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Plans you're not supposed to talk about

dynomight.net

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Re: Plans you're not supposed to talk about

#301
post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"which is why revolutions usually end in tragedy" A more judicious takeaway might be that revolutions often have tragic periods. The French revolution had its blood-soaked Terror and Thermidor, lead to the Napoleonic wars in which many perished, etc. But it also liberated millions, spread an ideal of democracy and human rights cherished by much of the world today. The U.S. Civil War and Reconstruction were in every s…

Your rosy view of the historical consequences of the French Revolution is, to say the least, questionable. I would say the main historical consequence of the French Revolution has been a lot of other revolutions which had even more tragic consequences (up to and including the ones in the 20th century that led to more than a hundred million deaths), while rosy language about "liberation" and "democracy" kept people fr…

The only reason we no longer live under hereditary monarchies, ruled over by privileged-by-birth nobles who are very explicitly and shamelessly above the law, is because revolutions have done a great job of either killing off those monarchs and nobles, or by scaring the surviving ones into giving up their power.

I don't think you have any appreciation for how the basic rights you take for granted were a direct product of the rivers of blood shed in those struggles.

Re: Plans you're not supposed to talk about

#302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You ask a difficult and important question. The two relevant ideas I know are: 1. Chesterton's Fence: "I don't understand why this exists, so let's tear it down" is an big and tempting error. Wait until you understand. 2. Consequences of societal change are inherently unknowable, which is why revolutions usually end in tragedy. The sane approach is to change society incrementally, see what happens, and adjust and lea…

Perhaps I'm being too US-centric but I feel like you at-best mean conservatism with a lower-case 'c'. Even then the very definition of conservatism explicitly avoids any change: > commitment to traditional values and ideas with opposition to change or innovation I've never known conservatism to be anything except opposition to change as that's the most conservative thing you can generally do: nothing.

If we talk about politics even the conservatives are liberal, both want society to be better with different methods. Few conservatives say do nothing, one critique of conservatives is "what exactly are they conserving?" Amish are one of the fastest groups to adopt solar panels and have done so for decades.

> commitment to traditional values and ideas with opposition to change or innovation

Trump was not traditional, and Obama was very moderate, even stating he did not support gay marriage. Don't trust general labels!

Re: Plans you're not supposed to talk about

#303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You ask a difficult and important question. The two relevant ideas I know are: 1. Chesterton's Fence: "I don't understand why this exists, so let's tear it down" is an big and tempting error. Wait until you understand. 2. Consequences of societal change are inherently unknowable, which is why revolutions usually end in tragedy. The sane approach is to change society incrementally, see what happens, and adjust and lea…

"Consequences of societal change are inherently unknowable" Let's imagine for a second that we really believe is this idea - society is in a fragile equilibrium, and any change is dangerous and could be for the worse. Well, first obvious effect is that any change regarding woman rights, etc. would not have happened the way it did. That's in line with the Conservative viewpoint. But more importantly, the society chang…

> No mainstream conservatives proposes 'let's ban kids form having mobile phones and Facebook until we fully understand their effect'. So if you are not willing to apply the principle consistently

Instituting a new, wide-sweeping government ban is itself a major change. It's not unusual for conservative families to implement those sort of rules in their households.

Re: Plans you're not supposed to talk about

#304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This ^. If the shots are truly protective, I don't understand what the hubbub is all about. Is it really all about protecting those who truly can't get the shot for whatever reason? I doubt it.

If you catch the flu once your immune system remembers it and can easily deal with exposure much better, but this memory fades in time. Your immune system isn't perfect either, and there are breakthrough cases, and this is more frequent in the elderly, albeit frequently milder. The vaccine offers protection similar to catching the flu (albeit much better in the case of the mRNA and J&J ones ( I'm disappointed I'm exp…

I know all that. I can fully accept that the vaccine doesn’t make me invulnerable. I have the vaccine and am fully prepared to go back to living my normal life while accepting that I still have some risk. I don’t think that forcing other people to get vaccinated further reduces the risk to me (which is already very low). At least, it doesn’t provide enough of a benefit to offset the costs of removing freedom.

Dying from Covid is more or less optional at this point. If you want to remove the risk of dying, get the vaccine. If you want to take the risk, don’t. People are free to do other risky things like skydiving or free climbing. If you don’t want to accept the risks of those things you can opt out of doing them.

Re: Plans you're not supposed to talk about

#305
> Force everyone to solve the problem entirely by reducing CO2 emissions.

I know it's not the point of the post but that's not the only other option. We can also keep CO2 emissions high, or even increase them. We just need to recapture them later. This is already being worked on, supported mostly by companies like Stripe and Microsoft. If we just invested more into this, we wouldn't have such a rough choice.

Re: Plans you're not supposed to talk about

#306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps I'm being too US-centric but I feel like you at-best mean conservatism with a lower-case 'c'. Even then the very definition of conservatism explicitly avoids any change: > commitment to traditional values and ideas with opposition to change or innovation I've never known conservatism to be anything except opposition to change as that's the most conservative thing you can generally do: nothing.

I called it "the sane version of Conservatism". There are many others. Political scientists probably have a more specific name for mine. I should learn that some day. Yeah, many people with very different ideas call themselves conservatives. > I've never known conservatism to be anything except opposition to change as that's the most conservative thing you can generally do: nothing. Have you never known conservatives…

>Have you never known conservatives wanting to lower taxes, deregulate the economy, and decentralize decision making?

I know its not conservative or liberal, it depends how you look at it. Deregulation of markets was seen as liberal at one time, devolution is pretty well supported except by some that support strong central government control, and lower taxes is often seen as American conservative, instead of offering services that they skim, or taxing you and giving you back more money (lol) they just won't take it in the first place. Milton Friedman's negative income tax is a beautiful way to help the poor without sudden cutoffs for when they try to become wealthier too.

I would say that these labels aren't as useful as top down control (big government, tell people what to do) or bottom up control (power to the people, let them do as they want to). Both can be useful for different reasons. The ozone hole and banning freon was top down but the tragedy of the common would mean it would never get fixed. The federal government also shouldn't raid dispensaries and prevent weed smoking.

Re: Plans you're not supposed to talk about

#307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Unless there is too much inflation like in Weimar Republic The government money printing press is not free market. > too much corruption like in Russia The government's role in a free market is to prevent corruption. > too much monopoly like with Standard Oil Standard Oil was very good for consumers, as SO brought about something like a 70% reduction in kerosene prices. Besides, SO never was a monopoly. It was accu…

"The government money printing press is not free market." Oh no, not again this 'No True Scottman'-'Free market' myth. Let's go down this path - what does 'free market' theory say, how much money should be in the economy? How should it be created or destroyed? There is no natural process for it, whoever has lisense to print money can rule the world or collapse the economy. 'Free market theory' provides no answer, jus…

> how much money should be in the economy? How should it be created or destroyed?

Great questions.

Money is created when money is loaned out against collateral. Money is destroyed when the loan is repaid and the collateral returned. It's a natural process. The pressure on it is to have the supply of money match the value in the collateral.

> whoever has lisense to print money

Under a free banking system, anyone can print money. Of course, anyone printing money has to convince others that it has value. Did you know that anyone can print money today? We call them "IOUs", "checks", and more recently, "credit cards". We're all familiar with having to convince others that our IOUs, checks, and credit cards will be honored.

I'm not aware of any that managed to rule the world or collapse the economy.

> no answer

I just gave you one! I can only surmise you've been talking to the wrong people. May I suggest Milton Friedman's "Monetary History of the United States". It's tough sledding, but worth it if you really want to know.

> Is using a physical valuable substance as money, let's say gold, free market?

Of course. Are you familiar with the commodities marketplace? It's the same thing, but would you call that mercantilism? Shipping gold around to settle debts, however, is clumsy, expensive, and dangerous, hence the rise of trading receipts for the gold instead, and later those receipts turning into bank notes, and even later became electronic entries in a ledger.

> Do you want to have gold standard and fractional reserve banking?

That's how free banking worked in the United States. It's free market.

> they used to collapse all the time.

Not all the time, but banks did fail from time to time.

> That's why we invented central banks.

That was the public reason. The real reason was to inflate the money. As for collapse, now we have fewer bank failures, but when they do fail, it's a doozy (Great Depression, 2008, etc.). Also, did you notice that as of this month 9% of the money you had last year disappeared? You can thank our fiat money system for that.

I grew up in the Carter stagflation years, and learned to never keep more than pocket money around. It's all in things that aren't inflated into worthlessness by the central bank.

P.S. How do I know all this stuff? My dad spent the last years of his career as head of the finance department at a college. We had many long and happy conversations about how banks worked. It isn't an easy subject, but I wish more people could have such an experience.

Re: Plans you're not supposed to talk about

#308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You ask a difficult and important question. The two relevant ideas I know are: 1. Chesterton's Fence: "I don't understand why this exists, so let's tear it down" is an big and tempting error. Wait until you understand. 2. Consequences of societal change are inherently unknowable, which is why revolutions usually end in tragedy. The sane approach is to change society incrementally, see what happens, and adjust and lea…

"Consequences of societal change are inherently unknowable" Let's imagine for a second that we really believe is this idea - society is in a fragile equilibrium, and any change is dangerous and could be for the worse. Well, first obvious effect is that any change regarding woman rights, etc. would not have happened the way it did. That's in line with the Conservative viewpoint. But more importantly, the society chang…

>Let's imagine for a second that we really believe is this idea - society is in a fragile equilibrium, and any change is dangerous and could be for the worse.

Surely you see the problems with technology, you don't think that the world was more social, people less polarized, and less isolated? Why do we have to assume its not when its obviously true, smartphones did change society greatly, so did online dating apps. They are not beliefs or guesswork.

>No mainstream conservatives proposes 'let's ban kids form having mobile phones and Facebook until we fully understand their effect'.

American conservatism isn't about preventing changes, its about less govenment control. In fact to other countries they are considered very liberal. Nancy Pelosi banned ecigs to protect the children, does that mean that she is conservative?

>It seems hypocritical, a bit like 'pro life' people not supporting healthcare reform.

They think aborting which is killing an unwanted baby is murder, but they ignore who takes care of the child after, its something I have a problem with too.

Re: Plans you're not supposed to talk about

#309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 6 all-natural mass extinction events Are you sure about that? Or have people just not discovered the cause yet? Pick one, let's explore it.

Sure, the Oxygen Catastrophe, 2.3 billion years ago. I do, wonder, given that all the extinctions happened before humans existed, what possible alternative to 'natural' could there be, aliens?

> possible alternatives

Asteroids, vulcanism are the usual culprits. There also could be cosmic ray bursts from exploding stars.

> the Oxygen Catastrophe

There seem to be many hypotheses about that:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Oxidation_Event

and it isn't clear to me there was a collapse, but a gradual replacement.

Re: Plans you're not supposed to talk about

#310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Unless there is too much inflation like in Weimar Republic The government money printing press is not free market. > too much corruption like in Russia The government's role in a free market is to prevent corruption. > too much monopoly like with Standard Oil Standard Oil was very good for consumers, as SO brought about something like a 70% reduction in kerosene prices. Besides, SO never was a monopoly. It was accu…

"The government money printing press is not free market." Oh no, not again this 'No True Scottman'-'Free market' myth. Let's go down this path - what does 'free market' theory say, how much money should be in the economy? How should it be created or destroyed? There is no natural process for it, whoever has lisense to print money can rule the world or collapse the economy. 'Free market theory' provides no answer, jus…

I'm sorry, but if your definition of free market literally includes a government printing money to get rid of its debt (like the Weimar republic did), then your definition is just broken. The 'free' in free market literally refers to governments (or other actors) not interfering in trade. There is no prescribed free market monetary policy, but if you intentionally manipulate the market through monetary policy (as is common policy - the fed's goal isn't only monetary stability, they also account for things like unemployment), it's absurd to blame free markets if this goes wrong.

Using gold as your currency also isn't mercantilism. Mercantilism is about increasing exports while reducing imports. e.g. China today is quite mercantilist, despite not using gold.

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