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New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

301–310 of 432 posts

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also worth noting that a lot of the narrative makes it sound like people called him racist for the ban, but it was mostly his use of "Kung-flu" and "china virus" that people had an issue with, not the ban itself.

This is absolutely not true. Every public figure left of center in the country commented viciously about the racist, stupid travel ban.

Source please. Find me a prominent politician that specifically called the China travel ban itself racist or xenophobic.

If every politician did it, it must be easy to find a clip.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#302
post #288

> We know that B.1.1.529 is not a “Delta plus” variant. The figure below shows a really long line, with no previous Delta ancestors. So this likely means it mutated over time in one, likely immunocompromised, individual (see my P.S. note at the end of the post). How does that work ? Virus mutate inside the host until either death or the immune system stops it ? Why is the absence of selective pressure producing a vir…

There is selective pressure, and in fact more than for a normal person! It is coming from them being treated with some kind of antibody treatment (e.g. convalescent plasma) but not to a level that would actually cure them. I just wrote a comment on this a few hours ago in another thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29354300

I think his confusion is that there doesn't seem to be a novel force that causes the virus to change. The person is the same, so the virus's situation is the same. But like you say, you don't need a new constraint, you just need enough time.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#303
post #3

> Travel bans are not evidence-based: It may seem like travel bans for individual countries are a necessary step, but I cannot stress enough that they do not work. This one point compromised the article for me. The standard for “working”, like all measures, is to slow down the spread. We all know travel bans got a bad name because you-know-who proposed them. But all countries imposed travel bans and we ought to be co…

You need to be clear about the cost of these measures and about the benefit of the delays they buy. > to buy time for the “weeks” of analysis needed that could help with further reducing risk, We’re not going to learn anything useful in the few weeks bought by stopping these flights. And remember, even though the general public insists on these bans, international law proscribes no country can prevent its own citizen…

I have no such obligation nor a strong opinion. The author of the article said they don’t work. The burden you state is on them, not me. The passage you quoted had an “if” in front of it on purpose.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#304
post #3

> Travel bans are not evidence-based: It may seem like travel bans for individual countries are a necessary step, but I cannot stress enough that they do not work. This one point compromised the article for me. The standard for “working”, like all measures, is to slow down the spread. We all know travel bans got a bad name because you-know-who proposed them. But all countries imposed travel bans and we ought to be co…

>because you-know-who proposed them Have we really arrived at the point where we've become the parody of a society in a Harry Potter book?

Yea, it’s clear that even saying the world “Trump” triggers people enough that you stand to get more signal in responses if you avoid writing it. Don’t shoot the messenger, I don’t have TDS.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#305
post #299

With 32 mutations spread out over the ~1300 base pair spike protein, we're approaching the point where antibody resistance will be an issue. But knowing how our bureaucracy works, there is basically zero chance they'll update the vaccine to target omicron (which is very likely to become the dominant variant within a few months).

At the same time, a change in the spike protein that is radical enough to make the antibodies completely ineffective may also make the virus non-functional. The key can change a little, but it still needs to open the lock.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with about 95% of this, but, I don't think "travel bans got a bad name because you-know-who proposed them." I think they got a bad name because you-know-who proposed them previously, targeting countries with you-know-what religion, for a political reason. Had it been just "we're going to reduce air traffic into the country to slow the spread of the virus," I don't think that would have been terribly controver…

It's also worth noting that a lot of the narrative makes it sound like people called him racist for the ban, but it was mostly his use of "Kung-flu" and "china virus" that people had an issue with, not the ban itself.

No, it was because the 'ban' still allowed thousands of people from China to arrive from China in spit of the so-called 'ban'.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#307
post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We cannot do the science, because such a randomized test would be deeply unethical. Thank you for perfectly illustrating the problem. I was actually sort of worried that people wouldn't take me seriously when I said that science has become so political that we actually can't do any . It sounds conspiratorial, doesn't it? But, alas: 1) I post results of RCTs showing that masks do little, if anything. 2) Someone repl…

It isn't a political issue to not do studies that require doing things that actively and intentionally put people at things we know are highly likely to put them at risk of physical harm. The world decided this was unethical long before the current political climate.

But what if those people volunteer?

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, then when does this end? I'm all ears!

It doesn't end until you make it end. When I close my laptop, I am unaware there is even anything going on; I don't wear a mask, I am unvaccinated, and I am fortunate enough to live in a place where people largely behave in this same way. My life is 100% the same as it was 3 years ago. If you're restricting your own behavior, stop. If you're being restricted by third parties, seriously consider moving or outright dis…

Unless you live in a 100% isolated, self sufficient community, your number will be called eventually. If that's the tradeoff you want to make then enjoy your life. But bragging about your life being the same as it was 3 years ago isn't the brag you think it is. Meanwhile, everyone else is living 90% of the life they were 3 years ago, but they'll continue that for a long and healthy life.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#309

> We know that B.1.1.529 is not a “Delta plus” variant. The figure below shows a really long line, with no previous Delta ancestors. So this likely means it mutated over time in one, likely immunocompromised, individual (see my P.S. note at the end of the post). How does that work ? Virus mutate inside the host until either death or the immune system stops it ? Why is the absence of selective pressure producing a vir…

This isn't really my area so this is conjecture and guesswork. If various immunocompromised people get infected then by a fluke their immune system could be just powerful enough to contain the infection but not eradicate it, this will remain the case until the virus becomes too powerful and the host dies. It's not the absence of selective pressure that is driving the mutation here, it's the mere fact that the virus m…

This is closer to my area, you're basically right. Viruses copy a lot in immunocompromised people for a long time. Lots of copying is all ya need to make variants.

Re: New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529

#310
post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I could say the same thing about pants but I still have to wear them in public.

You might be wearing pants wrong.

I wear them like I wear my mask, low and only covering half of what they should.
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