I'm incredibly hopeful that NYC congestion pricing pays off in a big way - and that we start to see it in other cities across America. I really, really want congestion pricing in downtown SF. During rush hour, cars block the box and slow down busses, with cascading effects.
$9 per day isn't going to make anybody change their route. A round trip on the subway costs $5.80. IMHO, they would need to push higher than $50 to get drivers to blink.
So you need pricing which will make a few people reconsider driving, who were on the edge of using public transit anyway.