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Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

vincentschmalbach.com

301–310 of 431 posts

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Also everyone: FAANG employees are better than everyone else! Rather: FAANG employees are pushed into startups by VCs.

How so? They get paraded around as tokens of competence by VCs?

I've always found it amusing that FAANG pedigree is considered a plus for startup founders when the skill set is not only different but sometimes detrimental.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#303
Startups have been on average a shit deal for a long time. I liken it to writing a book - best not to do it unless there is a book inside of you and you'll die if you don't get it out.

I worked in Big Tech before doing consulting at some startups and it appeared to me that startups were often these cultish tribes where the willingness to accept a small percentage of equity was a strong signal that the employee really did believe the future of the company. They don't really want people around with realistic expectations as it'll hurt moral and the illusion that they have to keep going as they raise for subsequent rounds.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#304

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

>Dodgy accounting & staff retention meant that actually you don't get fuckyou money. What is fuckyou money at this point? Take the Mega Millions lottery jackpot, it's default is $20 million nominal. You get cash payout instead of annuity, now it's about $10 million. Maybe you live in a state without income tax (I do), but the feds get their cut, now it's $5 millionish. You look for a nicer house (been living in an ap…

My definition is very different. It is about my ability to have control over my life in the areas that matter most to me. I value my time and personal development above material wealth (to a point). I don't need a giant house. I don't need regular fancy vacations or to own a car. I personally have been not working and living comfortably on much much less than 5mm in a high cost of living city for over five years. I do have to make many tradeoffs but I am happier than working a soul sucking job. It's not a path for everyone.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#305
For me, I think one of the biggest issue is how incredibly boring the startup landscape has become. Who here is seriously passionate about doing SaaS #9001 which will contain a chatgpt wrapper and yet another series of buzzword to attract VC funding instead of actual users?

There's a ton of big, real problems with our world at the moment, and I don't see the startup scene attacking any of those.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#306

I believe the main change is just that Hacker News went from being a very specific subset of the population to becoming much more mainstream. Ten years ago it was, at least in my opinion, mostly early adopters of internet technology and in general people who had enough funds that they could fail without being devastated. Nowadays, in addition to the traditional VC route, there's also the indie hackers movement. Those…

> Nowadays, in addition to the traditional VC route, there's also the indie hackers movement. Those founders typically aren't friends with old money, so they will bring a different perspective on financial risks.

When I first started hanging around HN (around 2011 or so), the general vibe seemed much more like indie-hacker types to me, lots of anger at VCs and the hockey stick growth required.

Honestly though, the following decade was a massive tech bull market which presumably pulled lots of HN denizens in (including me). Maybe we're getting back to that a little bit with tech layoffs and potential opportunities in other industries.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#307
post #81
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's assuming "Winning" means "More money", but that's not everyone's goal in life. There is plenty of space for smaller companies that earn enough profits to let every employee live a good life, without chasing unicorns.

This is called a "lifestyle business", which some people get very annoyed about. And as mentioned you can't get VC for this model.

Actually, what I was referring to is just called "company" or "business", or at least used to be called that.

I understood "lifestyle business" to be a company that tries to be adoptable to the lifestyle of the founder/owner, but maybe I understood it wrong or it changed.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#308
post #278
post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Generally this is not true - the "risk" taken by these people is very small, because of how wealthy they or their parents are. If I had $1M and lost it, I would be devastated. If I had $1B and lost $1M, it would be a rounding error. I don't have any money, so how do I even get to $1M? And neither does my parents.

We're not talking about that kind of risk. It's just a synonym for the amount somebody is going to lose if the company fails, regardless of what the amount means to them personally. VC invests $1M in a startup, they are risking $1M. You just work at a company, get paid every month, and don't buy any stock, you are risking $0. That's all. If the company does well and the VC makes $5M back, it probably won't mean much…

The risk of investing time in a startup is in the lost opportunities (ie. opportunity cost). It can be dollarized with discounted cash flow as an approximation. Could you earn more at a large company than at a startup? What are your options? Do you even have better options? How high and how likely must the "lottery ticket payout" be to break even? And don't forget the time value of money: How much could you gain by investing the excess money during those years?

Time is the most precious resource we have. It's per-se underrated whenever it's dollarized. Unfortunately, most don't have a choice than to sell their time for money. Thus, it's even more important to spend time wisely.

Thinking, you don't risk anything because you don't spend money on a startup is wishful thinking. Or more likely: It's just a good story VCs and founders like to tell, because it's in their interest.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#309

> What's changed? Largely, the make up of the audience in HN. I sincerely doubt that the hard core of people doing startups, thinking of doing a startup, or just very interested in the topic has gone away or changed attitude very much. But the profile of HN has grown. It's a miracle that it's still an interesting and curious group, but from comments I'd be astounded if there were not a far greater proportion of peopl…

Everyone is so negative, cynical, and bitter on HN now, it's really sad to me. I went through YC in 2012 and I feel like the community here is unrecognizable, the quality of discourse is so low it feels hard to participate.

The promise of technology was different. The stories of engineers at FB making millions in options were still fresh in people's minds. The untapped potential of mobile and SAAS and a dozen other things.

Tech lost its glitter. It is now just another arm of rentier capitalism, not too dissimilar from banks and finance.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#310

> What's changed? Largely, the make up of the audience in HN. I sincerely doubt that the hard core of people doing startups, thinking of doing a startup, or just very interested in the topic has gone away or changed attitude very much. But the profile of HN has grown. It's a miracle that it's still an interesting and curious group, but from comments I'd be astounded if there were not a far greater proportion of peopl…

Everyone is so negative, cynical, and bitter on HN now, it's really sad to me. I went through YC in 2012 and I feel like the community here is unrecognizable, the quality of discourse is so low it feels hard to participate.

> Everyone is so negative, cynical, and bitter on HN now

Our profession got hollowed out over the years. Of course the vibes at the bar next to the plant will be down.

> it's really sad to me

There's a thing I've seen on HN a few times over the years, where people expect HN to be like a secret oasis of fun away from the realities of the professional pursuits that brought us together in the first place. Why is that?

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