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America’s incarceration rate is in decline

theatlantic.com

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Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#301

Post by leptons »

Spivak wrote: post #132
leptons wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Availability of pornography has cut down the rate of rapes significantly. Too bad the republicans are going to try to ban all porn pretty soon, according to their stated agenda. They do love their wealthy donors that run the prison-industrial-complex.

This would be a good theory if it was supported at all by data. There has been a decrease but if you squint it's a flat line. The best you can really say is that the availability of pornography is neutral.

I have seen the data that suggests strongly that pornography lowers rapes. You've put up no data to refute that, so until you do I will continue believing the data I saw. If you do put up some actual data to support your claims (instead of just saying "nuh uhh"), I'll review it and then provide my own.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#302

Post by qingcharles »

pengaru wrote: post #3

Does that mean we can stop keeping mouth wash and deodorant behind lock and key on store shelves and resume locking up the criminals making messes of our cities?

Depends on the area. The area I lived in last year, it was rare to enter a Walgreens that wasn't actively being pillaged by shoplifters. I remember when they announced they were closing the only local Wal-mart (due to excessive shoplifting, allegedly) -- that same day the shoplifters went in like a swarm of locusts and stripped it bare. They had police at both exits, but they were powerless.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#303

Post by kergonath »

anitil wrote: post #161
pamelafox wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had my children at 36 and 38, and I'm the mother, and energy-wise, I've had no issues. Yes, they considered me to be of "advanced maternal age" in the OB department and gave me special treatment due to it, but my doctors told me that the "advanced maternal age" threshold (35) was based off outdated research anyway. In the bay area, most of the mothers I've met were around that age, and my friends are having their k…

I wish they called it "advanced maternal age" here. They use the delightful phrase "Geriatric pregnancy" in Australia

It’s just the technical medical term. I don’t think “advanced maternal age” is much better (advanced age at 35?). Besides, advanced age is exactly what geriatric means.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#304

Post by mrweasel »

arkey wrote: post #294
mrweasel wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in Denmark. You get around $1100 per month from the government as a university student, you then get around the same amount per child (not sure if a couple get half of that each). Still if you're two students, with a child, that's at least $3300 a month. That's not a lot of money, but there are also government loans you can get, and again, free daycare and subsidies for housing. It's not a get rich scheme, but it…

That's amazing. I'm in Spain, absolutely different landscape here. I guess your government is trying to boost both higher education and birth rates.

Yes and no, the government is trying to steer young people in the direction of engineering, nursing, doctors, teachers and trades (carpenter, bricklayer and so on), but it's not clear where the people are suppose to come from. Essentially Denmark is missing people in also every profession. There aren't enough people. My wife works in a field where unemployment is 12, not percent, but 12 people. So if you're unemployed, qualified to work in the EU and have a recognized education, applying for jobs in Denmark isn't a bad bet.

Various governments have also attempted to boost birth rates, but unsuccessfully.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#305

Post by qingcharles »

Kon-Peki wrote: post #91
antonymoose wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in a deep Red Bible thumping, back the blue, law and order county / state. About 7 years ago a former schoolmate of mine shot a man 6 times over a bad drug deal, fled the state to California. He was captured by the US Marshal and brought back to the county jail where he bonded out after 3 month. After his bonding out, he drove over to the victim’s parent’s house and performed a drive-by shooting, injuring none…

I live in super liberal Illinois, which recently ended cash bail. It was a rough transition period but now it is fully implemented and every judge and prosecutor knows how everything works. Cook County Jail (Chicago and close-in suburbs) population is higher than it has been in over a decade. They had to reopen a section of the jail to deal with it. Because people who do what that guy did no longer get to bond out. I…

The end of cash bail was the right idea, though. At the time it ended there were ~100 homicide defendants out on bail (usually $150K+), yet there were hundreds of people held for months or years on petty offenses for want of under $250 to bail out.

Wouldn't wish my worst enemy to be held in the CCJ, though. Easily one of the worst detention facilities in the USA.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#306

Post by marcus_holmes »

chownie wrote: post #293
defrost wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might want to brush up on your history. Aside from the peer comment pointing out the bleedingly obvious, there's also a bit of history here: In 1907 Justice Henry Bourne Higgins, President of the Commonwealth Conciliation and Arbitration Court, set the first federally arbitrated wages standard in Australia. Using the Sunshine Harvester Factory as a test case, Justice Higgins took the pioneering approach of hearin…

Can a man support a family of 5 on minimum wage in Australia, or did it stop working?

Minimum wage is more complicated in Australia. There are effectively minimum wage levels set per profession, known as awards.

This is the list of awards: https://www.fairwork.gov.au/employment-conditions/awards/lis... it's pretty extensive

Each award is also complex, and covers a range of issues in the employment. For example, this is the Professional Employee award: https://awards.fairwork.gov.au/MA000065.html just working out what the minimum wage would be for a graduate engineer with 2 years experience is a complex, detailed matter.

But yes, probably, for most professions you could reasonably expect to support a family of 5 on the award, depending on location and definition of "support". Affording a house would largely depend on an additional inheritance, though.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#307

Post by agurk »

EGreg wrote: post #237
b112 wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Too far is an understatement. People keep poking at the wrong reasons, but in some societies it is quite dire. South Korea with this year of 1, when 2.1 means 'static', means more than halving the population every 30 years or so. For a reverse comparison, if you take a penny and double it every day, you end up with > $5M in 30 days. And yet this birthrate issue doesn't take into account plague, war, natural disasters…

Throughout most of human history we have had less than a billion people. More people are alive today than have ever lived. And you are concerned that the population will drop by a half? Everyone will be richer and better off. The amount of pollution and resource use will be solved too. The underlying input to that is the number of people. One third of arable land is undergoing desertification Insects and other specie…

> More people are alive today than have ever lived.

Assuming you meant died instead of lived to avoid a potentially nonsensical reading, this is not true.

It seems this factoid[0] has been around since the 1970s, and at least in 2007 it was estimated to be 6% of people who'd ever lived being currently alive [1]

[0] In the original sense of factoid - being fact-like, but not a fact (i.e. not true). C.f. android, like a man

[1] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fact-or-fiction-l...

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#308

Post by modo_mario »

wredcoll wrote: post #239
b112 wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your proof that it will not decline further? If you have no proof, then at the very least the cause must be investigated. After all, the concern is that the current rate of declining birth rate, means extinction in a few centuries. You don't just shrug that off and say "oh well, it'll probably be just fine."

We don't just shrug off the fantasy that there will be zero children born in "a couple of centuries"?? What on earth am I reading?

We do. Because as you said it's a fantasy.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#309

Post by mettamage »

anyfoo wrote: post #95
wvenable wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My children are 12 years apart in age and being a parent in my 20s was a much better experience. I had less money, but I had more time. I wiser now, but I had more energy. I could relate to being a kid more. I'm not suggesting it's better. But people seem to automatically assume that being older when having kids as better. I know some much older parents who were not good parents. I know I would not make a good parent…

I did not have more time in my 20s. In my 20s and early 30s, I was busy “getting out there”. Building my life, my interests, my foundation (not just my career). Now I have a happy life to stand on, and can devote more time, attention, and energy to my family. I don’t deny that your way can work out as well. But OPs advice was “get children before you are 30, don’t wait until after”. Whereas my honest advice, based on…

It also depends on the person. I was not an adult at 27. I realized I was one at 32 though.

Kids at 27 would have been a bad bad idea. Kids at 32 as well (wrong partner). I’m even older now but I am with the right partner and naturally want kids now. Before her, the topic wouldn’t even cross my mind.

I think it’s really hard to give general advice if one doesn’t mention how their advice interacts with other variables

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#310

Post by tdiff »

casenmgreen wrote: post #25

Freakonomics argued that crime correlates to whether or not abortion is available. If it is not, crime rates are up, and by a lot. If it is, crime rates are down. When you flip from one to the other, takes about 15/20 years for the effect to show up. Rationale is that forcing parents to have their kids when they're not ready for them significantly increases delinquency in young adults. This is apparently the only pos…

Unless abortion is considered a crime by itself?
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