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Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

cnn.com

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Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#301

Post by gorbachev »

exceptione wrote: post #104
VyseofArcadia wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have read reams of rhetoric regarding relations with Russia rehashed as "don't poke the bear". No one ever seems to want to discuss what to do about the bear going around poking everyone else.

The bear metaphore is indeed nonsense. Russia is not a bear, you are dealing with a bunch of state level criminals. The state of Russia is essentially better understood as a criminal gang masquerading as a country. Those stealing, money laundering, killing, trafficking an warring circles of oligarchs are heavily rooted in Intelligence Services, inside and abroad. Some of those oligarchs even have private militaries.…

The "academic" term for Russia's style of governing is a kleptocracy.

Your description is 100% accurate.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#302

Post by qingcharles »

Etheryte wrote: post #242
staplung wrote: post #63

It's worth mentioning that cable breakages happen quite often; globally about 200 times per year [1] and the article itself mentions that just last year, two other cables and a gas pipeline were taken out by an anchor. The Gulf of Finland is evidently quite shallow. From what I understand, cable repair ships are likely to use ROVs for parts of repair jobs but only when the water is shallow so hopefully they can figur…

This is a misleading framing. The two cables last year were not taken out by an anchor as an accident, it was literally a ship putting down its anchor just before the cable and then dragging it over the cable. In other words, sabotage. There's no point in trying to color any of this with rose tinted glasses when it's clear who's done it and why.

They just released a statement saying it is sad that they have to be suspicious that it is, perhaps, sabotage:

https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/-/2685132

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#303

Post by maxglute »

dragonwriter wrote: post #249
maxglute wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

High Seas "international water" start at after 200 nautical mile EEZ. There's a few explicit articles dealing with malicious submarine cable damage. But IIRC the TLDR is it has to do with indemnities and putting a vessel/person up for prosecution after the fact. And it doesn't apply if cable damaged while trying to prevent injury, which RU can always claim. More broadly I think you're correct on paper... RU damaging…

NATO kinetically trying to prevent Russia from damaging subsea infrastructure WITH a formal UN policing mission is also an act of war, its just more clearly not an act of aggression . Of course, that would also be true of NATO doing so as part of a broader collective defense operation reported to the Security Council, directed against Russia and explicitly aimed at rolling back the Russian (UNGA-condemned) aggression…

Fair distinction.

International law can be selectively applied for different party according to different scenarios (relative to different geopolitical power). NATO triggering art5 (self defense) won't make it valid / feasible to trigger at parallel UN art51. RU using UN art51 to target UKR a soveign territory, is also going to be different than NATO / or NATO country using art51 to do whatever they want on non-soverign / international high seas. All of which is to say while international law doesn't matter much to the motivated, not everyone is powerful enough to normalized/destablize with impunity. NATO might, but not without RU security council (trumps UNGA) approval, of course NATO can supercede from UN Charter framework which IIRC that NATO explicitly states they operate within. But then we have NATO going independant of UN, which goes back barrels of worms.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#304

Post by shkurski_ »

matthewdgreen wrote: post #295

This would be an excellent time for Germany to announce that it is tripling munitions production, and that they’re going to do whatever they have to do to protect the territorial integrity of Europe. But they won’t.

As risky as it may sound, they will triple the depth of concerns.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#305

Post by throw310822 »

tmnvix wrote: post #293
rdtsc wrote: post #82

> "it’s obvious this wasn’t an accidental anchor drop.” If it's "he who shall not be named", gotta admit, that's a clever strategy: ramp up sabotage and see how NATO/EU will feel about their "red lines", and how well does that article 5 really work in practice. Is it worth more than the paper it's printed on? Let's find out! People have been laughing at the West crossing multiple Russian "red lines" and the Russians…

Ask yourself, when was the last time a nation officially declared war? It doesn't happen anymore for legal reasons. NATO will 100% not be the first to declare war despite even very serious provocations. Maybe they'll take a leaf out of Russia or Israel's book and declare a 'special' or 'limited' operation though...

> Maybe they'll take a leaf out of Russia or Israel's book

As you yourself just pointed out a few lines line above this, there's no need to take a leaf out of anybody else's book: all the US' and NATO wars of the past decades have been presented as "special operations": e.g. the war against Serbia, the war against Iraq, the war against Afghanistan, etc.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#306

Post by dgfitz »

gorbachev wrote: post #299
Etheryte wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a misleading framing. The two cables last year were not taken out by an anchor as an accident, it was literally a ship putting down its anchor just before the cable and then dragging it over the cable. In other words, sabotage. There's no point in trying to color any of this with rose tinted glasses when it's clear who's done it and why.

[flagged]

When “coincidences” like this percolate up to the general public, I think it is in fact noteworthy.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#307

Post by burkaman »

gorbachev wrote: post #299
Etheryte wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a misleading framing. The two cables last year were not taken out by an anchor as an accident, it was literally a ship putting down its anchor just before the cable and then dragging it over the cable. In other words, sabotage. There's no point in trying to color any of this with rose tinted glasses when it's clear who's done it and why.

[flagged]

There is strong circumstantial evidence (https://www.politico.eu/article/balticconnector-damage-likel...) and an open Estonian investigation. None of us know whether or not there is direct evidence that has not been made public.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#308

Post by usr1106 »

deliciousturkey wrote: post #54
mg wrote: post #50

Hetzner seems unaffected? ping hel1-speed.hetzner.com Gives me 52ms from Germany which should be about normal?

It should be around 25 ms in normal conditions. That's what I got when pinging Hetzner in Germany, from Finland, when the cable was still in use and when using a connection that routes through the cable.

I am don't use Hetzner, but I use ssh between Finland and Germany every day. As a matter of fact even back and forth because of tunneling. After reading the news this morning (Hetzner incident is date 3:30 UTC) I was surpised that I had not noted any lag. It remained very reponsive all day.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#310

Post by favorited »

paganel wrote: post #283
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Their shadow oil fleet is operated by third parties and shell companies Would be a shame if they started having engine troubles in the middle of the ocean.

[flagged]

That might carry more weight if Russia hadn't started an expansionist war to reclaim former imperial territory.
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