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Pfizer and Moderna vaccines may produce lasting immunity

nature.com

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Re: Pfizer and Moderna vaccines may produce lasting immunity

#301

Post by mrj »

sjwalter wrote: post #298
mrj wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're spreading doubt about vaccines during a pandemic. Please stop.

One of the foundational, bedrock principles of bioethics is "informed consent". It is extremely, practically diabolically, unethical to lie to people about medical treatments prior to gaining their consent. This is literally bioethics 101. You are saying that I am putting people, or society, at risk simply by stating the simple, 100% true fact that these vaccines are not through FDA Phase 3 trials. The implication of…

I'm not arguing against consent, of course. The data is out there but you are misinterpreting it.

I just think you're taking issue with silly things, overblowing the risks and trying to make other people scared. That's seriously messed up.

Be truthful. You've decided not to take it no matter what. Now you're back-filling reasons not to. If you truly were about your ethics, you'd stop trying to make others afraid because you are.

Re: Pfizer and Moderna vaccines may produce lasting immunity

#302

Post by tunesmith »

braincat31415 wrote: post #288
Fomite wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a frequent anti-vaxx talking point that well predates COVID-19. In most outbreaks in highly vaccinated populations, most of the cases will be in the vaccinated. We see this for measles and pertussis all the time. The rate will be much lower though.

Just googling, Israel vaccination rate is 57.0%

Cool. Note that among adults, that rate would be higher. (For the apples-to-apples comparison with above.) Saw one headline that said 80% as of June 1st. If that's true, the original stat is basically equivalent to saying that 50% of the infections are among the 20% of the (unvaccinated) adult population.

Re: Pfizer and Moderna vaccines may produce lasting immunity

#303

Post by incrudible »

Pyramus wrote: post #269
incrudible wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Just to clarify - that is false. It isn't false, though the blanket "it was banned" statement lacks context: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford%E2%80%93AstraZeneca_COV... > It is generally advisable to get Moderna/Pfizer if they're available and you're a young woman but the chance of mortal thrombosis is around 5 per one million. No, the risk for anyone to develop a lethal thrombosis is roughly 5 per million. The…

Again, that is false. It's not even close, for women age 20-29 the risk of fatal thrombosis is 1:250k, while Covid is somewhere around 1:25k [1]. That's a whole order of magnitude. The risk/benefit ratio of AZ vaccine is only poor when the risk of exposure is very low [2]. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0/figures/2 [2] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

> It's not even close, for women age 20-29 the risk of fatal thrombosis is 1:250k

I have yet to find a source that gives the risk for that cohort.

> ...while Covid is somewhere around 1:25k

Even if it's an order of magnitude higher, the risk of a actually getting a PCR-confirmed infection is an order of magnitude lower.

Again, Germany: 28 deaths of women in that age group over the course of the pandemic[1], including all potential co-morbidities that may tilt the risk in favor of vaccination.

> The risk/benefit ratio of AZ vaccine is only poor when the risk of exposure is very low.

This is comparing "ICU admissions" against "Serious harms due to the vaccine". Utter nonsense. Why not compare mortality? Probably because it wouldn't look too good...

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105512/coronavirus-covi...

Re: Pfizer and Moderna vaccines may produce lasting immunity

#305

Post by sjwalter »

raphlinus wrote: post #281
timr wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not ignoring but these are very rare side effects. It's something for doctors to know about in order to help treat the unlucky. But I think we have different meanings of the word safe. The chances that a child will experience anything other than extremely minor illness from Covid is also very rare . The current numbers are teetering on the edge of implying that children are at more risk from the vaccine than from t…

Child deaths from Covid-19 in the US as of 6/24 [1]: 336 Child deaths attributed to vaccines [2]: 0. We can break this down further: 3 deaths from blood clots attributed to adenovirus vector vaccine, none in children. 616 reports of myocarditis[3], 393 confirmed, none fatal. [1]: https://downloads.aap.org/AAP/PDF/AAP%20and%20CHA%20-%20Chil... [2]: https://covid-101.org/science/how-many-people-have-died-from... [3]: h…

Far fewer kids have gotten vaccinated than have caught covid.

Re: Pfizer and Moderna vaccines may produce lasting immunity

#306

Post by timr »

raphlinus wrote: post #281
timr wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not ignoring but these are very rare side effects. It's something for doctors to know about in order to help treat the unlucky. But I think we have different meanings of the word safe. The chances that a child will experience anything other than extremely minor illness from Covid is also very rare . The current numbers are teetering on the edge of implying that children are at more risk from the vaccine than from t…

Child deaths from Covid-19 in the US as of 6/24 [1]: 336 Child deaths attributed to vaccines [2]: 0. We can break this down further: 3 deaths from blood clots attributed to adenovirus vector vaccine, none in children. 616 reports of myocarditis[3], 393 confirmed, none fatal. [1]: https://downloads.aap.org/AAP/PDF/AAP%20and%20CHA%20-%20Chil... [2]: https://covid-101.org/science/how-many-people-have-died-from... [3]: h…

If you think you can reduce this to the singular axis of "deaths", you're making a straw-man argument: we should absolutely vaccinate the children who are at risk of death, and fortunately, we can easily identify them, because it's not random. Essentially all child deaths from Covid have occurred in kids with serious pre-existing conditions.

Moreover, you're implicitly using a biased selection of data to make this argument. Want more children to die of myocarditis? Keep doing the same thing we're doing now. It will happen. We've been vaccinating kids for a fraction of the time they've been getting Covid.

I will say this for the benefit of others: regarding the CDCs numbers, in particular, they've used the incorrect counter-factual (no doses vs. two doses), and substantially mis-represented the rates of myocarditis in children.

https://medium.com/@wpegden/weighing-myocarditis-cases-acip-...

I've been mortified to see the CDC spreading this kind of mis-calculation so widely. It's simply unconscionable.

Re: Pfizer and Moderna vaccines may produce lasting immunity

#307

Post by wait_a_minute »

baq wrote: post #275
wait_a_minute wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And? That doesn't change that there are still things which are common sense and rooted in basic logic accessible to anyone. That Nature journal article is one of those things.

it was basic logic accessible to anyone that washing hands doesn't matter - it was, after all, just dirt and blood. it couldn't be proven that there was anything bad in dirt and blood.

So you think that Nature as a journal saying previous covid infection gives antibodies like the vaccines, is comparable to how primitive medical science once didn’t know you had to wash your hands before surgery?

Re: Pfizer and Moderna vaccines may produce lasting immunity

#308

Post by r00fus »

motohagiography wrote: post #209
r00fus wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's no denying it's a proxy for political positions What does that mean? Vaccination is not a political position in most other countries - it's just a policy goal at a national level. The goal would be to give local governments and businesses an approved way to understand who has received the vaccine so they could open up safely.

Again, what is the effect of a covid-unvaccinated person entering a room full of covid-vaccinated people? We need clarity on that message. Some people just aren't motivated by fear or shame, and so for a universal campaign to succeed, we need to appeal to those peoples' sense of reason.

Let's flip that around: what is the effect of an asymptomatic COVID sufferer entering a room of people (some of whom are vaccinated vs. some who are not)?

Children aren't currently eligible for any vaccine, and some immunocompromised people can't get the vaccine.

I disagree reason is somehow going to overpower the conspiracy machine. Rules and consequences speak directly to those too greedy to vaccinate or are petrified by fear of some conspiracy theorized takeover.

Re: Pfizer and Moderna vaccines may produce lasting immunity

#309

Post by incrudible »

baq wrote: post #295
incrudible wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Moreover, half of the deaths from the delta variant in the UK occured in fully vaccinated individuals: https://www.businessinsider.com/vaccinated-among-delta-death... I would see two main reasons for this: - vaccinations are far from "94% effective" in the age groups who need it the most (elderly with weakened immune systems) - deaths are over-counted (death from any cause within 28 days is counted as COVID death)

you conveniently miss the fact that if more people were vaccinated, delta wouldn't have spread this fast and perhaps wouldn't even come to be or would die out before it could spread.

How is that relevant? The question is: How effective are these vaccines really against that variant? In the real world, not in the lab.

If half the cases are in vaccinated individuals and only half the people are vaccinated, how can the vaccine be 80%-90% effective? That's a mathematical impossibility.

In the case of the deaths, it might be possible because the vaccinated are far older on average and likely over-counted.

Re: Pfizer and Moderna vaccines may produce lasting immunity

#310

Post by andybak »

YawningAngel wrote: post #216
munk-a wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it isn't - it's providing unified and clear guidance on vaccination. I'm up in Canada where vaccine hesitancy has been almost unheard of[1] and those who refuse to get vaccinated, excepting those that can't for medical reasons, are ostracized for their overtly selfish actions. The US, though, has a real problem with disinformation being accepted more readily than fact. I am fine with the theory of having a nuanced…

This has nothing to do with what I said. You are reacting to anti-vaccine views other people have that are not expressed in my comment. I said that _if_ Covid-19 infection confers equal levels of protection to vaccination then it is irresponsible to try and coerce people who have been infected to get vaccinations they don't need. I have said nothing about anything else. If you have issues with what those people have…

To be fair, your comment was rather nebulous. If you're going to comment on a topic that tends to polarize people, then it's wise to be slightly more explicit in one's statements.
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