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I can't let go of “The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation”

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Re: I can't let go of “The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation”

#301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Individual layer: It is closely associated with having a highly systematizing mind. People with ASD get drawn and pushed down a particular life history corridor. There are rewards of parental/teacher approval for high-performance in an area of profound interest, and a punishment in thef orm of peer bullying for low social skills. This conditions them to operate this way to avoid bullying and optimize for time seeming…

Thank you. Your explanation is not what I expected, and I really appreciate it.

Since this is a tangent off of Dunning Kruger, I have to wonder - am I missing something important about this?

Re: I can't let go of “The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation”

#302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you. Your explanation is not what I expected, and I really appreciate it.

Since this is a tangent off of Dunning Kruger, I have to wonder - am I missing something important about this?

No. I was just curious, and seeking understanding. I have friends that have told me their detailed future plans with exact timeframes and no contingency. I have seen others struggle to rationalise unpredicted forcing events in their lives - especially negative emotions when other people do not act according to their plan.

Re: I can't let go of “The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation”

#303
post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Galileo was not punished by the church for saying the earth orbits the sun. Galileo was indicted and punished by the church because he was a local elite with several personal and political enemies within the church, and more directly, because he slighted the pope, his former friend, by taking a philosophical argument made by said pope, and putting it, paraphrased, into the mouth of a character in his book who was na…

My "interpretation" of the situation comes mostly from http://tofspot.blogspot.com/2013/08/the-great-ptolemaic-smac... Have you read this perspective before? Is it a well known "oh not this again" incorrect source in the world of renaissance italy theology and history?

Yes, I've TOF's blog posts before. TOF's perspective is one that I've encounter many times before. You mostly find it in some very conservative Catholic circles.

If I was being generous, I would say that TOF was pushing back against the overwrought hagiography that often surrounds Galileo and his confrontation with the Church. It's true that the common story is an over simplified account and there are some persistent myths that have worked their way into the story over the years into in order to make Galileo look more heroic and the Church more villainous than they either actually was. The real story is a bit complicated.

But the Church really did ban heliocentrism and it really did punish Galileo for arguing for it. That's not in question. I feel that TOF's argument otherwise rests on a deliberate misrepresentation.

TOF's argument the Church was actually just smartly waiting for proof before it changed it's doctrines is a bit rich in that Galileo offered proof and was punished for it. Now, Galileo's proof was bad, but that's not why he was punished. If it was, the Inquisitors would have mentioned that and not simply accused him of heresy for arguing that the Sun stood still. Not to mention that this whole idea rests on the bizarre notion that science works best when you silence debate until proof can be provided

Ironically, that whole argument stems from a quote from Robert Bellarmine's letter to Foscarini, where he admits that Galileo has a point about not interpreting scripture in a way that is provably false. In that quote, Bellarmine isn't saying that the Church is waiting for proof, he's saying that while proof would force him to change his mind, he doesn't think such proof is possible so he may as well go ahead and ban Copenicanism anyway. It's real obvious if you read the very next sentence that TOF for some reason doesn't quote:

> I add that the one who wrote, "The sun also ariseth, and the sun goeth down, and hasteth to his place where he arose," was Solomon. who not only spoke inspired by God, but was a man above all others wise and learned in the human sciences and in the knowledge of created things; he received all this wisdom from God; therefore it is not likely that he was affirming something that was contrary to truth already demonstrated or capable of being demonstrated.

In other words, he doesn't believe that Galileo or anybody else will be able to find proof that the sun stays still because that would contradict what he already believes based on his reading of the Bible!

So no, TOF is misrepresenting the stance of the Church in 1616. A lot of people repeat this because it looks like a clever debunking of a common myth, but it's actually more of bunking in that he inserts a lot of detail in order to disguise some blatant misrepresentation.

Re: I can't let go of “The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation”

#304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but I don't think sound statistics can mislead. Of course they can, unless you magically exclude all statistics that made a bad assumption on independence. I plot all the daily high temperatures and the presence of the ice cream cart and it turns out the ice cream cart causes warmer highs! Solid statistics. Turns out the guy that has the ice cream cart has a weather app on his phone though and doesn’t come out on f…

That's not sound statistics. How can you call something sound and then point out a clear problem with it?

There’s nothing wrong with the statistics. That’s the point.

Re: I can't let go of “The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation”

#305
Thank you infinitely for taking the time to respond.

I don't have this luxury in my life right now but I admit after reading the "original" post almost a fourth time, I was really hoping someone would take the time to explain why/how the author could be completely wrong (or not).

Thanks.

Re: I can't let go of “The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation”

#306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fascinating! I don’t know about supply chain, but I can tell you it’s the same in programming. I suspect these points apply to creative ideas in general.

Well, so far I've seen it SCM (professionally), you see it in sports basically every weekend (we have close to 80 million national soccer coaches in Germany), I've seen it in boxing (I'm nowhere near to number 2 there anymore, but usually novices come with no idea, then they think are good until someone shows them "nah, you still don't know how to box")... So I guess it is the same everywhere in any domain.

> we have close to 80 million national soccer coaches in Germany

I'd guess much more probably around 40 million. Sure, some women are interested, but then some men aren't.

(What, me prejudiced? Prejudice persists because it's so often right.)

Re: I can't let go of “The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation”

#307
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>it seems to me that, for DK to be 'surprising' (in the parlance of the OP), four phenomena must hold: The surprising things about DK, to me at any rate, is how unvarying it is in application. Under DK people who are poor at something never think wow I really suck at this, or if they do they are such a minuscule part of the population that we can discount them. I've known lots of people who were not good at particula…

There is an easy reframing that works well. People that are "poor" at something don't know enough to know just how good someone can be at something. And this tracks for most skills. How good are you at tying your shoes? Probably average? Just how good can you get? Probably not that much better, all told. It is a clearly defined goal and likely has a limit on the skill you can build. What about writing your name? Putt…

Obligatory Shoelace Site page: https://www.fieggen.com/shoelace/knots.htm

(My recommendations are: When you really need your laces to hold, the Mega Ian Shoelace Knot - https://www.fieggen.com/shoelace/megaianknot.htm ; and for most shoes and definitely all laced boots (and absolutely for ice skates!), the Over Under Lacing: https://www.fieggen.com/shoelace/overunderlacing.htm .)

Re: I can't let go of “The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation”

#308
post #93

As a novice on DK, it seems to me that, for DK to be 'suprising' (in the parlance of the OP), four phenomena must hold: 1) an incompetent person is poorer than average at self assessment of their skill 2) as a person's competence increases at a skill, their ability to self-assess improves, until they become 'expert' which is defined by underappreciating their own skill (or overappreciating the skill of others) 3) DK…

What does "suffering from DK" even means?

Exactly. One would enjoy this blissful ignorance of one's incompetence, I'd think.
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