffs). That makes it different.
Nah. It's not different. Money in the tech industry has always chased the hype cycle. We're approaching the peak of inflated expectations for LLMs and then in a few years the AI industry will crash into the trough of disillusionment. That doesn't mean that LLMs are useless but in many sectors of the real economy they will have only a slow and limited impact. https://www.gartner.com/en/research/methodologies/gartner-h…
>Can you please provide a reference for the assertion you just made
>Sure, here it is:
> 404, please double check
> I apologize for the mistake, I have double checked, here is the corrected link:
> Still 404, please always double check a link by actually visiting and reading it
x5 before I gave up.
Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?
#310Earlier quoted context omitted.
I meant everyone with a good tech job, not everyone in the country. About a 1:1000 ratio I'd guess.
Sure, but there was nothing stopping people with $10k in savings in 2015 from buying Nvidia. If someone with $10k in savings had bought Nvidia in 2015, they’d have $2.5m today. But that only works for a relatively small number of people before the $2.5m is no longer $2.5m - they’re all drawing from the same $6 trillion pot. “Everyone with a good tech job” is accurate, but besides the point, it would work exactly the…
Yes, "Everyone with a good tech job" has a significantly higher chance of keeping or holding tech RSUs, and have conviction that investing in tech is going to pay off.
> but literally cannot work for everyone at the same time
Yes, that is how the world works. Anything that makes you successful would not work for everyone at the same time.