Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The fed ... could simply allow all member banks to exchange low interest rate long term bonds for new higher yield bonds and pay the Fed for the spread with a loan. Maybe we should admit Congress will never repay the national debt and simply have the Fed purchase new federal debt issuance. The current complicated charade just pays banker bonuses.
SVB was holding 91 billion dollars of underwater securities (with a fair market value of 76) . The FED is currently holding 2.7 trillion with a t dollars of underwater securities
How deep is the rot in America’s banking industry?
301–310 of 325 posts
Re: How deep is the rot in America’s banking industry?
#302Earlier quoted context omitted.
And they also had a bank run. I think it was Stratechery that mentioned everyone knew the issue SVB was in for months. Had there been no bank run, SVB would possibly have been fine. With that said, it's good they got punished for poor decisions given their depositor profile.
That’s a pretty solid ‘as long as no one says the emperor has no clothes, he is fully clothed’ line though? If it was a short period of time (a week?) this was going on, then sure. The emperor darting to the bathroom without his clothes on is unlikely to be a scandal after all. But even if fed rates dropped tomorrow those bonds will not recover to par, because inflation on their principal amounts has already happened…
This is banking in general though. Any bank will struggle if a significant portion of deposits suddenly outflow. SVB was unique in that it had relatively large balances concentrated in relatively few depositors. This made it especially susceptible to a bank run. Of course they knew this and should have handled their risk appropriately.
Also, according to reports, they were very close to getting bridge financing. The run caused the financing to fall through, and we all saw what happened.
Re: How deep is the rot in America’s banking industry?
#303Today the big banks collectively agreed to inject $30bn of deposits into First Republic to sure it up: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-16/first-rep... Meanwhile, all the benevolent VC techbros had to do was collectively agree to just not withdraw all of their deposits from SVB en masse, and they couldn't even muster that. How deep is the rot in SV?
That would be irrational. It’s a Prisoner’s Dilemma and no matter what any individual would prefer to do the only rational move is to assume others will betray you. I don’t think it’s fair to ask SV to behave irrationally.
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/publication/byzanti...
Re: How deep is the rot in America’s banking industry?
#304People seem to have a really hard time with the idea that, in the SVB debacle, the system worked effectively and pretty much the way it was planned to. It's not even clear what people are upset about. There's an article on the front page of The Atlantic today about how angry we should be about SVB, and if you read it, it's hard to figure out who those angry people should be. Equity is getting zeroed out. Management w…
Well, people are specially angry about Depositors were made whole almost immediately among other things. And depositors to their dismay are learning they are about as much loved as Wall street bankers, corporate execs and billionaires. More than any particular moral deficiency I think people are finding a general lack of self-awareness common among SV startup founders infuriating.
That was amusing.
"S..See! A normal person!"
Re: How deep is the rot in America’s banking industry?
#305Earlier quoted context omitted.
I keep reading comments like this, but I've seen no well sourced material saying that the FDIC is raising rates. Do you have some reliable source about it? (NOT a "look at it logically" or "here's how my health insurance works, why would the FDIC be different", or "do your own research" or anything else that's some random internet comment - I'm looking for real meat about this claim).
From the Treasury announcement: Any losses to the Deposit Insurance Fund to support uninsured depositors will be recovered by a special assessment on banks, as required by law. In other words, if the FDIC's current funds can't cover the bill, an extra fee will be levied on banks to make up for it. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1337
The FDIC's current funds were $128.2 billion on December 31 2022
SVD had ~$200 billion of deposits December 31 2022 - but obviously had significant withdrawals prior to being taken over. Likely < 100 billion remained.
Re: How deep is the rot in America’s banking industry?
#306Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I've seen no well sourced material saying that the FDIC is raising rates Beyond the special assessment, they almost certainly need to raise a new assessment to cover $250k+ deposits. Full insurance can't be on a discretionary basis.
Janet has just declared that. The Banana court will determine whether you are worthy of full insurance or not. As a bank. I wouldn't be surprised if we have more of these in the future, that the insured parties will be favored too. "Oh, we are only covering X and Y, because they are systemically important to the rest of the economy". Buy Banana futures while it's still cheap.
Since 1933.
It always has been.
Re: How deep is the rot in America’s banking industry?
#307Earlier quoted context omitted.
Minus the assets they recovered from SVB which will probably cover most of it given they were just illiquid, not fraudulent. All those bonds didn’t just disappear.
The value of those bonds is less than what it says on the balance sheet. They were not able to sell them at price X meaning they are no longer worth that much. The rate on those bonds is less than inflation, meaning keeping them to maturity won't recover original value.
As long as the rates on the bond are > than the rates SVB is paying its depositors it will be fine.
Re: How deep is the rot in America’s banking industry?
#308Earlier quoted context omitted.
>> At that time It doesn't matter that prices might recover in the future. I'd argue they might not -- and if anyone believed otherwise they would buy up the assets at inflated prices (why arent they?!) SVN rolled the dice, made bets, the value is way down and... they didnt have enough money to allow customers to withdraw money. That is a fail. They needed to raise a lot of cash, they didnt/couldnt raise enough. That…
These assets will all be redeemable for par value when they mature. The only impairment they have is that they pay less interest in the interim than other available bonds, because their rates were locked in before the interest rate spike.
This is absolutely false -- there is no guarantee of this. Agency securities pay more than treasuries because there is a risk of default (never in aggregate, but pass-thru component cashflows i.e. individual homes.) Further, there is a risk that upon default, the home isn't of sufficient value to account for the lost principal. If anyone has doubts of the potential for default of agency securities, the mortgages underneath these bonds are all publicly displayed monthly: https://singlefamily.fanniemae.com/applications-technology/f... and you can see defaults also.
>> The only impairment they have is that they pay less interest in the interim than other available bonds, because their rates were locked in before the interest rate spike.
This is a third of the story.
Second third of the story: they may less interest than advertised due to defaults/delinquencies
Third third of the story -- and most important: their value has gone down, so in the immediate term, the bank depositor cannot withdraw money (because the bond cant be sold at book value.) It is absolutely not OK to tell bank depositors to wait 10yrs while a bond bays them back little by little. Bank depositors should be able to withdraw money at any point they want.
Re: How deep is the rot in America’s banking industry?
#309Earlier quoted context omitted.
Say you buy a theoretical 10 year zero-coupon bond with a 5% yield and a face value of $1,000. You should pay about $614 for it. You intend to hold it to maturity. Interest rates take a random walk from now until maturity. Under fair-value accounting, the balance sheet value starts at fair-value (obviously), then gyrates, but tends towards face value, and reaches it at maturity, due to time decay of bond premium. As…
Assuming I buy the bond today, the two accounting treatments agree (correctly) that in 2033, the bond is worth $1000 2033-dollars. The problem is that when interest rates increase, a 2033-dollar becomes worth relatively less than a 2023-dollar. So that agreement in future says nothing about the economic value of the bond today. That's the loss that took down the SVB, and it's a real economic loss. If the SVB's deposi…
... but SVB expected to have positive net-interest-income with increasing rates. Look here:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/719739/0000719739230...
A 100bp increase in interest rates would've increased net-interest-income by 1.8%; a 200bp increase by 3.5%. This is typical for banks, because lending rates go up more than deposit rates as the base rate increases, increasing interest margin.
So the idea that this is about NPV of future cash flows is not right.
Re: How deep is the rot in America’s banking industry?
#310All banks are suffering, buy some are suffering more than others. It's also unclear how the Fed's actions are going to impact the situation going forward. Here are my unanswered questions: 1. What's going to happen to risk management at banks now that the government has shown themselves willing to backstop all deposits. Is there really any reason to spend money hedging risk? 2. What's going to happen to the bond mark…
If BTFP can only be used by banks with hold to market bonds purchased before March 12th, then wouldn't the impact on bond prices be negligible? I suppose we could hypothesize what the bond market would like in the absence of BTFP and the much higher likely hood of contagion. Feels like yields would drop on the expectation that the Fed would be forced to lower rates due the crashing economy. So I guess one could argue…
As for the QE/QT performed by the Fed. The Fed's balance sheet has already increased by 300 billion, which undoes like half a year of QT. JPMC estimates a total of 2T in liquidity. Not only will that undo all QT, it will bring the Fed balance sheet to new all time highs.