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US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

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301–310 of 1001 posts

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#301
post #263

Most goods in US directly or indirectly relies on importing. So practically, I think it just mean US introduced VAT.

Not quite the same.

An item sold for $1000 say would pay $100 at 10% VAT. The items in the supply chain all charge VAT and reclaim VAT they spent. I think usually this terminates at the import (maybe?)

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#302
post #263

Most goods in US directly or indirectly relies on importing. So practically, I think it just mean US introduced VAT.

Well, when you put it that way... it doesn't seem that bad at all.

Maybe the real innovation here is the political manouvering of coming up with a new, desperately-needed government revenue stream.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#303
post #87

I think a lot of people assume the economic consequences like these have not been understood by the WH. Although I don't like this administration I beg to differ: they know what's going to happen, and they expect the coming storm because they seek what follows. They want to repudiate foreign held debt, or devalue it, by revaluation of the USD and they will wear what they think of as a one time economic shock to get t…

They might be smart about it like you said, but they might also just be stupid. And the theory that they are smart about it is based on a whole bunch more assumptions...

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#304

The golden prize for America's enemies is to remove the US dollar as a global reserve currency. Since trade is conducted largely in USD, that means other governments must purchase USD to trade. This is the core of trade deficits. Foreign countries buy US dollars so they can trade with other people. That guarantees the deficit since they give us something in exchange for USD, which they do not then spend on goods we m…

> This is Russia's and China's liberation day

With the tariffs in Asia (Vietnam: 46%, Thailand: 36%, Cambodia: 49%) it feels like a good opportunity for China to increase their trade/influence in the region as well.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#305

The golden prize for America's enemies is to remove the US dollar as a global reserve currency. Since trade is conducted largely in USD, that means other governments must purchase USD to trade. This is the core of trade deficits. Foreign countries buy US dollars so they can trade with other people. That guarantees the deficit since they give us something in exchange for USD, which they do not then spend on goods we m…

> This is Russia's and China's liberation day.

There's no reason to believe that Russia will not continue to be a declining, stumbling, brain-drained backwater hawking a nuclear arsenal over its current borders, Belarus, and The People's Freest and Greatestmost Republic of Donetsk-Luhansk.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#306

US says there was an imbalance in trade, and that is true only if we look at goods. If we look at services, I think the picture changes. What if the EU and rest of the world starts adding taxes to financial and IT services provided by the US? What if Amazon cloud and Netflix start costing 20% more? And let's not forget US is printing dollars which are being used for worldwide trade and the rest of the world subsidies…

Interesting what happens to tech valuation. A large part depends on global reach, 'infinite' scaling and a winner takes all probability.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#307

This won't bring home manufacturing but let's say that it will... The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing. I saw a video recently explaining how sectors like the military, construction and the automotive industry each have 100K+ positions that they are unable to fill. A return to manufacturing adds to that shortage. Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in…

I don't know that I agree with this. The US is too large a market to ignore, and this is effectively raising the profit margin for local production. Foreign companies will either move some portion of manufacturing to the US (for the domestic market), or cede the market completely, and I don't know that they're prepared to do that (well, maybe Chinese ones are). Factories have a long lead time, so even if this is abol…

> If the people aren't there, wages will rise until they show up. Most labor shortages aren't an actual shortage of labor, unless you genuinely can't produce that skillset domestically, or your labor market is so tight that no one is unemployed; rather, they're a shortage of wages

I don't know about this in the US. Sure, we're not at full employment, but I don't know how factory jobs are going to change that. My impression is that there is already a deficit in labor willing to work hard for good pay (construction, trucking, etc.,) and tightening immigration policies will make this even worse.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#308
post #87

I think a lot of people assume the economic consequences like these have not been understood by the WH. Although I don't like this administration I beg to differ: they know what's going to happen, and they expect the coming storm because they seek what follows. They want to repudiate foreign held debt, or devalue it, by revaluation of the USD and they will wear what they think of as a one time economic shock to get t…

> the midterms will hit

The plan may be that there are no more elections, or that the only people who are allowed to vote are identified MAGA supporters. Does this seem impossible? Everything Trump has done would have been considered impossible only a couple of months ago.

What Trump reveals is the utter apathy of Americans. They're sheep in lions' clothing, not the other way around.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#309

The golden prize for America's enemies is to remove the US dollar as a global reserve currency. Since trade is conducted largely in USD, that means other governments must purchase USD to trade. This is the core of trade deficits. Foreign countries buy US dollars so they can trade with other people. That guarantees the deficit since they give us something in exchange for USD, which they do not then spend on goods we m…

> Foreign countries buy US dollars so they can trade with other people

Who are those other people and why do they want to be paid in USD so badly instead of their own currency in which they presumably pay their employees and taxes? I never understood that.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#310

The golden prize for America's enemies is to remove the US dollar as a global reserve currency. Since trade is conducted largely in USD, that means other governments must purchase USD to trade. This is the core of trade deficits. Foreign countries buy US dollars so they can trade with other people. That guarantees the deficit since they give us something in exchange for USD, which they do not then spend on goods we m…

> Since trade is conducted largely in USD, that means other governments must purchase USD to trade.

But then they sell it back. What you’re describing is not a trade deficit. To produce trade deficits they need to actually trade with the US. Buying forex does not do that.

> If trade stops occurring in US Dollar, which is a consequence of the stated goal of our current ruling regime, that would be the coup de grace on this country's hegemony. It is the definitive end to it, and the birth of Chinese hegemony.

Nobody will use Chinese currency because it doesn’t float and it’s subject to tight capital controls. Nobody in their right mind would switch to that from outside of China.

You can argue that China could become a hegemony anyway, but that is because everyone wants to trade with them, not because they want to use their currency in 3rd party transactions.

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