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Tesla influencers tried coast-to-coast self-driving, hit debris before 60 miles

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Re: Tesla influencers tried coast-to-coast self-driving, hit debris before 60 miles

#301

Post by Xylakant »

ACCount37 wrote: post #222
Xylakant wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The statistics on this are much less clear than Tesla would like us to believe. There's a lot of confounding factors, among them the fact that the autonomous driver can decide to hand over things to a human the moment things get hairy. The subsequent crash then gets credited to human error.

That's an often-repeated lie. Tesla's crash reporting rules: > To ensure our statistics are conservative, we count any crash in which Autopilot was deactivated within 5 seconds before impact, and we count all crashes in which the incident alert indicated an airbag or other active restraint deployed. NHSTA's reporting rules are even more conservative: > Level 2 ADAS: Entities named in the General Order must report a c…

Even if this were the case, it would still skew the statistics in favor of Tesla: The Autopilot gets to hand of the complicated and dangerous driving conditions to the human who then needs to deal with them. The human to the opposite cannot do the same - they need to deal with all hard situations as they come, with no fallback to hand off to.

Re: Tesla influencers tried coast-to-coast self-driving, hit debris before 60 miles

#302

Post by mhh__ »

lm28469 wrote: post #167
mhh__ wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it's not your money does it matter? I don't think it's fair to say he doesn't deliver anything e.g. he did cars, rockets, and now AI (the rate X are building out training capacity is genuinely astonishing) at the same time.

idk man, I'm not in the matrix deep enough to give a shit about "building out training capacity" of LLMs, I think there are way more important topics like not destroying the fabric of our society and political systems, but idk, I guess I'm just a far left antifa maniac terrorist or something

Yeah we should spend the money on the HR dept instead

Re: Tesla influencers tried coast-to-coast self-driving, hit debris before 60 miles

#303

Post by ACCount37 »

senordevnyc wrote: post #299
ACCount37 wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We had sensors that can beat "a human whose vision got bad enough to get the license revoked" used as far back as in the 2004 DARPA competition. That got us some of the way towards self-driving, but not all the way. AI was the main bottleneck back then. 20 years later, it still is.

We don't have a bottleneck anymore. We have Waymo. They seemed to have solved whatever the issue was...I wonder what the main difference between the Waymo system and the Tesla system is?

The "main difference" is that Waymo wouldn't even try to drive coast to coast.

Because it's geofenced to shit. Restricted entirely to a few select, fully pre-mapped areas. They only recently started trying to add more freeways to the fence.

Re: Tesla influencers tried coast-to-coast self-driving, hit debris before 60 miles

#304

Post by senordevnyc »

dmix wrote: post #193
zzzeek wrote: post #130

I rant about Elon a lot but can someone just explain to me how this keeps going on ? FSD is almost completely a solved problem by the likes of Waymo etc. Why does anyone care what Tesla is failing to do with FSD? Is this all about, "how can we invent FSD without lidar"? Why are we bothering, because cybertruck owners don't want a dorky box on top of their truck? Does their truck already not look ridiculous?

It's almost entirely a product/economic gamble. Basically: "How do we get self-driving into millions of regular consumer cars without doubling the price by adding expensive sensors and redesigning the vehicle around huge chunky sensors" Waymo is focused on Taxis for a reason because it's likely going to be unaffordable, except to people driving Lambos. But that also may be fine for a big chunk of the public who don't…

Is LIDAR full of unobtainium? Is there some fundamental first-principles reason that the cost of LIDAR can't go down by orders of magnitude? Isn't that kind of reasoning from first principles what Elon's genius was supposed to be about, like with cost of accessing space? But apparently he thinks a spinning laser is always going to cost six figures?

Re: Tesla influencers tried coast-to-coast self-driving, hit debris before 60 miles

#305

Post by senordevnyc »

ekianjo wrote: post #70
0xcafecafe wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any software that works 90% or even 99% of the time is not safe software especially when it has to be used to operate machines with deadly power.

sounds like you are arguing that humans should not be driving

Humans are way better than 99% at driving.

Re: Tesla influencers tried coast-to-coast self-driving, hit debris before 60 miles

#306

Post by JumpinJack_Cash »

panick21_ wrote: post #292
rhetocj23 wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. They are proxies. But not the truest measures of success.

Ok so how is SpaceX not succcessful. Please explain.

> > Ok so how is SpaceX not succcessful. Please explain.

Only isolated people need Starklink and 95% of people on Earth live in urban cities with pop > 100,000. So it's a product for the 5%

Re: Tesla influencers tried coast-to-coast self-driving, hit debris before 60 miles

#307

Post by fuzzfactor »

mynameisvlad wrote: post #261
foobarian wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if there is no debris the other 999 times, and the system works fine? The video does not give me that information as a prospective Tesla customer. This looks like a fluke to me.

Those 999 other times, the system might work fine for the first 60 miles . This is a cross-country trip. LA to New York is 2776 miles without charging. It crashed the first time in the first 2% of the journey. And not a small intervention or accident either. How you could possibly see this as anything other than FSD being a total failure is beyond me.

>asking a different question: how good would the FSD system be at completing a coast-to-coast trip?

>They made it about 2.5% of the planned trip on Tesla FSD v13.9 before crashing the vehicle.

This really does need to be considered preliminary data based on only one trial.

And so far that's 2.5% as good as you would need to make it one way, one time.

Or 1.25% as good as you need to make it there & back.

People will just have to wait and see how it goes if they do anything to try and bring the average up.

That's about 100:1 odds against getting there & back.

One time.

Don't think I would want to be the second one to try it.

If somebody does take the risk and makes it without any human assistance though, maybe they (or the car) deserve a ticker-tape parade when they get there like Chas Lindbergh :)

Re: Tesla influencers tried coast-to-coast self-driving, hit debris before 60 miles

#308

Post by exe34 »

Fricken wrote: post #209
exe34 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assume you spotted the problem? Or are you saying you missed it?

He's saying the more a driver trusts a partially automated driving system the less likely they are to be paying attention themselves.

I misread the ellipsis as sarcasm.

Re: Tesla influencers tried coast-to-coast self-driving, hit debris before 60 miles

#309

Post by mcculley »

I do not understand the official position of Tesla on FSD (Supervised).

The owner's manual Tesla has posted on www.tesla.com says, "Full Self-Driving (Supervised) is a hands-on feature that requires you to pay attention to the road at all times. Keep your hands on the steering wheel at all times..." [0]

The owners of Tesla vehicles are saying that they can just relax and not keep hands on the wheel.

Is Tesla maintaining a more conservative stance while encouraging drivers to do dumb things? Or is the owner's manual just out of date?

0: https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/modely/en_us/GUID-2CB6080...

Re: Tesla influencers tried coast-to-coast self-driving, hit debris before 60 miles

#310

Post by mcculley »

magicalhippo wrote: post #230
general1465 wrote: post #50

Tangentially - If you as a European happen to drive on US highways, you will noticed that they are heavily littered with fallen cargo, aluminum ladders, huge amount of shredded tires and occasionally a trailer without a towing car... It has been so bizarre for me to observe this. Nobody is cleaning that?

I'm from Norway, and visited a buddy in Florida back in the early 2000s. It was my first time to the US. I recall I was completely flabbergasted by all the cars just ditched along the highway. There were lots of them, just off the road into the grass on the side or whatever. I asked my buddy about it and he said it was usually tires, as it was cheaper to buy another car than get new tires... Well that didn't help my…

When I was a boy in Florida in the 1970s, there was an annual inspection for automobiles. Some other states still do this. It would certainly improve overall safety on the roads if we still had any minimum requirements.
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