Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022 • Hacker News Board

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#301

Post by dapids » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 11:35 PM UTC

yholio wrote: post #282

TeMPOraL wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way I see it, this makes sense in a hypothetical world of perfect theoretical models (you may recognize this world as being the one inhabited by frictionless, perfectly spherical cows). In this world, scalpers cause the market to price in "stickiness" - the more critical an item is to the buyer, the more they'll be willing to pay - so the supply ultimately gets allocated to the most desperate of buyers, for the p…

Scalpers perform a social service by rationing demand and ensuring availability. They don't eat the whole consumer surplus, rather, they must compete amongst themselves and the price you pay is the amount that makes client N+1 walk away if total supply is N. Some of the buyers will find that close to their margin, but others, for which the product is essential in very valuable (thus socially useful) goods or services…

> "Scalpers perform a social service"

Good luck finding anyone willing to recognize this absurd point.

> "the problem is low competition"

Tell that to the GPU market.

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#302

Post by babypuncher » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 11:35 PM UTC

PicassoCTs wrote: post #157

hutrdvnj wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scalpers are not the problem as they seem, they are like market makers for stock exchanges. They buy low and sell high, always. The factory could tell you that they're currently out of stock for the next few months, but a scalper will never be out of stock, because their prices rises so high that only very few desperate companies would buy. The point is, it's better to have the option to buy something at a high price…

Scalpers hedge on the fragility of just-in-time - they milk the short-term thinkers for all they saved in the good times and are thus a healthy part of the market. Why do we praise people betting on actors being hurt by bad decisions like ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry ) but condemn the same behavior on the smaller scale of physical products?

Scalpers do hurt innocent consumers, which is why they are so widely hated. Someone trying to buy their spouse a GPU or a PlayStation for Christmas isn't the one responsible for a fragile just-in-time supply chain. Many times, the problem isn't even the supply chain, it's just the fact that demand exceeds the total possible supply, like with concert tickets.

In the consumer space, there are many ways for vendors and retailers to combat scalpers, but their motivation to do so is minimal. They make the same money off a GPU or PlayStation regardless of who buys it.

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#303

Post by cwkoss » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 11:36 PM UTC

Is there a DIY chip fabrication scene? What is the cutting edge of what hobbyists are doing in their own garages?

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#304

Post by nosianu » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 11:38 PM UTC

taffer wrote: post #261

beebeepka wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the right question. As Huang said a few years ago: the more you buy, the more you save

> As Huang said a few years ago: the more you buy, the more you save This is what wholesalers do: they buy large quantities at low prices and then sell small quantities at high prices.

Wholesalers' key contribution is distribution though. They have actual infrastructure and do real work that is actually useful. They also do this continuously, providing a stable service, and not just sometimes to get in on some market swings.

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#305

Post by sannee » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 11:41 PM UTC

the__alchemist wrote: post #167

PicassoCTs wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scalpers hedge on the fragility of just-in-time - they milk the short-term thinkers for all they saved in the good times and are thus a healthy part of the market. Why do we praise people betting on actors being hurt by bad decisions like ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry ) but condemn the same behavior on the smaller scale of physical products?

Scalpers hurt anyone launching a hardware product who doesn't have the order quantity to buy direct-from-manufacturer.

I, for one, am happy that I can get enough parts for a prototype run even if at 5x the price.

Especially as otherwise, those parts would just get sold to the car manufacturers and would be used to make ethically questionable products.

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#306

Post by Red_Leaves_Flyy » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 11:43 PM UTC

yholio wrote: post #282

TeMPOraL wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way I see it, this makes sense in a hypothetical world of perfect theoretical models (you may recognize this world as being the one inhabited by frictionless, perfectly spherical cows). In this world, scalpers cause the market to price in "stickiness" - the more critical an item is to the buyer, the more they'll be willing to pay - so the supply ultimately gets allocated to the most desperate of buyers, for the p…

Scalpers perform a social service by rationing demand and ensuring availability. They don't eat the whole consumer surplus, rather, they must compete amongst themselves and the price you pay is the amount that makes client N+1 walk away if total supply is N. Some of the buyers will find that close to their margin, but others, for which the product is essential in very valuable (thus socially useful) goods or services…

In a civilized society it is the governments burden and obligation to ensure scarce resources are shared responsibly. When this process is disrupted and not quickly remedied you will inevitably discover that people take matters into their hands to get what they need. They might commit white collar crimes or engage in destructive or violent robberies and protests. They might also roll out the guillotines and collect some scalps to remind society at large that the most dangerous people are those who’ve had everything robbed of them. When entire regions and communities are allowed to reach this point war is almost inevitable.

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#307

Post by nosianu » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 11:44 PM UTC

cwkoss wrote: post #303

Is there a DIY chip fabrication scene? What is the cutting edge of what hobbyists are doing in their own garages?

That was actually a post here on HN just a few weeks ago.

Here's one "point of entry" (to find the homepage and similar videos and pages): https://youtu.be/IS5ycm7VfXg "Upgraded Homemade Silicon Chips"

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#308

Post by jimmydorry » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 11:45 PM UTC

hutrdvnj wrote: post #137

kbaker wrote: post #114

One important part of the chip shortage is the massive amount of price gouging going on. Every IC is being bought up by new 3rd party distributors to scalp to desperate electronics manufacturers. Take a look at this chip we are just now crossing as an example, click on 'Non-authorized stocking distributors': https://octopart.com/tps2052bdgnr-texas+instruments-699312?r... Win Source has a bunch, but you will pay 6x th…

Scalpers are not the problem as they seem, they are like market makers for stock exchanges. They buy low and sell high, always. The factory could tell you that they're currently out of stock for the next few months, but a scalper will never be out of stock, because their prices rises so high that only very few desperate companies would buy. The point is, it's better to have the option to buy something at a high price…

Except this is not really what market makers do. The amount of liquidity they can provide by buying high and selling low is quite limited, not to mention it locks up a lot of capital in market price speculation with the significant risk of 'getting it wrong'.

Without going into motivation behind why ($$$), they will sell any share in demand at the prevailing market rate. As long as they later buy the same number of shares that they sold into the market, everything continues to work. By internalizing and batching orders, they can also exhert force on the price to ensure they don't lose on these 'market making shorts'.

For your example to be equiavlent, scalpers would need to sell parts that they don't have, which falls apart as an analogy as such games would fall apart quite quickly during a supply crunch.

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#309

Post by iseanstevens » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 11:47 PM UTC

yholio wrote: post #282

TeMPOraL wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way I see it, this makes sense in a hypothetical world of perfect theoretical models (you may recognize this world as being the one inhabited by frictionless, perfectly spherical cows). In this world, scalpers cause the market to price in "stickiness" - the more critical an item is to the buyer, the more they'll be willing to pay - so the supply ultimately gets allocated to the most desperate of buyers, for the p…

Scalpers perform a social service by rationing demand and ensuring availability. They don't eat the whole consumer surplus, rather, they must compete amongst themselves and the price you pay is the amount that makes client N+1 walk away if total supply is N. Some of the buyers will find that close to their margin, but others, for which the product is essential in very valuable (thus socially useful) goods or services…

I think that everyone I've met with this viewpoint has been an "intermediary" or one who profits from them.

Your thoughts on that?

Re: Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

#310

Post by doctorshady » Thu, Sep 30, 2021, 11:48 PM UTC

hristov wrote: post #71

caeril wrote: post #21

What I'll never understand is why carmakers don't take advantage of this situation and address a market that's been literally BEGGING for decades for a new product: A simple, basic car, with the ONLY electronic control being for: - Valve timing - Fuel injection - Oxygen and throttle - Emissions There's a market for budget and privacy oriented customers that all carmakers seem to have ignored for two decades now. Give…

First of all this "simple" car may end up being more expensive. Doing a lot of the things the old mechanical way requires a lot of labor and labor is expensive nowadays. Having to use turning wires and vacuum tubes for instrument clusters, and a bunch of pull wires for controls... Not only would that be expensive it would require skills and equipment long lost today. Oh and the wind shield wipers -- it is possible to…

I have an early nineties car like the parent describes; processor controlled fuel injection/valve timing/other core engine routines, and that's pretty much it with the exception of windshield wiper control and the radio. Practicality of making a car like that today aside, it's remarkably well built, and I have no problem believing it'll last at least another five years.