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The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

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Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not hard to see Intel struggling in the future as AMD has produced a better architecture and Apple is starting to compete in the space.

Until Apple unlocks their chips (see never) from their own ecosystem and starts selling server chips and chips that other people can build systems with, they are not really 'competing' in the space.

That's if the ecosystem doesn't revert to a MacOS majority over Windows

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this ... > if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision Friendly advice: If you are going to be a consultant to industry, don't post comments like this. As someone who has been manufacturing tech products for over thirty years, my first reaction to…

That's a tale as old as time to anyone who weathered the great recession, and I can deeply sympathize. You've highlighted exactly the value and difference experience makes. People born at the crest of the wave can only take for granted their position until they have lived enough to reflect.

As I finished writing that comment (and I truly tried to be constructive as the author is young and inexperienced) I remembered another traumatic event of that era.

Every order we received was like precious molecules of much needed oxygen. We got this order from one of our resellers (we had about fifty all over the world at the time) for about half a million dollars in product. This needs to be in the right context: I had just taken out nearly all of the equity in my home to keep the business going and took out a bunch of cash on all of my credit cards, personal and business. I had already been to the hospital once due to stress and dehydration (I managed to do that twice in a year). A half million dollar order felt like a billion dollars.

We had product. We shipped it and awaited payment in thirty days. That's the other reality, it just takes time to convert components to money.

Almost precisely thirty days into this cycle FedEx freight shows-up with a shipment. Our reseller returned 100% of the order we shipped a month earlier. All of it.

I called the owner of the company and unloaded on him. At the end of the call I ended-up having to thank him.

You see, they were going down in flames, just as most of us were. He was at the point where the banks forced him into bankruptcy. He knew that within days people were going to descend on him to take inventory (and possession) of everything under their roof.

He sent us our hardware back because he actually care for us and did not want the bank to grab hardware he had not paid for. Like I said, I had to say "thanks" and wish him luck.

I can't remember if we ever got another order of that size between that point in time and when we closed our doors.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#303
This is what happens when the entire world relies on a few countries for manufacturing of computer chips. All manufactured goods should be produced and consumed in the same country. In theory, if the manufacturing is efficiently distributed the supply chain should be immune to the effects of a pandemic or even country specific issues.

I am still baffled that an electronic device produced in some province of China and shipped thousands of miles away (and incurring tariffs) is cheaper than keeping the manufacturing in the same country and shipping at a much shorter distance and not incur any import fees/taxes.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. I'm sorry, but if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision, this is just what happens, chip shortage or no. Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. Blaming a black swan…

> I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this ... > if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision Friendly advice: If you are going to be a consultant to industry, don't post comments like this. As someone who has been manufacturing tech products for over thirty years, my first reaction to…

[deleted]

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#305
post #303

This is what happens when the entire world relies on a few countries for manufacturing of computer chips. All manufactured goods should be produced and consumed in the same country. In theory, if the manufacturing is efficiently distributed the supply chain should be immune to the effects of a pandemic or even country specific issues. I am still baffled that an electronic device produced in some province of China and…

are you an 18th century economist?

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#306
post #277

Regarding cars: "Some carmakers are now leaving out high-end features as a result of the chip shortage, according to a Bloomberg report on Thursday. Nissan is reportedly leaving navigation systems out of cars that would normally have them, while Ram Trucks has stopped equipping its 1500 pickups with a standard “intelligent” rearview mirror that monitors for blind spots" I have an unpopular opinion, especially when we…

> Nissan is reportedly leaving navigation systems out of cars that would normally have them Wonder if this will begin a trend. The car navigation system is pretty worthless these days except if you find yourself unexpectedly out of phone range (I still carry paper maps, but these days many phone navigation apps allow you to pre-download your route so you don’t have to worry about being out of coverage).

Awesome. I won’t consider any vehicle with a touchscreen for controls. Everybody already has phone navigation, so why duplicate it with a craptastically different UX?

And then half the cars can’t sync your phone without a dozen menu selections.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#307
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Eventually stuff breaks, and fabs have to offline these older processes. Absolutely not. You just made this up.

The first is a statement of the third law of thermodynamics. The second clause is just obviously true. Go call up Fujitsu and try to order more of a chip they made for you in 1.5um in 1988.

[deleted]

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#308

Regarding cars: "Some carmakers are now leaving out high-end features as a result of the chip shortage, according to a Bloomberg report on Thursday. Nissan is reportedly leaving navigation systems out of cars that would normally have them, while Ram Trucks has stopped equipping its 1500 pickups with a standard “intelligent” rearview mirror that monitors for blind spots" I have an unpopular opinion, especially when we…

the only recent-ish safety feature i've found genuinely useful is the backup camera, which does aid low-ground reverse visibility. all the rest can go in the trash bin, especially lane-keeping warnings and auto-braking, which tend to reduce driver alertness and increase distractedness, the overwhelming principal cause of collisions and death (not speed or intoxication, as are commonly assumed).

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#309
post #305
post #303

This is what happens when the entire world relies on a few countries for manufacturing of computer chips. All manufactured goods should be produced and consumed in the same country. In theory, if the manufacturing is efficiently distributed the supply chain should be immune to the effects of a pandemic or even country specific issues. I am still baffled that an electronic device produced in some province of China and…

are you an 18th century economist?

16th c. surely.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#310
I recommend this read about the origins of the semiconductor industry in Silicon Valley: They Would Be Gods [1].

Making a chip has been something that has been done completely methodically since their invention (I wonder if the less disciplined or less methodical and messy shops simply went out of business).

Add decades of automation and scaling in every part of that process and we get to AMSL machines sold for hundreds of millions of dollars.

Making software can feel so ad-hoc in comparison.

I am also reminded of the Such Great Heights music video by Postal Service filmed in a clean room. [2]

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=71705

[2] https://youtu.be/0wrsZog8qXg

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