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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

There's also "the Sicilian option". Putin, knowing that the pipelines are no longer practically useful, blew them up deliberately to seed mistrust and discontent among NATO allies. It's a mindbender, but he's also a former KGB officer and may have bombed his own people to justify the 2nd Chechen war[1]. He can only succeed in Ukraine if he divides Ukraine's western allies. What other tools does he have? [1] https://w…

> It's a mindbender, but he's also a former KGB officer

Your speculations are interesting. But the above adds nothing.

There’s nothing magical about having been in the KGB and one can’t determine one’s aptitude for ‘sneakiness’ from same. It’s just silly. Putin has been in power for 20+ years. There’s no need to draw conclusions about his character from his KGB days when you have such a rich history since then.

As an analogy, I remember when folks said Reagan was a great communicator because he had been an actor. Hogwash. He had been a politician far longer than an actor, served as the governor of California, leadership roles in the party and unions, etc. That is, his skill in communication while President was fostered from these experiences and not some ancient movie acting he did.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The conspiracy theory is that either the United States or some member of NATO sabotaged the pipeline so that Germany will not have the option of easing up on sanctions in order to purchase Russian Gas this winter.

Not every theory about conspiracy is a conspiracy theory. Fixed version: > The theory is that either the United States or some member of NATO conspired and sabotaged the pipeline so that Germany will not have the option of easing up on sanctions in order to purchase Russian Gas this winter.

Perhaps I should have said 'conjecture' instead. I felt like using the term conspiracy because the explanation seems plausible while simultaneously devious and covert.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

This is not "gas production in the EU", these pipelines used to transport gas produced in Russia to the EU. The termination of their operation has been a done deal for a while. The US has no interest in sabotaging them: it's already a done deal that the US will supply the EU with gas instead of Russia: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/europe-is... These facts won't prevent Russian bots from spreadin…

Russian bots?

https://www.thelocal.dk/20220407/danish-pm-rebuts-russian-am...

https://www.dvidshub.net/news/422733/us-military-makes-histo...

Who are they? are they russian by identity, american by faith?

US military was there, in the baltic sea

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#304
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has a LOT to gain from this. 1) They are running out of time on this war of aggression, and this will force gas price action NOW, not in December. They can sell gas through other pipelines to the EU if it accepts it. 2) Norway just TODAY inaugurated a new pipeline to the EU. Norway has warned about unaccounted-for drone activity around it's oil and gas fields. Russia is likely sending a message: "Nice pipeline…

Fair call Russia might have done it for those and other reasons. However 1) Was there any gas flowing at all? Sure anything can cause speculation. 2) This also makes it a convenient timing for the western allies to do it, including Norway. Germany is way too complacent with Russian for US liking. 3) Such more so the US in terms of operatives in Europe and Russia. Who says the US is sensitive to gas prices in Europe?…

>>Who says the US is sensitive to gas prices in Europe?

The US was already somewhat sensitive to global NatGas prices even before they recently permitted exports. Since we started permitting exports of NatGas, and are now actively sending all we physically can to support EU, it definitely affects both heating and electrical costs in the US, and the economy and political climate is very sensitive to those inputs.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Poland has an ideal device for this sabotage https://www.gospodarkamorska.pl/zdjecia/artykul/25081/135779...

Why does everyone assume the need for submersibles? Why not a small patrol boat dropping some depth charges on a time delay in the middle of the night?

> patrol boat dropping some depth charges on a time delay in the middle of the night

That's also an option, but you would have problems with precision and deniability*.

You could use some WW2 style device and blame it on German mines that are still present.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#306
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it cuts a huge temptation for Germans to find some compromise with Russia and allows them to sell LNG for huge profits?

Doesn't pass the smell test (also we're talking about the entire EU having issues not just Germany). Gigantic risk for the US and would eventually be found out which would destroy any semblance of relations with the EU and significantly strengthen Russia's hand. US companies (and others) are going to sell LNG to Europe for huge profits anyway. These pipelines weren't deliving gas anyway The US would prefer energy mar…

It doesn't pass the smell test for the simple reason that Germany and the EU were already ending dependency on Russian gas, because Russia has made it abundantly clear that any such dependency on Russia is a national security threat.

This wasn't done to coerce European countries. This was done to stir chaos and make it look like someone other than Russia committed sabotage.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#307
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has a LOT to gain from this. 1) They are running out of time on this war of aggression, and this will force gas price action NOW, not in December. They can sell gas through other pipelines to the EU if it accepts it. 2) Norway just TODAY inaugurated a new pipeline to the EU. Norway has warned about unaccounted-for drone activity around it's oil and gas fields. Russia is likely sending a message: "Nice pipeline…

US also has a precedent (from the other thread): > We actually did do this 40 years ago. Reagan covertly blew up a Soviet gas pipeline supplying Europe in 1982, which was publicized in 2004 when the former Secretary of the Air Force boasted about it. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/02/27/r ... ("Reagan Approved Plan to Sabotage Soviets" (2004)) - "At the time, the United States was attempting to…

Note that these boasts from the Secretaries autobiography are also the only source suggesting that this happened.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#308
post #54

The Swedish national seismic network picked up two explosions within kilometers of the reported gas leak locations yesterday. The time of the first explosion: Yesterday, Monday morning at 02:03 am, second one Monday evening at 7:04pm (local time, CEST). The reports of the gas leaks came at 1:52pm and 8:41pm, respectively - by means of ships reporting bubbling at the surface level. One of the two events registered at…

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

Could also be shoddy workmanship. Country of origin for the workman is at best a vague hint of quality, and a poor construction can take years if not decades to fail. Keystone's XL decommissioning planned penned out that they expected a minimum of 50 years of service from that pipeline, but over half the pipelines in the US carrying oil and gas are in excess of 60 years old and still operating.

Until the investigation is perform though, we simply don't have enough to go on.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#309
post #54

The Swedish national seismic network picked up two explosions within kilometers of the reported gas leak locations yesterday. The time of the first explosion: Yesterday, Monday morning at 02:03 am, second one Monday evening at 7:04pm (local time, CEST). The reports of the gas leaks came at 1:52pm and 8:41pm, respectively - by means of ships reporting bubbling at the surface level. One of the two events registered at…

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

You left out the obvious culprit. Jump to 1:20.

https://youtu.be/OS4O8rGRLf8

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#310
Does anybody know what this means in terms of bringing the pipeline back online? I'm assuming it's filling with seawater, which seems like it would cause all sorts of problems between the salt and debris.

Is it a matter of repairing the breaches, removing the water, cleaning the pipeline out, and pressurizing it or is this pipeline effectively destroyed?

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