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Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

reuters.com

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Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#301

Post by deschutes »

inter_netuser wrote: post #108
Retric wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the purely technical level, Bitcoin’s current transactions per minute heavily limit it’s utility. The original goal was solving micro transactions which crypto coins could do, they just need to scale to ~100 Billion transactions a day +/- orders of magnitude. Unfortunately, miners benefit from the current artificial limitations. Which demonstrates an inherent issue with crypto currency, miners and users have very…

base layer tps is low because it is designed for survival in most adversarial of conditions. It is a heavy duty tank, not a sport bike. Would you take M1 Abrams tank to race at Nurburgring? They have a different function. Lightninig/Payment channels, backed by the same baselayer security guarantees, can operate at literally unlimited tps. The only ceiling is how fast you can send packets back and forth. Miners do not…

What's stopping your adversaries from seizing hardware? Nothing? So the system relies folks playing nice in the physical world? The whole thing is a ridiculous fantasy with an asinine threat model.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#302

Post by __jem »

NovemberWhiskey wrote: post #277
pilingual wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for the disinterested take! It's refreshing to see this as a top comment when so often I see "Crypto makes me sick" which offers zero information and doesn't belong on HN. A few points to the repetitive comments I keep seeing: 1. Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme. Various cryptocurrencies operate in such a manner, but Bitcoin and Ethereum have value propositions: settlement and programmable money respectively.…

> Bitcoin pricing is on a log scale. Dropping to $36k from $50k is not a concern on this scale. What is that even supposed to mean?

This has to be one of the funniest financial things I've heard. "Uhhh, you know when your account dropped 50%? Actually that is only like 10% if you pretend it's a log scale."

Unfortunately for them, USD is not on a log scale and they'll be disappointed to discover that when they try to cash out.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#303

Post by notahacker »

bogota wrote: post #129
jmacd wrote: post #11

As an outside observer, who has no crypto holdings at all, but is very deeply invested in the public stock market with a heavy weight on technology stocks... this doesn't look like a crash to me at all. It just looks like some steam being let off and old investors cash out and new investors get more comfortable with how much and where to invest. I consider crypto currency as it is to be an elaborate Ponzi scheme (per…

You can criticize crypto currency’s for a lot but I still have never seen a good argument for it being a ponzi scheme. Can someone further this argument to one that wouldn't cover every investment asset?

If no speculators want to pay you for your stock, you'd have a stake in a stream of future profits or asset sales that company made simply from hanging onto it. If no speculators are interested in your bonds, the issuer is obliged to pay you coupon payments until it matures simply because you hang onto it. If nobody speculated on your property, there's a lot you can do with the land whilst hanging onto it. Even a dubious investment propped up by a lot of marketing hype like gold can make shiny things.

With Bitcoin, you have a cryptographic string. You can't make anything with it, it's not interesting to look at, it doesn't pay dividends or coupons and you almost certainly don't have any debt denominated in it. The only reason to hold it is the hope someone else will buy it from you for a greater price in future, and the only reason to believe they might want to do that is a claim that it's a "store of value" based entirely on the profits earlier holders made selling it to new ones.

It may not literally be a Ponzi scheme, but the dynamics are the same.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#304

Post by Grustaf »

sigstoat wrote: post #229
SavantIdiot wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SPY is up 50% since 2019 (pre covid crash). As someone partially invested in index ETFs, this worries me. Index funds aren't supposed to be nitro, they are supposed to be slow and plodding, and 10% annual is supposed to be huge. I think major indices should be nice, slow, inertial gains from ~6-7% annual, tops. Why? When at any point as an engineer or a scientist have you observed large exponential growth to be susta…

> When at any point as an engineer or a scientist have you observed large exponential growth to be sustainable in any context??? what on _earth_ do you think 6-7% a year is? that's exponential growth. > SPY is up 50% since 2019 (pre covid crash). [...] Index funds aren't supposed to be nitro, they are supposed to be slow and plodding, and 10% annual is supposed to be huge. I think major indices should be nice, slow,…

> > When at any point as an engineer or a scientist have you observed large exponential growth to be sustainable in any context???

> what on _earth_ do you think 6-7% a year is? that's exponential growth.

It's not "large" exponential growth, it's inline with the revenue growth of many large companies, so it's sustainable for quite some time.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#305

Post by ArkanExplorer »

sumedh wrote: post #210
paulpauper wrote: post #165

BItocin has among the worst risk-adjusted returns of any investment. I would not touch it. NASDAQ 100 and or fang portfolio way better.

Why not have 5% or less in BTC, if it does well, good for you, if it does not, its just 5% of your portfolio.

Because of the environmental and societal consequences of that action. It is a collossal miallocation of electricity, advanced manufactured goods, and the time and focus of intelligent people all around the planet.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#306

Post by throwaway894345 »

jmacd wrote: post #11

As an outside observer, who has no crypto holdings at all, but is very deeply invested in the public stock market with a heavy weight on technology stocks... this doesn't look like a crash to me at all. It just looks like some steam being let off and old investors cash out and new investors get more comfortable with how much and where to invest. I consider crypto currency as it is to be an elaborate Ponzi scheme (per…

> I consider crypto currency as it is to be an elaborate Ponzi scheme (personal view)

Off topic, but as someone with very little understanding of economics and no stake in cryptocurrency, I don't understand where "legitimate currency" ends and "Ponzi scheme" begins. I get that a Ponzi scheme is one which produces little or no value, and the majority of "earnings" are just wealth redistribution from the bottom of the "pyramid" to the top (and yes, I understand that pyramid schemes and ponzi schemes are different); however, I don't understand what legitimate value ordinary currency produces. Can anyone help me understand?

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#307

Post by andruby »

paulpauper wrote: post #225
sumedh wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not have 5% or less in BTC, if it does well, good for you, if it does not, its just 5% of your portfolio.

by that logic, why not just buy lotto tickets?

It's all about Expected Return. lotto's expected return is probably ~25% of the ticket price. You could look at past performance for BTC's expected return, and that would give something >100%. But as is always mentioned "past performance is no indication for the future"

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#308

Post by rawtxapp »

blfr wrote: post #27

Coinbase is down for me. Gotta give it to BTC: it's a great store of value. You cannot sell it in panic, the technology is protecting you from your own psychology.

Pretty much everything is down, eth decentralized exchanges are all clogged up too due to sky high gas fees. It's like a bank run.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#309

Post by Grustaf »

Mc_Big_G wrote: post #215
randomsearch wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Currencies are used to purchase things. If the purchasing power of 1 BTC changes dramatically, it matters.

You're assuming I care how much something costs in dollars.

Unless you're a Buddhist monk living on donated food, you have to.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#310

Post by midhhhthrow »

xyzzyz wrote: post #290
midhhhthrow wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where else should people invest their money? Stocks are extremely overvalued According to the buffet ratio And bonds/cash will soon be completely worthless by the time the gov and feds of the world are done with them Real estate is extremely difficult to buy and sell. Execution is hard. There’s a desperate need for a store of value, now more than ever (gov of the world are abandoning their obligation of providing a s…

Buy gold then, it is much less energy intensive to produce and hold.

Put everything in gold/ precious metals with no other diversification?

Gold has some funny business with its paper holdings because of the way governments lend it out.

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