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Bitcoin is over $100k

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Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#301

Post by kamaal »

deanmoriarty wrote: post #8

I couldn’t care less about crypto, but just for fun I bought 1 BTC in 2016. Still own it, and likely will never sell, but boy I wish I bought a lot more instead of my index funds, skipping one monthly contribution in VTI back then would have mostly set me up for life instead of just having a nice but inconsequential $100k bonus in my portfolio :-) Congrats to the people who held through thick and thin, I speculate (m…

>>Congrats to the people who held through thick and thin, I speculate (my own opinion) that we will likely not see 80% drawdowns anymore due to all the institutional money that flew in, just “standard” 40-50% dips. Fantastic to witness, an asset class out of thin air.

There was some person who invested $30 everyday in BTC since 2017, and has $1 million right now.

The tweet had gone viral on Twitter.

BTC bull/bear cycles have taught a lot of people many things about regular investing.

Like what this person did is called DCA(Dollar Cost Averaging).

>>>>Cheers to the next 10X in 8 years, $1M in 2032!

Seems like showing up everyday is all there is to success. Mostly. Every once in a while, someone makes it big due to luck/help. But showing up everything is all.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#302

Post by robjan »

cesarb wrote: post #300
robjan wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A transaction is zero sum, the market is net positive. For the market to be zero sum, the market cap would have to be constant. If I buy something from someone for $1 then sell it to you for $2, I gained a dollar and you own a share that's worth $2.

> If I buy something from someone for $1 then sell it to you for $2, I gained a dollar and you own a share that's worth $2. It's easy to see that this is nonsense: I could buy a widget from someone for $1, then turn around and sell it to my brother for $10000, does that really mean the widget is now magically worth $10000, and we doubled our collective holdings? No, what actually happened is that we together still ha…

Once again, the trade is within the context of a market and the market values the "widget", Apple Stock, Oz of gold or whatever as whatever people are willing to pay for it. That's how markets work. Individual Opinions are largely irrelevant.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#303

Post by ManuelKiessling »

josu wrote: post #45
paxys wrote: post #10

Important to remember that while income and wealth inequality is at record highs, the trillions of dollars injected into the economy are still floating around among the top. People are getting more and more creative with investments (see luxury watches, sneakers, trading cards, collectibles, meme stocks all seeing a significant bump in value in recent years). Bitcoin's price is simply another symptom of this. What I…

>Bitcoin's price is simply another symptom of this. Bitcoin is not the symptom, Bitcoin is the answer. People are not longing Bitcoin, people are exiting the dollar, the euro, the yuan...

If people don't care about the dollar, then why is "Bitcoin is over $100k" a headline?

You know why it is a headline?

Because the $ symbol in the headline is what people ACTUALLY care about. You don't even need to ask people: simply watch what people do, and you will learn what they care about.

And what they do is they buy nice things, like Lamborghinis, yachts, homes — and they do so using US dollars.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#304

Post by talldayo »

ArtTimeInvestor wrote: post #274
nicholasbraker wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole "BTC is the future of money" ship has sailed a long time.

I wouldn't say so. As the financial system is set up right now, Bitcoin has a lot of potential to reduce friction. For cross-country payments as well as for buying coffee: Speed, fees, finality. But the lightning network will have to mature first. We will see if the global financial system evolves faster than the Bitcoin ecosystem. I would expect Bitcoin's ecosystem to evolve faster.

The fact that Bitcoin's blockchain is unusable without unofficial, unreliable and slow L2 chains is kinda evidence that it doesn't have much potential left. If you're a serious country considering using Bitcoin, why even use Lightning at all when you could use a fundamentally better-designed currency? Why invest in Bitcoin if it's already breaking?

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#305

Post by josu »

ManuelKiessling wrote: post #303
josu wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Bitcoin's price is simply another symptom of this. Bitcoin is not the symptom, Bitcoin is the answer. People are not longing Bitcoin, people are exiting the dollar, the euro, the yuan...

If people don't care about the dollar, then why is "Bitcoin is over $100k" a headline? You know why it is a headline? Because the $ symbol in the headline is what people ACTUALLY care about. You don't even need to ask people: simply watch what people do, and you will learn what they care about. And what they do is they buy nice things, like Lamborghinis, yachts, homes — and they do so using US dollars.

What about the gold? We use dollars to measure that too.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#306

Post by dlubarov »

Empact wrote: post #209
dlubarov wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, not just predictable but hard capped at 21M, about 19.8M (or ~94%) of which have already been mined. So in some sense, inflation tax can't exceed ~6% over all time. (I don't think it's a sustainable model, as security essentially decays over time, unless fees become extremely high which doesn't seem like a great outcome either. But that's another matter...)

There are a few answers to the long-term security budget: 1) We could maintain fees through compression, that is, by making each on-chain transaction representative of many off-chain transactions. This is beginning to happen with the lightning network, and other technologies are in the works to advance this concept. 2) Mining will become more integrated with other industrial and residential processes, which will redu…

(2) is interesting, but I'm not sure if resistance heaters will remain common in the long term, as heat pumps become more widely available?

Also this seems like a sort of free-electricity scenario (mining with electricity that was going to be used anyway), but I'm not sure free electricity would reduce mining costs? Wouldn't hardness adjust so that it then becomes all about hardware CapEx (assuming amortized CapEx remains significant)?

I figure mining costs are around 1% of the market cap, and can't go that much lower without serious security risks. So the ecosystem needs to fund that in some way, whether it's through inflation, fees, or donations.

With fees, I also worry they'll be too unpredictable. Like there might be enough demand to justify $20B/year in fees, but it's a function of supply as well, and if scaling solutions like Lightning Network work "too well" (with people rarely needing to settle on-chain) we might end up with way lower fees.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#307

Post by tim333 »

lifty wrote: post #267
huijzer wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> inconsequential $100k bonus in my portfolio It seems we are truly ducking poor here in the EU. My parents have been running a farm for 40 years in the Netherlands and they’re doing well financially. Still, $100k is not inconsequential for them!

The world is split into two kids of people: the ones that have managed to take advantage of the massive financialization of the world, and the ones who haven’t.

The world was even more divided in the past. When I went to China in 1983 the GDP per capita per year was $285. Even adjusted for inflation they were poor. No more really. Trade and the internet have leveled things up.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#308

Post by tim333 »

paxys wrote: post #135
aryan14 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Polymarket, Bitrefill, Stake

2 out of the 3 companies you listed have nothing to do with crypto.

Polymarket and Stake use crypto on the backend to facilitate the gambling.

It's actually quite functional for that speaking as someone who's used Polymarket.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#309

Post by ArtTimeInvestor »

talldayo wrote: post #304
ArtTimeInvestor wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't say so. As the financial system is set up right now, Bitcoin has a lot of potential to reduce friction. For cross-country payments as well as for buying coffee: Speed, fees, finality. But the lightning network will have to mature first. We will see if the global financial system evolves faster than the Bitcoin ecosystem. I would expect Bitcoin's ecosystem to evolve faster.

The fact that Bitcoin's blockchain is unusable without unofficial, unreliable and slow L2 chains is kinda evidence that it doesn't have much potential left. If you're a serious country considering using Bitcoin, why even use Lightning at all when you could use a fundamentally better-designed currency? Why invest in Bitcoin if it's already breaking?

It is only unusable for small transfers. Considering it is at only 10% of the Gold market cap - which is even more unusable for small transfers - I think it would even have a lot of potential left without L2s.

As for Lightning being unreliable and slow - I don't see a technical reason for it to stay this way.

What do you consider a "better-designed currency"?

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#310

Post by JohnTHaller »

huijzer wrote: post #216
deanmoriarty wrote: post #8

I couldn’t care less about crypto, but just for fun I bought 1 BTC in 2016. Still own it, and likely will never sell, but boy I wish I bought a lot more instead of my index funds, skipping one monthly contribution in VTI back then would have mostly set me up for life instead of just having a nice but inconsequential $100k bonus in my portfolio :-) Congrats to the people who held through thick and thin, I speculate (m…

> inconsequential $100k bonus in my portfolio It seems we are truly ducking poor here in the EU. My parents have been running a farm for 40 years in the Netherlands and they’re doing well financially. Still, $100k is not inconsequential for them!

Nearly half of folks in the US have no way of paying an unexpected $1,000 expense. $100,000 isn't inconsequential to the majority of the world.
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