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EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

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Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#301

Post by tristan957 »

nsteel wrote: post #276
londons_explore wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nearly all chip making machines are computer controlled. The operators could easily operate them remotely from Taiwan. Data centers already work that way - the economic value of the physical building is quite small because all the actual moneymaking can be done by an office full of software engineers in san Fransisco.

TSMC have delayed opening their US fab because apparently local talent was lacking, I think that suggests it cannot be done remotely. > Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) was supposed to have its first Arizona chip factory operational by late 2024 but now has confirmed significant delays. Primarily due to a shortage of technical workers with critical expertise in the US, TSMC projects to finish constru…

Sounds like we're likely to see TSMC have a large hand in determining course work in academia. Thanks for bringing this up.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#302

Post by roenxi »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #248
roenxi wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People say stuff like that all the time, then the most free market economy does well in the long term. Culture is important, but mainly as far as it permits people to freely help themselves prosper. The West is made up of countries that often have 40%+ of their economy made up by government spending, ie, spending that wouldn't happen under a free market. That is far more a problem as far as raw economic outcomes than…

> The West is made up of countries that often have 40%+ of their economy made up by government spending, ie, spending that wouldn't happen under a free market. How about Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Chile? What what is the "correct" percent to spend? And, what non-microstate countries do you consider "free market"? By the time you include: military, education, health, and infrastructure, it is very hard to be less than…

> What what is the "correct" percent to spend?

Quite an interesting question - theories range from 0% to 100% and everywhere in between. Empirical evidence seems to be that >60% causes a collapse of some sort [3] since nobody serious is doing that. And probably a floor of 20% since Singapore operates at 15% but doesn't really try to field a military and is a micronation. Anywhere at 40%+ seems to have problems with industrial production and innovation. I'd suggest there is a sweet spot at 20-30% spending on uneconomic projects, although obviously if that number can be reduced then more spending on uneconomic things means more stuff for everyone.

If we look at the countries you suggest, we see 44% (Japan), 27% (South Korea), 16% (Taiwan), 26% (Chile). We see that GDP per capita improvement is worst in Japan [1, 2]. There is a bit of a link between high growth and low government spending. Of course, if a country is growing quickly and the government isn't spending much then government expenditure will appear low so we can't be certain it is causal - but we would suspect that fast growth isn't led by government spending.

My personal theory is we see economies grow, then people kill the growth and coast. The high-taxing economies are lovely places to live for a while, but are getting crushed industrially and have generally managed to get themselves into an energy crisis which is starting to have an impact on living standards. Coasting is a bad long term plan.

Until someone comes up with a number, we should at least experiment with zones of as close to 0% taxation and spending as can be managed without compromising the consensus essential services. That is the sort of thing China looked to be doing in Shenzhen and it worked wonders.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_governmen...

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?...

[2] https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/taiwan/gdp-per-capita

[3] My guess is if we look at return on capital that is around the point where depreciation starts to overtake investment. And the symptoms of wastefulness go from sluggish--or-arrested-growth to now-obviously-shrinking-rapidly.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#303

Post by dukeyukey »

ponector wrote: post #293
dukeyukey wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's true. America's home ownership hovers around 65% - in Norway it's 80%; Swedeon 65%; Denmark 59%; Iceland 73%. If anything, a higher percentage of Nordic citizens own houses than Americans.

Someone can live with parents and in statistics they will go into "home owners" bucket. Anyway I'm talking about possibility to buy with current salary and current price. If you like statistics - search for house affordability index.

> Someone can live with parents and in statistics they will go into "home owners" bucket

Funnily enough Nordic populations tend to leave home before Americans, so the American figure is even worse than they look.

Don't just tell people to look up figures - cite them here please, and why they should overrule the figures saying as many or more Nordic people own their homes than Americans.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#304

Post by dukeyukey »

throw_pm23 wrote: post #299
dukeyukey wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depending on the metric, including Israel wouldn't even double the number compared to London, let alone the whole UK, _let alone_ all of Europe.

But I wrote "successful startups"...

Define "successful startups" and we can get some figures going.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#305

Post by melagonster »

corimaith wrote: post #243
melagonster wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

and don't forget defeating western world is a common dream of all Chinese people. they are fighting for this prospect until it comes true. this is helpful for encouraging people.

Pretty sure the average guy in China has more pressing issues than thinking about "defeating" some abstract concept thousands of miles away.

Normal nationalist propaganda can work well.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#306

Post by NalNezumi »

newaccount74 wrote: post #214
NalNezumi wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another supportive argument (especially for Europe, maybe not US) is that those knowledge workers have spent a considerable time, money, and effort to acquire that talent/skill-set, and unlike your own citizen your country spent *zero* euro paying for that . Most European countries have heavy tax but very protective social services, including free education and universal healthcare, which only works because there's a…

> there's an expectation that when you come of age, you'll support the same system I think this is the wrong way to look at it. You are looking at it from an individual perspective. I think it's better to look at it from the perspective of the society as a whole. Free education isn't a gift to an individual that they need to pay back. Free education is an investment into society. Society as a whole benefits from the…

I'm not looking from an individual perspective, but a balance-sheet perspective.

It's all lovey-dovey to see Free education as an investment and all, but at the end of the day, it's the accountant that will scratch his head looking at the red number on the balance sheet.

I share your idealism that education is more than just economics/investment and you shouldn't think how much you paid vs how much you receive, but when push comes to shove, and the accountant is knocking on your door in panic because the number have been red for decades, you have to face the reality and make (hopefully rational) hard decisions. And that's the part I'm talking about.

You can put your head in the sand and decades down the line to create a crisis like that of Greece, or you can see that to keep this system, you need to be smart and see things for what it is, and adapt the rules around it (such as incentivizing individuals, including from abroad, that is a net-contributor to want to come) while not losing the ideal.

But everyone having your ideal is fine by me. I'm the guy that got a free education(even paid) up to a Masters degree and moved country right after.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#307

Post by seewhydee »

roenxi wrote: post #302
throwaway2037 wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The West is made up of countries that often have 40%+ of their economy made up by government spending, ie, spending that wouldn't happen under a free market. How about Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Chile? What what is the "correct" percent to spend? And, what non-microstate countries do you consider "free market"? By the time you include: military, education, health, and infrastructure, it is very hard to be less than…

> What what is the "correct" percent to spend? Quite an interesting question - theories range from 0% to 100% and everywhere in between. Empirical evidence seems to be that >60% causes a collapse of some sort [3] since nobody serious is doing that. And probably a floor of 20% since Singapore operates at 15% but doesn't really try to field a military and is a micronation. Anywhere at 40%+ seems to have problems with i…

> Singapore operates at 15% but doesn't really try to field a military

Singapore is one of the most militarized countries on the planet. For example, they currently operate more jet fighters than Australia (100 vs 94).

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#308

Post by literalAardvark »

hardware2win wrote: post #260
literalAardvark wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because they've been allowed to call themselves engineers for so long that they're starting to believe they are. Industry is so hard that they often don't even hire from outside. You've either finished school and interned in or you're too difficult to retrain.

>That's because they've been allowed to call themselves engineers for so long that they're starting to believe they are. What a take. Is doctor telling bullshit about computers less doctor-ish?

I don't understand your question.

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#309

Post by hardware2win »

literalAardvark wrote: post #308
hardware2win wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>That's because they've been allowed to call themselves engineers for so long that they're starting to believe they are. What a take. Is doctor telling bullshit about computers less doctor-ish?

I don't understand your question.

Software engineeers dont work directly with hardware, it aint their expertise.

You definitely can be good SE without understanding semiconductors

Re: EU chip goal 'unrealistic' says ASML CEO

#310

Post by throwaway2037 »

seewhydee wrote: post #307
roenxi wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What what is the "correct" percent to spend? Quite an interesting question - theories range from 0% to 100% and everywhere in between. Empirical evidence seems to be that >60% causes a collapse of some sort [3] since nobody serious is doing that. And probably a floor of 20% since Singapore operates at 15% but doesn't really try to field a military and is a micronation. Anywhere at 40%+ seems to have problems with i…

> Singapore operates at 15% but doesn't really try to field a military Singapore is one of the most militarized countries on the planet. For example, they currently operate more jet fighters than Australia (100 vs 94).

Yes! I think their national budget rule is that 1 in 4 Sing dollars must be spent on the military. That is an enormous fraction. The annual military budget exceeds 11B USD. With a population of ~5.5M, that is 2,000 USD per capita.
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