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Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

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Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#301

Post by DanielHB »

jrmg wrote: post #266
DanielHB wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm very, very bullish on EVs, they're going to take over the world rapidly but this graph isn't great support as you can't see the exponential rise very well and it's swamped by other data inluences. One thing people don't realize is that EVs are going to be SO MASSIVELY CHEAPER than ICE cars that we will see massive changes in behaviour and socioeconomic dynamics in society. I think we will see a day where a new…

EVs are going to be SO MASSIVELY CHEAPER than ICE cars Why?

Much simpler than combustion cars and far easier to mass produce. Once it becomes a disposable commodity like smartphones the maintenance supply-chain will be much simpler and cheaper (few issues will be worth fixing instead of just replacing a big chunk of the vehicle or just getting a new one).

Batteries are expensive, but are mostly automated manufacturing. Raw minerals for batteries will become mostly closed-loop in the long-term with recycling (like aluminum). And the prices is going down a lot even without recycling being significant yet.

I imagine you would be able to trade-in your current car and get a big discount for a new one.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#302

Post by bArray »

hnaccount_rng wrote: post #194
bArray wrote: post #166

I think that combustion engines will make a come back, and we're at a false peak. I believe that due to a poor economic outlook, we see more people purchasing from the used-car market than new vehicles. I personally have seen a recent boom in the UK for road-worthy vehicles under £5k. On the other hand, I have seen used EVs completely unsellable, to the point where forecourts refuse to accept them as part-exchange. I…

As the sibling comment says: Ability to resell EVs is a problem. But that's mostly because you can get a new car today (i.e. deliverable and everything) for the same price as an older EV and likely the new car is even better (larger battery, faster charging). That's unfortunate for first adopters and is a significant problem for adaption in lower-income circles (those typically buying second hand), but not a reason f…

> That's unfortunate for first adopters and is a significant problem for adaption in lower-income circles (those typically buying second hand), but not a reason for going back to gasoline cars.

I'm not advocating (here at least) for a move back to combustion vehicles, I'm just noting what I have seen. I would say that unless there is a serious used EV market and that the poorer people are able to afford an EV, there will forever be a resistance. You can push poor people out of the urban areas to rural locations with poor shared transport options, but they still need to commute to work.

> All that being said: I agree that "green agenda items" will decrease in popularity (or really: they weren't that popular to begin with). But EVs in particular are just straight up cheaper. If not by construction, then definitely by the air pollution reduction interest of the Chinese government. I'd be highly surprised if incentive reduction has more than a delaying effect, if even that

I think the reversal of most green policies is on the cards as governments struggle to balance the books with an incoming global recession.

EVs are cheaper to run once you tax fuel to a higher price, otherwise they are not. EVs cost about half as much to run, and in the UK the fuel duty is approximately 50%, some of which is put into subsidising green electricity production. EVs are definitely not cheaper to construct, maintain or recycle end-of-life.

The only thing I can think is that they have reduced emissions during the operating life-time of the vehicle, but I haven't seen the numbers to suggest if this includes the entire lifetime. Some quick numbers:

Apparently petrol/diesel vehicles require ~5.6 tonnes CO2 to build, whereas EVs ~8.8 tonnes. I see numbers assuming that combustion vehicles produce ~4.6 tonnes CO2 annually, but it assumes 22.2 miles per gallon (very low fuel economy) and 11,500 miles driven a year (a heavy commuter). I think the assumptions are bad. That considered, then there is the recycling/upcycling of the vehicles. I know that for combustion vehicles this process is extremely efficient, as literally every part is recycled, much reused in the used car market.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#303

Post by toss1 »

eftpotrm wrote: post #298
toss1 wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, except ICE fires are a lot easier to put out (possibly partly because of long experience developing tools & techniques vs for electric fires). Electric cars were also banned at most racetracks for years (not sure if that is still true).

I'm a software engineer not a firefighter, but my understanding is that it's significantly an experience thing. Lithium battery fires clearly aren't trivial to deal with and do burn hotter than petroleum fires, but they're also very much less frequent and firefighters are learning how to handle them. I'm not sure what the specific issue would be with race tracks. The average road course is very open and a very contro…

Yup, I think experience and new tools & techniques will have battery fires as controllable as gasoline fires relatively soon.

I'm pretty sure the racetrack issue was related to the garages. The pretty much standard rule I've seen at all racetracks I've been to is and absolute "NO FUELING IN THE GARAGE" as in if they even catch you with an open fuel can in the garage you are immediately banned from the premises. They're obviously trying to minimize the risk of one of their building burning down, especially since once a fire started in one team's bay, it would be likely to spread to adjacent bays. I expect they just consider electric fires to start in broader circumstances.

Also, I think it might be relaxing the rules some, as I just checked and at least SCCA is now working on rules for electric cars on road tracks, which presumably means some tracks are more open to it.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#304

Post by panstromek »

Ray20 wrote: post #296
panstromek wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I don't think many people realize this but we have like ~46 years of oil left in total. That's not very much. It will just keep getting more expensive. Even if we keep burning coal for electricity, we still have 140 years of that left, so it's just a matter of relatively short time until the optimum flips in favor of electric.

>I don't think many people realize this but we have like ~46 years of oil left in total. My parents remember reading those in 70's

I can't tell whether you're trying to make an argument with this comment or what's the reason for pointing that out.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#305

Post by e40 »

gnarcoregrizz wrote: post #106
e40 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. They are a scourge. My best friend’s son had facial reconstructive surgery due to a scooter crash and a coworker’s son broke his arm, quite a bad break.

Been there. It’s a hazard of biking in general. I love riding though. There are fatal car crashes all the time.

I know far more people who ride bikes and I literally know 1 person that fell and was injured. I think it's very clear scooters are far more dangerous than bikes.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#306

Post by e40 »

Toutouxc wrote: post #101
e40 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. They are a scourge. My best friend’s son had facial reconstructive surgery due to a scooter crash and a coworker’s son broke his arm, quite a bad break.

But.. it wasn't the scooter's fault, was it?

Yes, it was. They are quite unstable at the speeds they allow.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#307

Post by stuaxo »

ghaff wrote: post #240
pjmlp wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good public transport is the key part and I can tell that in most European cities, not the capitals that everyone visits when they say they have been on country XYZ only hanging on the city center without even venturing into the suburbs, that is quite far from where they were supposed to be.

A lot of people look at Europe through the lens of the tourist areas of large cities. As someone who has spent a lot of time in the UK countryside and smaller towns, there is absolutely not a good public transit system even if there might be a few buses during the day. Heck. I arrived by train from London to a town where I found the busses to the start of my walk were basically non-existent. Fortunately a taxi pulled…

Bus deregulation wrecked public transport for much of the smaller places in the UK.

One of the positive things labour has done is allowed local authorities more control over this, which should help - I can also imagine them being very bad at communicating this if it does.

Of course I'd prefer a bunch more investment too, more train lines and go ahead with many of the previously touted tram schemes.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#308

Post by bArray »

snowwrestler wrote: post #209
bArray wrote: post #166

I think that combustion engines will make a come back, and we're at a false peak. I believe that due to a poor economic outlook, we see more people purchasing from the used-car market than new vehicles. I personally have seen a recent boom in the UK for road-worthy vehicles under £5k. On the other hand, I have seen used EVs completely unsellable, to the point where forecourts refuse to accept them as part-exchange. I…

In the long run, society goes to 100% electric transportation due to global warming. Any analysis that treats this as a simple matter of consumer choice is going to miss the biggest driver of adoption. Maybe some alternate carbon-neutral fuel for combustion is possible, but all the ones we’ve tried so far have lost out to electric.

> In the long run, society goes to 100% electric transportation due to global warming. Any analysis that treats this as a simple matter of consumer choice is going to miss the biggest driver of adoption.

As @Ray20 pointed out, this is Western thinking. The only factor that will flip most poorer people is a direct economic incentive. Who cares about the weather when your children cannot eat.

> Maybe some alternate carbon-neutral fuel for combustion is possible, but all the ones we’ve tried so far have lost out to electric.

It was getting more efficient, but this stopped ever since all the governments got together and decided that by 2035 no more combustion vehicles would be sold. All incentives to produce more efficient combustion vehicles went out the window.

We are actually only a handful of inventions away from pretty low emissions combustion engines. There have already been significant inventions, such as the catalytic converter, DPF, fuel additives, turbos, intercoolers, direct water injection, etc.

I suspect we were only years from seeing KERS and MGU-H during acceleration events. I think it is also quite likely there would have been more effort to push for hybrid vehicles where only small batteries are used, again for acceleration events. Improvements in manufacturing processes would allow for high tolerances, increasing internal pressures and combustion efficiency.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#309

Post by amrocha »

ghaff wrote: post #297
amrocha wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve personally never felt like I needed a car in fukuoka, osaka, or kyoto. What places did you have a bad experience at?

Not really a bad experience but I was able to walk as a tourist to where I wanted to go because the areas were pretty centrally located. The one time I took a bus to somewhere--don't remember location--it wasn't that convenient.

Kyoto has a lot of buses, so maybe that’s where it was. I’ve found that they’re usually on time and not too crowded, but maybe you had a different experience.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#310

Post by xboxnolifes »

panstromek wrote: post #304
Ray20 wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I don't think many people realize this but we have like ~46 years of oil left in total. My parents remember reading those in 70's

I can't tell whether you're trying to make an argument with this comment or what's the reason for pointing that out.

The point is peak oil as a concept has existed for a long time, and we have extended way past its deadline before. It relies on not having technological advancement for accessing more oil.
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