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Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

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Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>and people recover. So you read nothing about how graduates during 2008 pretty much had forever stunted careers? They aren't put on the streets, but it's clear some very long term damage is being done to people simply as a matter of bad luck.

> So you read nothing about how graduates during 2008 pretty much had forever stunted careers? Myself included. Graduated in '08, had to work various minimum wage jobs in retail for several years because no one was hiring. I'm just now at a point in my career, nearing 40, where I should have been at 28. Degree doesn't matter much when your only work experience is 5 years of working at Starbucks, and you barely have p…

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Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#302
post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

New folks will never be hired. RIP to the CS degree. Old staff will be exited. Especially senior and mid level management. If you lose your job, you won't get the same comp again. The days of $500K TC are long behind us. It's the era of downsizing and outsourcing while blaming AI. None of this has anything to do with AI. That's just a scapegoat. Google and Amazon are culling entire US teams and rebuilding them in Asi…

I’ve been told for 20 years that in 5 years my job is going to be offshored. If they could have they would have long ago. My theory: We had a crazy bubble of hiring during zero rate interest. We are living through a nasty correction. AI is moving the needle too, but it’s mostly being used as a scapegoat to save face and explain away cleaning up failed ZRIP yolo plans that didn’t pan out. We’ve also haven’t had a seri…

I got my first programming job in ~98 while still in college. I had family members telling me then that programming was a dead end and was all going to be outsourced. I lived through .com, GFC, etc... This does feel more like a reversion to the mean at this moment rather than some crash...yet. I feel for the people who only have known a job market that was easy to step into and paid great salaries because they don't know anything else. It's a lot like the people who think they are great stock pickers because they've only been investing in the greatest bull market we've ever seen.

When I came into the job market the rule of thumb was it would take 1 month/10k of salary to find a new job. Over time that moved to 1 month/20k of salary or so. Even then, someone making a FAANG type salary should be prepared to look for a ~year for a new job matching that salary. Being able to bounce from job to job while getting big raises along the way was the exception, and ZIRP only exacerbated it.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#303
post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Perhaps true if you go east far enough, seems objectively wrong for the majority of the west though. Much of the (American) millennials generation believes a story that they’re worse off. I feel it is a convenient story for people to tell themselves and blame someone else for their perceived losses. But I pulled up several articles supporting my claim with a quick search, even though the opposite narrative is more…

The numbers that interest me are comparing home ownership rates at various ages between the generational groups Lots of research shows about a 8-10% gap, that only at very specific ages finally achieved parity. The consequence of this is a difference in wealth building, economic security, and family planning for millions.

Why does home ownership on its own matter? Net worth is inclusive of housing and assets and debt. And net worth is a direct measure of the wealth that is being built.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#304

From my experience, it's grim at the moment for software developer jobs. I got laid off in August and it's been rough. I'm in my early 30s so I can't compare it to 2008, but I've been laid off before and I've never seen it this bad.

Same story here. I work in games so it's always been boom or bust. It's real bad now. - out of college it took 3 months to find work. It sucked, took over 100 apps, but I found a nice project. - after that project ended, 3 more months (but less stressful because I had more than one role I was interviewing with). - Then layoffs, another 3 months in 2022 where it was very competitive (I was in at least 4-5 interview pi…

Game dev acquaintances here in Belgium and back in Turkey say it's never been so bad. Studios aren't shutting down but also not hiring over here. Your industry is not having a good time…

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#305
post #4

Ftfa (the part I could read) “ growth is buoyed by an exuberant stockmarket and artificial-intelligence investment, while ordinary Americans languish” Black Friday sales set records and it not even cyber Monday. If Americans are languishing then shouldn’t holiday spending be down?

Others have pointed out the brackets really buying, but I'd also argue that people deferring their purchases to a period of sales is generally not a good thing.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#306
post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’ve been told for 20 years that in 5 years my job is going to be offshored. If they could have they would have long ago. "This time it's different." 20 years ago China and India had a nascent tech industry. Now they're booming. Talented folks all over the world - Asia, Latin America, and elsewhere - are working on hard problems. > We had a crazy bubble of hiring during zero rate interest. We did. This has had a tr…

My personal experience, YMMV: I was told that once video conferencing got good and internet and infrastructure became better in other places, "this time it will be different." I was told once universities in other countries started pumping out a pool of great candidates, expats who worked for FAANGs in the US would go home to found their own companies using that pool, and those companies would take over the world. "t…

The difference is, offshoring in the 2000s was largely private sector driven with minimal subsidizes and investment promotion programs lead by countries and their local governments.

On the other hand, in the 2020s, India, Israel, most Eastern European states, Ireland, Costa Rica, and a couple others have launched industrial promotion subsidizes for software offshoring - often providing US$10k-30k per head in federal and local subsidizes along with subsidized office space and real estate and tax windows.

That along with the internal frictions of async work largely being ironed out due to the COVID remote work period along with an exodus of mid-level managers on work visas during the early pandemic layoffs which had an outsized impact on Indian, Chinese, and Eastern European techies in the US made offshoring much more cost competitive and effective than it was 25 years ago.

Putting your head in the sand saying it's no big deal is honestly very stupid if you are hoping to maintain your career for the next 5-10 years in any white collar job.

And it's only going to get even more competitive now that the Indian government is enacting labor reform laws to align Indian labor laws with China's [0], making it even more cost effective for businesses to offshore by reducing regulatory overhead [1].

[0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-21/india-imp...

[1] - https://www.fortuneindia.com/business-news/tech-sector-expec...

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

New folks will never be hired. RIP to the CS degree. Old staff will be exited. Especially senior and mid level management. If you lose your job, you won't get the same comp again. The days of $500K TC are long behind us. It's the era of downsizing and outsourcing while blaming AI. None of this has anything to do with AI. That's just a scapegoat. Google and Amazon are culling entire US teams and rebuilding them in Asi…

> New folks will never be hired. RIP to the CS degree. We've just hired a couple of graduates, with the expectation that they are going to take some time to grow. What I'm seeing right now is a huge influx of candidates from large companies that have zero skill. I'm not exaggerating, they can't code anything. And it's not just AI, they started working before ChatGPT came out. Others in the industry are seeing the sam…

We posted a job a year ago for a dev. We received terrible candidates, but still tried to fill it from the pool. 2/3 ghosted the interview and the other I'm not sure had ever done anything in iOS. I just pulled the job instead of wasting more time. I'm planning to post another job in the new year and I'm not looking forward to wading through the garbage.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#308

From my experience, it's grim at the moment for software developer jobs. I got laid off in August and it's been rough. I'm in my early 30s so I can't compare it to 2008, but I've been laid off before and I've never seen it this bad.

It is all due to outsourcing. AI/H1B isn't taking that much job. Unless government put penalties on outsourcing market isn't going to improve.

I'm seeing like 80% of software dev applications at my company are H1B/OPT, like thousands of candidates - and they're getting hired just because of the sheer numbers they drown everyone else out. So yes, they are 100% taking jobs. A lot of them. I can't comprehend how there are so many.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#309
post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In all the previous job market contractions the root cause has been money - increasing costs, less investment capital, etc. This is the first time the root cause appears to be tech (if you believe the announcements about layoffs). That makes it different.

Nah. It's not different. Money in the tech industry has always chased the hype cycle. We're approaching the peak of inflated expectations for LLMs and then in a few years the AI industry will crash into the trough of disillusionment. That doesn't mean that LLMs are useless but in many sectors of the real economy they will have only a slow and limited impact. https://www.gartner.com/en/research/methodologies/gartner-h…

Its just so weird how demonstrably insane the hype cycle this time around is. Everytime I think ChatGPT and Gemini are improving, it hits me with some monstrously stupid hallucinations. Here's how my conversation with GPT 5.1 went this afternoon:

>Can you please provide a reference for the assertion you just made

>Sure, here it is:

> 404, please double check

> I apologize for the mistake, I have double checked, here is the corrected link:

> Still 404, please always double check a link by actually visiting and reading it

x5 before I gave up.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#310
post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I meant everyone with a good tech job, not everyone in the country. About a 1:1000 ratio I'd guess.

Sure, but there was nothing stopping people with $10k in savings in 2015 from buying Nvidia. If someone with $10k in savings had bought Nvidia in 2015, they’d have $2.5m today. But that only works for a relatively small number of people before the $2.5m is no longer $2.5m - they’re all drawing from the same $6 trillion pot. “Everyone with a good tech job” is accurate, but besides the point, it would work exactly the…

> it would work exactly the same if you limited it to “everyone who’s a plumber” or “everyone who’s a fedex driver”

Yes, "Everyone with a good tech job" has a significantly higher chance of keeping or holding tech RSUs, and have conviction that investing in tech is going to pay off.

> but literally cannot work for everyone at the same time

Yes, that is how the world works. Anything that makes you successful would not work for everyone at the same time.

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