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Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

reuters.com

301–310 of 408 posts

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think Tether is in purely Evergrande bonds, but I do think Tether has a load of Chinese bonds/commercial paper, and if an Evergrande default causes a general reduction in the value of those, Tether will be in a very sticky position as they'll have a large hole in their reserves...

Why do you believe that?

If their commercial paper is something other than Evergrande, surely they'd have said so by now. (Assuming it exists at all, of course)

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have been talking about the "rickety foundation" of China for decades. I'm sure when they have an economic downturn sometime in the next two decades, those people will all come out to crow about how they had been right all along. To me, they seem to be building on top of a more modern infrastructure base and do not have the super-prevalent NIMBY problems that exist in the West.

> People have been talking about the "rickety foundation" of China for decades Economically, sure. (Those always struck me as sour grapes or a fundamental misunderstanding of how debt works in a centrally-planned economy.) Politically, however, the CCP had intraparty competition that avoided the sort of rot that felled the Soviets. It also kept the Party thinking long term. Hong Kong and Taiwan are good examples of X…

In 8 years, China is not going to rot to the degree you're referring to. So Xi made a mistake and maybe cost China Taiwan... but in no way does China's future depend on Taiwan. He has to make a lot more mistakes or be in power much longer. Right now, his tenure could be compared to a bad US president... we survive that sort of damage fine (it's not good, but the country isnt going to fail).

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#303

> Shares of developer Fantasia Holdings (1777.HK) plunged 50% on Wednesday after it said there was no guarantee it would be able to meet its other financial obligations following a missed payment of $205.7 million due on Oct. 4. Watch the US bond market closely. Today saw a sharp selloff on the 10-year maturity, a favorite "asset" of foreign governments and companies. When those organizations get into trouble, they s…

Absolutely crazy that the top comment on this story is a "USD short squeeze" idea after 5 hours. These amounts, 200 million, 150 million USD.. this is peanuts, a fart in the wind. PROTIP: Anyone like Lyn Alden that is offering premium stock tips is by definition a fraud, if you can beat the markets you just beat the markets and Scrooge McDuck-it, you don't run a damn newsletter.

Lehman Bros was, relatively speaking, also a "fart in the wind" - it all started with $2.8 billion loss (not even default). Things kinda snowballed massively from there though, over the course of a few months to the point where it was a threat to the global financial system. The fear is the same could happen in China as well.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#304

> Shares of developer Fantasia Holdings (1777.HK) plunged 50% on Wednesday after it said there was no guarantee it would be able to meet its other financial obligations following a missed payment of $205.7 million due on Oct. 4. Watch the US bond market closely. Today saw a sharp selloff on the 10-year maturity, a favorite "asset" of foreign governments and companies. When those organizations get into trouble, they s…

Absolutely crazy that the top comment on this story is a "USD short squeeze" idea after 5 hours. These amounts, 200 million, 150 million USD.. this is peanuts, a fart in the wind. PROTIP: Anyone like Lyn Alden that is offering premium stock tips is by definition a fraud, if you can beat the markets you just beat the markets and Scrooge McDuck-it, you don't run a damn newsletter.

That's a $150 million payment that they can't make. The concern is how are they going to make the future payments? Their total liabilities are on the order of $300 billion. Fantasia (mentioned in the story) is another China real estate developer in trouble. The concern is that this is the tip of the iceberg.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#305
post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since you asked, China basically had an inside man in the Californian pension system and purchased a large amount of Chinese tech stocks. Beijing then pulled the carpet out from under them, causing 400B in US pension losses: https://www.google.com/amp/s/californiaglobe.com/articles/us...

amp links really undermine your credibility... https://californiaglobe.com/fr/us-pension-funds-lost-400-bil...

I can't tell if this is a joke or you are serious. Can you clarify?

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely crazy that the top comment on this story is a "USD short squeeze" idea after 5 hours. These amounts, 200 million, 150 million USD.. this is peanuts, a fart in the wind. PROTIP: Anyone like Lyn Alden that is offering premium stock tips is by definition a fraud, if you can beat the markets you just beat the markets and Scrooge McDuck-it, you don't run a damn newsletter.

Official or public available info on those Chinese debts are a couple hundred mils. Yes these are peanuts. But unofficial numbers are several magnitude higher even extremely likely Chinese authority unaware of (2008 showed that US government had no clue how bad it was back then which even AIG almost gone). It is basically the iceberg sinking Titanic in the remaking now on Chinese financial front. Also, when USD start…

Or, perhaps the Chinese government revalues gold at $10k.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#307

> Shares of developer Fantasia Holdings (1777.HK) plunged 50% on Wednesday after it said there was no guarantee it would be able to meet its other financial obligations following a missed payment of $205.7 million due on Oct. 4. Watch the US bond market closely. Today saw a sharp selloff on the 10-year maturity, a favorite "asset" of foreign governments and companies. When those organizations get into trouble, they s…

The US can keep issuing dollars for as long as they like. And you will buy these pieces of paper because they are backed by the US Military, the US Air Force and the US Navy.

Are you sure? The US military doesn’t look to be at its peak. Despite its massive budget China’s military rise and the return of Russian military power might be changing the US’s role as the worlds only military super power.

We may spend 10 times more than any other nation on our military … but due to bureaucracy and other inefficiencies our spending doesn’t quite get the same bang for its buck if you will.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#308

> Shares of developer Fantasia Holdings (1777.HK) plunged 50% on Wednesday after it said there was no guarantee it would be able to meet its other financial obligations following a missed payment of $205.7 million due on Oct. 4. Watch the US bond market closely. Today saw a sharp selloff on the 10-year maturity, a favorite "asset" of foreign governments and companies. When those organizations get into trouble, they s…

Absolutely crazy that the top comment on this story is a "USD short squeeze" idea after 5 hours. These amounts, 200 million, 150 million USD.. this is peanuts, a fart in the wind. PROTIP: Anyone like Lyn Alden that is offering premium stock tips is by definition a fraud, if you can beat the markets you just beat the markets and Scrooge McDuck-it, you don't run a damn newsletter.

It really isn't hard to beat the markets, just buy Bitcoin.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, it doesn't _have_ to, ask Zimbabweans. But there are real reasons they would not want to print forever.

QE and printing are different though

Not in substance.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#310
post #121

> Shares of developer Fantasia Holdings (1777.HK) plunged 50% on Wednesday after it said there was no guarantee it would be able to meet its other financial obligations following a missed payment of $205.7 million due on Oct. 4. Watch the US bond market closely. Today saw a sharp selloff on the 10-year maturity, a favorite "asset" of foreign governments and companies. When those organizations get into trouble, they s…

Are you predicting large scale deflation? That’s the opposite of what we’re seeing now, but if it happens the fed can fix it by just printing money.

Generally speaking the vast majority of money is created by the private sector and not the government. For the Fed to be able to "fix" this by printing more money would already represent a large systematic change. This isn't impossible but fending off a deflationary shock is far more complex than people tend to assume, I think in part because of underlying assumptions that the majority of monetary creation is done by the government when in fact that may not be the case.
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