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Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

bbc.com

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Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#301

Post by bluGill »

davidrm wrote: post #278
bluGill wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chips also go out of production suddenly (with only a couple years warning - which isn't anywhere near enough time to replace them all). thus any major manufacture has stockpiles of chips that are no longer in production that need to last until production of the widget switches to new chips and have enough left over as spare parts for existing widgets.

> Chips also go out of production suddenly (with only a couple years warning...) No they don't, automotive semiconductors suppliers have an "obligation" to manufacture the component for at least 15 years, which makes managing the production output planning, spare parts etc. much easier. It's not like walking into your supermarket and finding out that your favorite brand of chocolate is no longer available. There are…

Some of them get that, and car manufactures have learned the hard way how important that is and so demanding it more. However there are still a lot of parts where they can't get the 15 year supply in anything that meets the other requirements.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#303

Post by caf »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #238
caf wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we take as given that "decent quality ICE vehicles are proven to last at least 320k km" , then after accounting for both vehicles that are less than decent quality, and vehicles destroyed due to accident, malicious damage or poor maintenance long before they reach that figure, then a fleet average of 200,000 km doesn't seem out of the question.

The same factors would seem to apply to EVs (except perhaps poor maintenance, but I am not knowledgeable enough about EVs to be sure), so for the purposes of comparison, I figured apples to apples would be comparing expected lifetimes of both assuming they are not abused or neglected.

It seems to me that they are using an expected lifetime (in the "expected value" sense) of 200,000 km for both types of vehicles.

If those factors apply equally and dominate the reasons vehicles reach EOL, then the expected lifetime not varying significantly between the vehicle types looks like a reasonable assumption.

Using the real expected lifetime taking into account the circumstances that tend to render a vehicle permanently unserviceable in the real world looks like the correct approach to determine how manufacturing costs are amortised over the vehicle lifetime.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#304

Post by silon42 »

andruby wrote: post #132
brobdingnagians wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe this is a dumb question, but does anyone still produce cars without chips? It's possible, and in the current environment it seems like it would be a major competitive advantage-- and might be more reliable in general.

I don't think it's possible. At least not road-legal in Europe. There must be hundreds of chips in a modern car: Engine, ABS, wireless key, cruise control, radio, audio, electric windows, gps, battery management, airbags, seat-belt check, sensors, climate control, ...

you could drop: wireless key, cruise control, gps easily

possibly climate control (not needed for short rides, a fan will do), maybe even radio (can always add later) and electric windows

I'd buy that car if it was cheaper... I'd need AWD though, trailer hitch...

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#305

Post by hef19898 »

clipradiowallet wrote: post #293
hef19898 wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, as an owner of a car from 1982 I agree. Requires a lot more preventive maintenance, e.g. oil changes every six months or 5-6k km, but runs perfectly fine when properly maintained. Also, I cam probably fix most issues with tools carried on board on the side of road. Enough to get to a proper workshop at least, I converted it to 2WD after killing a diff and drove for 200 km that way. If you cannot do that yoursel…

> Also, I cam probably fix most issues with tools carried on board on the side of road. I think that is the largest appeal to me of older cars. There are only so many parts that can fail, and they are all repairable with some time and hand tools(and maybe a Haynes manual!). (for people unfamiliar, a Haynes manual is a 3rd party manual customized for most makes/models of automobiles. It describes with pictures how to…

Yeah, the Haynes Books of Lies! Kidding, they are great. Also I found that original workshop manual are sometimes better. Fun fact, Haynes has an owners manual for the WW2 Panther tank.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#306

Post by evilduck »

MagicWishMonkey wrote: post #290
ramesh31 wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah yes, the Herbert Hoover approach.

I wonder how many of these people rant about how bad the government is while using GPS to navigate their way to work on government funded roadways.

On the DARPA derived internet, no less.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#307

Post by hef19898 »

OldHand2018 wrote: post #289
hef19898 wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, as an owner of a car from 1982 I agree. Requires a lot more preventive maintenance, e.g. oil changes every six months or 5-6k km, but runs perfectly fine when properly maintained. Also, I cam probably fix most issues with tools carried on board on the side of road. Enough to get to a proper workshop at least, I converted it to 2WD after killing a diff and drove for 200 km that way. If you cannot do that yoursel…

Depending on the brand/model, the odds are pretty overwhelming that your car from 1982 has 5 or more chips in it. The chip-ification of cars has been going on for a really, really long time.

Mine has a total of three 35 amp glass fuses. And dual carbs. I can confidently say there are no chips in there, excluding the radio and the rests of the snack variant on the back seat. Sometimes I'd love EFI, 17 l / 100 km just hurts...

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#308

Post by 1e-9 »

throwawaygh wrote: post #220
11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #113

If you have a taste for irony, my company makes critical components for semiconductor equipment. If we can't ship, equipment companies can't ship new equipment. If they can't ship, semiconductor fabs can't increase capacity to meet the demand and solve the shortage. We went line down last week due to shortage of a chip for our component. In reality, the shortage is somewhat self-inflicted, like toilet paper a year ag…

A negative feedback loop in semiconductor supply seems like a situation where a government should just step in manage the market a bit.

It is a positive feedback loop, not a negative feedback loop. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_feedback.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#309

Post by bumby »

Causality1 wrote: post #263
only_as_i_fall wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then what's the solution? Seems like the government is the only entity that can intervene if market forces are counter to supply chain resilience. This is partially the justification for agricultural subsidies in the US, so clearly there is precedent.

The nightmarish results of agricultural subsidies in the US is an excellent reason to not involve the government in the chip shortage.

Can you elaborate on your point?

While I agree there are definitively some downsides to ag subsidies, I think the real question is if the interventionist downsides are worse than the non-subsidized downsides. As bad as they are, I'm not sure that incentivizing unhealthy food is actual worse than famine.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#310

Post by eplanit »

throwawaygh wrote: post #220
11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #113

If you have a taste for irony, my company makes critical components for semiconductor equipment. If we can't ship, equipment companies can't ship new equipment. If they can't ship, semiconductor fabs can't increase capacity to meet the demand and solve the shortage. We went line down last week due to shortage of a chip for our component. In reality, the shortage is somewhat self-inflicted, like toilet paper a year ag…

A negative feedback loop in semiconductor supply seems like a situation where a government should just step in manage the market a bit.

What experiences with which government would lead you to believe that bureaucrats -- most of whom have never run a company nor made a product -- would be capable of "managing the market"?
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