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Can solar costs keep shrinking?

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Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#301

Post by kragen »

caymanjim wrote: post #296
kragen wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is awesome! i do have one quibble, though, and it's a big one. in the last two years, prices on mainstream solar panels (monocrystalline with warranty) have fallen from €0.25 per peak watt to €0.12 per peak watt; low-cost panels have fallen from €0.17 per peak watt to €0.07 per peak watt.† technically that is 'fallen by 25% or more' because it's fallen by almost 60%. 2400 watts of solar should cost you 290 us do…

400W solar panels cost $200-250. So 2400W will cost me roughly $1800. There are discounts if you can buy in bulk, but I don't have room for more than 6-8 panels at most. Like all things, the raw material cost is trivial. There are the tariffs you mention (I just skimmed your link, and don't speak German), but there's also economy of scale, packaging, logistics, etc. I'm sure I could get 400W panels for as little as $…

while it's true that there's a retail markup, that markup is not close to a factor of 4. it's about 30%. the €0.12 per peak watt cost i mentioned for mainstream solar panels is not at the factory; that's a wholesale price in european markets, which are halfway around the world from the factory. if you went to the factory, you could probably get them for €0.10 per peak watt, about 45 dollars each for your 400-watt panels. (unless you don't look chinese, in which case trying to go to the factory might get you arrested, and you'd definitely have to buy more than 6–8)

the longer comment of mine i linked explains in more detail how you're getting swindled. in english!

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#302

Post by njarboe »

pjc50 wrote: post #222
kingkongjaffa wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I intend to buy undeveloped land far from civilization I'm always intrigued by this notion, I know plenty of Americans have this kind of plan, but it's never quite as remote as they think, because, y'know you're still in America somewhere. Unless you're thinking of somewhere in northern Canada. I'd love to know where is considered 'far from civilization' on the continental US.

Far from "civilization", but still surrounded by lawfulness so you don't have to deal with warlords taking your solar panels.

I would guess he will still be paying at least property taxes.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#303

Post by kragen »

tuatoru wrote: post #285
kragen wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that is already the case; solar panels have been cheaper than window glass per square meter for years now. that's why the article says: > Is there a floor for these costs? > > Solar manufacturers are investing hundreds of billions in expanded capacity in an all out war for market share against a background of panel price drops of 15-25% per year. There is an extreme economic forcing function towards rapid improvement…

Perovskite films on microgrooved plastic film, offset printed roll to roll and rolled out mounted vertically like windbreak netting in orchards. For example: https://eyouagro.com/blog/citrus-fruits-wind-protection-nett... Reduces land costs because the land is already being used for crops of one sort or another. Agrivoltaics ftw.

that's fantastic! yeah, you don't want to shade your wheat and corn with solar panels, but oranges and lettuce will benefit from it

it's going to be pretty hard to dethrone silicon after the amount of supply-chain and process optimization that's gone into lowering its costs, but in some sense things like what you're describing seem to make it inevitable at some point

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#304

Post by pfdietz »

BatFastard wrote: post #295
pfdietz wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, the emittance of the panels at thermal wavelengths is important. What you want is a panel that converts wavelengths shorter than the bandgap cutoff at high efficiency, reflects near and mid IR at longer wavelengths, but has high emissivity in the far IR at wavelengths where the atmosphere isn't too opaque.

Could you convert electricity into a infrared laser and beam the energy into space?

A laser beam carries no entropy, so I don't see the point of this.

Using a laser beam to dissipate heat is one of those classic hard science fiction bloopers. David Brin is one guilty party (in "Sundiver").

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#305

Post by 93po »

sitkack wrote: post #115

Yes The pallet price of solar panels in the US is below 30 cents a watt. https://a1solarstore.com/wholesale-solar-panels.html And from alibaba, it is below 15 cents a watt. https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Longi-solar-Hi-MO-X6-... With full systems below $1/watt. https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Moregosolar-hybrid-so...

It's super annoying to me to be paying $250 a month for a 1 bedroom apartment in Texas for electricity when $2200 of panels, which would be 8000 watts, would be more than enough for my needs during the day (as long as I didn't run the dryer at the same time as the AC, and also accounting for a 400W panel not usually making full power). Obviously other expensive hardware is needed too, but still.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#306

Post by caymanjim »

lanstin wrote: post #294
caymanjim wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd love to know where is considered 'far from civilization' on the continental US. There are many interpretations and levels of remoteness. In my case, I want to be away from the sights and sounds and crowds of anything that would be considered urban or suburban. My prime criteria is that I don't want to see another person unless I choose to. I don't want to see a road with cars on it, I don't want to see another…

I find this fascinating. It really does take a variety of people to make up a culture. My ideal living situation includes being able to see someone I know every time I walk out side my home, being able to walk to a bagel shop, a grocery store, a post office, a train station, and ideally a library and bike shop and parks. It would be boring if we were all like me and clumped together.

I've lived like that. I lived in the Mission in San Francisco with four of my closest friends (all from NJ) within walking distance. It was great being able to meet up for lunch or drinks or go out clubbing, it was always a pleasant surprise to run into them randomly on the street or in a park.

I lived in midtown Manhattan and I loved being able to go out at 3am in the middle of the winter and find a fresh produce stand on the corner outside my apartment, get falafel wraps and Ethiopian and Thai and sushi and all the other great food during my lunch break, and have museums and concerts and Broadway shows within walking distance.

I lived in the Cayman Islands and had a roommate, could walk to the beach and to my favorite bars, my house was the primary hangout spot for all my friends. I was socializing daily there, and it was a small community where I knew just about everyone everywhere I went.

I'm old now. I don't drink anymore. I have no interest in parties. Even when I live in or near a city, I don't take advantage of much of anything it has to offer. I'm sick of the noise and filth and crowds, the crime and homelessness, the lack of privacy that comes with urban living. All my friends are older, have kids, live in the suburbs and are scattered all over the country. The eight months of the year that I'm not on the road in my RV, I'm living in a cookie-cutter suburban house and have no local friends at all. I exchange pleasantries with the neighbors.

My entire social life is online now, and when I can, I'm traveling. I want maximum peace and quiet. I'll go visit friends and family every couple months if I want to socialize. If/when I do settle down at my far-from-civilization objective, I may very well start feeling lonely and seek out social clubs or social hobbies. But I'll be glad to have my seclusion to return to.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#307

Post by WillAdams »

kingkongjaffa wrote: post #209
caymanjim wrote: post #204

I spend four months of the year traveling in an RV. Two years ago, I budgeted over $6000 for my desired solar setup (at least 1200Ah of battery, at least 2400W of solar, plus various controllers and other components). It was expensive enough for me to hold off, and more importantly, I didn't have the space on my current RV for the solar panels. In just the two years since then, prices on batteries and panels have dro…

> I intend to buy undeveloped land far from civilization I'm always intrigued by this notion, I know plenty of Americans have this kind of plan, but it's never quite as remote as they think, because, y'know you're still in America somewhere. Unless you're thinking of somewhere in northern Canada. I'd love to know where is considered 'far from civilization' on the continental US.

Yeah, it's kind of sad how pervasive roads/trails are:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42104894

With more than 14,000 of them, it's not possible to be more than 115 or so miles from one:

https://www.rd.com/article/farthest-away-from-mcdonalds/

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#308

Post by njarboe »

kragen wrote: post #255
Retric wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dropping energy costs lowers costs in every sector but rarely by that much. > aluminum production Dropping energy costs an by 75% only drops smelting prices by about 30% and finished goods by even less.

there's usually a long lag between a drop in the price of an input and the eventual impact on the price of the outputs, because part of the effect is mediated by the adoption of innovations that use more of the newly-cheaper inputs and less of the still-expensive inputs to take one example, the last time we got access to a major new source of energy was something like watt's steam-engine in 01776. one of the effects…

We started to access nuclear power as a new source, but then stopped for quite a while. It looks like things are starting up again. We'll see.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#309

Post by _yb2s »

grecy wrote: post #250
kingkongjaffa wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I intend to buy undeveloped land far from civilization I'm always intrigued by this notion, I know plenty of Americans have this kind of plan, but it's never quite as remote as they think, because, y'know you're still in America somewhere. Unless you're thinking of somewhere in northern Canada. I'd love to know where is considered 'far from civilization' on the continental US.

Exactly right. It's mathematically impossible to get more than 116 miles from a McDonalds in the lower 48 - and that's if you take a helicopter! https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/mcfarthest-spot-skb

But there are many places where that would be two solid days of offroad driving, without seeing another person in the process.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#310

Post by kragen »

njarboe wrote: post #308
kragen wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there's usually a long lag between a drop in the price of an input and the eventual impact on the price of the outputs, because part of the effect is mediated by the adoption of innovations that use more of the newly-cheaper inputs and less of the still-expensive inputs to take one example, the last time we got access to a major new source of energy was something like watt's steam-engine in 01776. one of the effects…

We started to access nuclear power as a new source, but then stopped for quite a while. It looks like things are starting up again. We'll see.

the issue with nuclear power is that the humans don't yet have the technology to exploit it economically; at their current primitive level it's uncompetitive with other sources of energy. like printing 1000 years ago or heron's aeolipile
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