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Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

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Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#301

Post by roenxi »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #213
20after4 wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An intermediary like the mob, perhaps?

Do mobs do this? No, I meant a legitimate intermediary. If builders get to overcommit and then cancel on their customers, why shouldn't a customer be able to do it too? The intermediary would just offer a service of doing that for you - booking multiple companies for your construction project, waiting until the last second, and cancelling all but one.

> If builders get to overcommit and then cancel on their customers, why shouldn't a customer be able to do it too?

Why couldn't they? I'd imagine the only problem is it is an ineffectual strategy for a client. There is a lot of money involved, people are already doing everything they can think of to get the lowest price.

It is absolutely a dick move to lead someone on, but in the grand scheme of things a minor problem. Construction is a mess of problems.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#303

Post by bregma »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #134
tayo42 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

Yes! This has been my nagging question for years too. I make 5x the median wage in my county and my county has the second highest wage in the US. I see all these $M houses being sold left and right and I'd never feel comfortable buying a $M plus house. What gives?

Now is the time to begin the discussion on shorting real estate.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#305

Post by thedougd »

Fiahil wrote: post #188
teekert wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the markets are connected? If you have lumber, why sell it on the cheap to Europeans when you can get more from the Americans?

Shipping is so expensive, if you start shipping wood instead of sourcing it locally, then no wonder the price is going to go up even faster. What should have been a good alternative here, is to prevent/taxe massively exports of wood from EU to NA. Prices would have stagnated near a peak in NA and we would have kept our wood supply at a moderated price, here.

On the contrary, wood is shipped from the US to Europe for energy. This is Long Leaf Pine, one of the species commonly used for framing homes in the US.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/business/article238395173.... https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/26/biomass-ca...

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#306

Post by siva7 »

kebman wrote: post #167
hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

Why does the USA, The Land of the Free and The Land of Opportunity, have so much bureaucracy? Look, I know fire codes are important, and you don't want a building to crumble in around you, but... Seems the building codes in the US are unnecessarily strict. Is it power hungry bureaucrats or exploitation from contractors that has lead to it? And how can the people be given more liberty to build the way they want?

If you call that bureaucracy wait till you see Europe. The reasons are diverse but one main factor is reading less news about people dying in misconstructed buildings.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#307

Post by lotsofpulp »

dagw wrote: post #259
CraigJPerry wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always understood electricians did have to be registered and qualified https://www.competentperson.co.uk/ But I don’t know for sure.

My understanding is that anybody can do any type of electrical work (in homes), but certain type of electrical work needs to be certified. If your electrician isn't certified then a third party certifier has to certify the work after completion.

It is the same in the US. The actual labor can be done by anyone, but a licensed electrician has to be willing to accept liability for it.

It is quite a racket in some towns, as some electricians will have an “expedited” relationship with the town’s inspectors, so you basically have to hire certain electricians if you want your project to move along smoothly. The electrician will come by and walk through for 5 min glancing here and there and sign the paper for $10k or $20k or $30k depending on size of the project.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#308

Post by Lev1a »

pjc50 wrote: post #221
hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

> I just pictured a typical computer developer in a wet lot, with an unhappy wife. Have you heard of the TV programme Grand Designs ? It's just this over and over again. Sometimes the wife is pregnant, sometimes they're living in a caravan on site. https://www.channel4.com/programmes/grand-designs They're not trying to build anything as simple as a house, either, the "grand" part implies some mad architectural vision…

The only "Grand Design" I've ever seen and liked was Clarkson's "Grand Design Citroen" during their "Self-built Campervan Challenge":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7g08nwEmyY

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#310

Post by lotsofpulp »

blitzar wrote: post #258
cryptoquick wrote: post #235

> "Builders still have to clear their inventories of having purchased higher-priced lumber. It takes a while to clear the system," Lee said. "Yes, lumber prices from the mills came down dramatically over the summer, but that's unfortunately taken a while to reach the rest of the industry and consumers." > Lee said when it comes to new home construction, pricing is being complicated by ongoing pandemic-related supply…

I believe it. I am actually more worried about a deflationary spiral and an actual depression when the covid punch bowl gets taken away than moon growth for ever. Things were shitty before covid happened, and many were expecting a recesion in 2020 before covid existed, markets siezed up late q3 19, and needed help then. The world has since been living on vast quantities of high grade heroin dished out all over the wo…

Why would they US government not be able to print its way out? I assume the US will be able to as long as it has the preeminent military and a stable society and court system, with relatively high levels of trust compared to other countries.

If another similar size country becomes a more stable option, then I would be worried.

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