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Germany outfitted half a million balconies with solar panels

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Re: Germany outfitted half a million balconies with solar panels

#301

Post by morsch »

alexey-salmin wrote: post #259
pintxo wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a strange take. This is not so much a policy applied from the top, but requested from the bottom. People want to contribute to the transition, and balcony solar installs are a cheap and simple way to do this.

I do see it as the result of policy applied from the top, the policy that resulted in 2x household electricity prices compared to the US (which amounts to 3x difference if you adjust for median household income). I replied in another thread but I still remember how in my childhood all the ordinary people had to grow potatoes. The state didn't order them to, it just created food shortages that's all. You can say it wa…

Coincidentally, CO2 emissions per capita in the US are also about 2 times that of Germany.

Re: Germany outfitted half a million balconies with solar panels

#302

Post by jagermo »

cjpearson wrote: post #283
jillesvangurp wrote: post #246

Germany did one simple thing (uncharacteristically) which is removing all the bureaucracy here. Just go ahead and do it. It's fine. Cost in the article is cited at 550 euro. I just browsed amazon.de and you can buy complete plug and play kits here in Germany for as little as 239 euro. Most kits are priced between 300-350 euro. I did not see a many kits over 500. I pay about 70 euro per month for electricity. If it sa…

A big factor in the quick return (and maybe one reason for its popularity) is that Germany has some of the most expensive electricity in the world. The ROI doesn't look as attractive in France, the US or Norway.

Some good points, i have a few thoughts to add.

Norway: yes, they are doing fine (80% EV, btw, so it seems you can actually use EVs in colder weather... I think the nordics are actually way ahead of the rest of Europe when it comes to sustainable energy creation, with norway getting about 90% last year from Hydro - super impressive. https://lowcarbonpower.org/region/Norway

France: I think they might turn around, because their low prices are tied to massive subsidies (that are scheduled to end in part end of 2025). And, France has the weather and sun to be even more successfull. That would however mean a decentralization of the power grid and probably storage solutions (batteries, hydro or h2), something thats complicated and not sexy to sell to the public - one of the reasons Germany is so far behind. Our grid is stuck in the past and enough company lobby politicians to keep it that way.

US: it is probably less of a pricing issue and more a topic of resiliance and stabilizing the power grid. It looks like rolling blackouts in the US get more, especially during the summer months (where solar could directly be used for the AC). https://urbanclimate.gatech.edu/current-projects/blackout-tr...

I think it would especially make sense to run your AC on if you have a flexible plan - i remember so many stories of people suddenly having to pay thousands during peak times in summer.

California, Texas and most of the rust belt does have enough solar to easily get by, especially if you add a battery backup.

Re: Germany outfitted half a million balconies with solar panels

#303

Post by akoboldfrying »

MattPalmer1086 wrote: post #268
kronicum2025 wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don’t understand this sentiment at all. They didn’t sacrifice their balcony, and this is electricity that the central utility organizations couldn’t generate. Many parts of the world don’t even allow this kind of solar panel to be used by individuals, so its legality is actually a policy success. Completely disagree. This is definitely electricity that central utility organizations could generate. A central metho…

You characterise massively distributed power generation as a single point of failure for each house? Even though they also have the grid? I don't think you know what single point of failure means. This is the opposite of a single point of failure architecture.

I agree that GP's take is broadly wrong, but there is a sense in which it does introduce a single point of failure: the sun. If everyone has solar panels, an overcast day zaps an entire city/region.

Re: Germany outfitted half a million balconies with solar panels

#304

Post by nebula8804 »

slow_typist wrote: post #111
nebula8804 wrote: post #87

Has anyone done any studies on the co2 emission of manufacturing one panel like this? Curious how long it will take to offset.

585 kWh/m^2 median energy consumption for production according to a 2013 study cited on the Wikipedia article on energy return on investment. 440 W panel has about 2 m^2. It is probably a tad better now, because lower mass of silicon per meter squared. That translates to roughly 2.5 years of energy payback time in Germany under good conditions (azimuth SE to SW and elevation about 30 to 60 degrees, no shadow). Give a…

Wow that is pretty good, lines up pretty nicely with the approx monetary break even as well. Impressive!

Wonder if there is anything that can be done to lengthen the life of the panel as much as possible. I've read elsewhere that solar panels have a theoretical lifespan of 25 years with the panels slowly degrading and not failing all at once. I dont know if these specific panels are different but I wonder if the panels are kept clean or something if that would maximize the lifespan?

Re: Germany outfitted half a million balconies with solar panels

#305

Post by pintxo »

alexey-salmin wrote: post #259
pintxo wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a strange take. This is not so much a policy applied from the top, but requested from the bottom. People want to contribute to the transition, and balcony solar installs are a cheap and simple way to do this.

I do see it as the result of policy applied from the top, the policy that resulted in 2x household electricity prices compared to the US (which amounts to 3x difference if you adjust for median household income). I replied in another thread but I still remember how in my childhood all the ordinary people had to grow potatoes. The state didn't order them to, it just created food shortages that's all. You can say it wa…

This is assuming people don’t want to go net zero, and people not understanding that going there requires change, which will be costly. I‘d argue there is a majority in Germany supporting the transition to green energy, accepting higher prices as a result.

Re: Germany outfitted half a million balconies with solar panels

#306

Post by rcxdude »

plantain wrote: post #101
Kim_Bruning wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The subsidy question is interesting, but in Germany these balcony panels are ~ €600 unsubsidized (depending on the exact kit; see my numbers elsewhere in this discussion) and still pay back in 5 years. The economics work with and/or without government help.

The fact the economics of DIY make sense, is the evidence of the market/state failure. (whether they really do make sense without fanciful efficiency calculations, I leave to you). https://www.investigativeeconomics.org/p/solar-is-only-cheap...

It makes sense for two reasons: firstly there's limited economies of scale in solar panels: they more or less make the same amount of energy per unit area and per dollar regardless of the size of the installation (rooftop is usually more expensive for installation but these systems have near zero installation cost). Secondly, because the generation is local you're not paying for any margin, co-ordination costs, or transmission costs. This secondary effect is already enough to offset the increased cost of rooftop installation in many cases.

(And maybe you can consider this a market failure, in that it doesn't fit some naïve idea of an efficient market, but you're always going to be paying for someone to make and take on the risk of the big, centralised version of things)

Re: Germany outfitted half a million balconies with solar panels

#307

Post by akoboldfrying »

kronicum2025 wrote: post #210
vineyardmike wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand this sentiment at all. They didn’t sacrifice their balcony, and this is electricity that the central utility organizations couldn’t generate. Many parts of the world don’t even allow this kind of solar panel to be used by individuals, so its legality is actually a policy success. Generally, balcony panels are hung off the side of the railing, so no space was lost. If this was blocking out windows o…

> I don’t understand this sentiment at all. They didn’t sacrifice their balcony, and this is electricity that the central utility organizations couldn’t generate. Many parts of the world don’t even allow this kind of solar panel to be used by individuals, so its legality is actually a policy success. Completely disagree. This is definitely electricity that central utility organizations could generate. A central metho…

> The biggest problem with the above is that now the govt has even less visibility on planning their electricity needs and therefore cannot plan electric infrastructure better.

Only in the same way as allowing people to buy as many electric appliances as they want (or, indeed, have as many babies as they want) does.

In reality, estimating voluntary uptake of solar panels is almost certainly trivial. Energy producers already successfully model the variation in electricity demand throughout the day extremely accurately in order to optimise generation parameters, without everyone having to request government permission to turn on their kettle at 8:02 each morning.

Re: Germany outfitted half a million balconies with solar panels

#308

Post by mschuster91 »

cjpearson wrote: post #283
jillesvangurp wrote: post #246

Germany did one simple thing (uncharacteristically) which is removing all the bureaucracy here. Just go ahead and do it. It's fine. Cost in the article is cited at 550 euro. I just browsed amazon.de and you can buy complete plug and play kits here in Germany for as little as 239 euro. Most kits are priced between 300-350 euro. I did not see a many kits over 500. I pay about 70 euro per month for electricity. If it sa…

A big factor in the quick return (and maybe one reason for its popularity) is that Germany has some of the most expensive electricity in the world. The ROI doesn't look as attractive in France, the US or Norway.

> A big factor in the quick return (and maybe one reason for its popularity) is that Germany has some of the most expensive electricity in the world.

Part of that is because our method of pricing is different than it is in the rest of the world.

It doesn't matter if you got a 3x50A or 3x200A three phase service, only during construction (because a 3x200A uplink will obviously be a decent bit pricier), the monthly fee is the same and very low (I think ~15€ a month). All other costs are rolled into the per-kWh price, making it appear much more expensive than in other countries. On top of that we have a ridiculous tax load because large industry is exempt from a lot of things and consumers gotta pick up the slack.

In contrast, Italians for example pay fees based on capacity which means a home there will usually have 3x10A uplink, something greatly troubling EV adoption and moving off of natural gas [1].

Additionally, Germany is one pricing zone whereas ENTSO-E, the European Commission and the Northern German population would rather like to have two or three pricing zones, given that there is a serious lack of North->South transmission capacity, but our "beloved" Bavarian prime minister Söder plus his green counterpart in BaWü Kretschmann both try to prevent that as much as possible because it would send prices in the south skyrocketing [2].

[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/1ksqrq1/t...

[2] https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/energiepoli...

Re: Germany outfitted half a million balconies with solar panels

#309

Post by pyrale »

adrianN wrote: post #274
pyrale wrote: post #267

Possibly one of the worst possible investment choices From a collective point of view when it comes to electricity. One has to question how this choice came to make sense to the german public.

It costs the state nothing to remove regulations preventing the installations and people who buy one see ROI of 15-20%. It also helps the grid by moving production closer to consumption.

> It also helps the grid by moving production closer to consumption.

On the side of the grid, balcony solar means grid maintenance is supported by less revenue (your utility bill pays for the grid, balcony solar expenses don't).

On the side of the producer, it means manageable production means are only amortized when balcony solar isn't producing (this isn't a small factor in a grid where electricity costs frequently reach zero). That increases the cost of electricity when the sun doesn't shine. Another aspect of this is that

These factors mean that balcony solar would be unprofitable if power was metered depending on real whole-system costs (e.g. market prices and/or a subscription for the grid). That it is profitable for some actors now just means that the cost system isn't aligned with the billing system. This isn't bad per se (people prefer to have predictable, stable energy costs), but can't be sustained in a system where this imbalance can be arbitraged.

Re: Germany outfitted half a million balconies with solar panels

#310

Post by watwut »

Ozzie_osman wrote: post #290
numlock86 wrote: post #238

> Germany outfitted half a million balconies with solar panels A more fitting title would be "Germany's citizens outfitted half a million balconies with solar panels". The current phrasing makes it sound like it's somehow a thing done by the government, which is not the case. If anything the government is one of the many forces slowing down this progress. And yes, I am aware of things like grid security and stability…

Given that these things are usually hindered by the government's bureaucracy, maybe the best title would be "Germany's government removes obstacles preventing residents from outfitting..."

Insisting that every improvement must be framed as something bad about government is how USA government became downright horrible.
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