Won't know for sure until Apr 03 (The Day BLS releases the official unemployment rate for March) but this may very well trip the Sahm recession indicator, which has correctly predicted/detected every US recession back to 1950 (If it's been further backfitted I can't find the data). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT
I don't think you need a black magic/AI/fancy algorithm to tell whether there is a recession or not
3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
301–310 of 711 posts
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#302Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#303Earlier quoted context omitted.
Having worked on this type of application in the past they should find a new company to work with if they can't handle this traffic. We were handling hundreds of requests per second with ease 10 years ago. That was with MySQL and the app running on the same server. It doesn't take many resources to show the user a form, validate it, and save to a DB.
It doesn't take many resources to show the user a form, validate it, and save to a DB. I bet that's what the previous developers thought. What happens if you need to validate the form data against an external service that's coming and going due to the traffic spike? What if your database is rejecting transactions occasionally? What happens when your backup process locks all the database tables? How do you reject dupl…
When "hundreds of times the usual level" is still only 50 page loads per second, and 10 milliseconds of CPU per page would be extreme overkill for anything written in a reasonable way, it actually is straightforward.
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#304Earlier quoted context omitted.
Eh, I was speaking of the world. China lied about the coronavirus right from the beginning, when having two weeks of lead time worldwide could have saved thousands of lives. They arrested, silenced, and probably killed the doctors who blew the whistle on the cover-up. These are facts, not conjecture.
> our supply chain for essential pharmaceuticals and medical equipment farmed out to evil, duplicitous regimes like the Chinese state. There's a legitimate discussion to be had about medical equipment supply chains, but describing China this way does a huge disservice to that discussion. > They ... probably killed the doctors who blew the whistle on the cover-up. These are facts, not conjecture. That's literally an e…
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#305Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I like to think this event changes people's perspective on folks out of work in the US. Sure, just like the Depression did. And just like the Depression, a few years of boom times afterwards and that effect will be negated until the next similar event.
After the depression the US emerged as the global hegemon because of major shifts in power that happened as a part of WWII. The US was uniquely adapted to grow to be the global super power at the same time that European nations were taking a huge hit from the war. I suspect this will ultimately lead to China as the new hegemon. We're seeing key advantages to the Chinese state that the US cannot adapt to. Decades of p…
China's own population may be additionally disenchanted with a government unable to handle the situation without iron/hamfisted attempts to clamp down after ignoring the problem / sources for a long time.
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#306Earlier quoted context omitted.
On the contrary, setbacks for globalization may very well leave us better off...after all, globalization is one of the main factors why we're experiencing this deadly pandemic now, and have vast swathes of our supply chain for essential pharmaceuticals and medical equipment farmed out to evil, duplicitous regimes like the Chinese state.
> after all, globalization is one of the main factors why we're experiencing this deadly pandemic now Not so. Pandemics travelled around the world before globalization. The black death, smallpox in the americas, syphllis. This just increases the speed.
i hope many travel restrictions become permanent. ban cruises, make tourism difficult and expensive, cut off travel totally between the hemispheres. nature is being completely destroyed by human activity, this is an opportunity to reverse it.
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#307Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#308And this is just the start. While I think the US response to Corona was slower than the response in my country I feel the US is the only country that's seriously discussing economic repercussions and debating the medical experts. In EU (at least in my country) it's doctors running things and we are in "stop the pandemic at all cost". Everyone is in panic due to Italy situation. But doctors are only trained to see the…
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#309Earlier quoted context omitted.
Having worked on this type of application in the past they should find a new company to work with if they can't handle this traffic. We were handling hundreds of requests per second with ease 10 years ago. That was with MySQL and the app running on the same server. It doesn't take many resources to show the user a form, validate it, and save to a DB.
A bunch of armchair developers seem to have been summoned to tell the Federal government how to handle form submissions for an extremely security and privacy intense application using their fancy modern techniques. You are talking about comparing a basic web form with an application for unemployment benefits which must go into a federal tax database and be processed using a what I assume is a garbage mainframe system…
...okay, whatever you say.
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#310A year from now, will we look back and say it was worth the suffering for something 5x as bad as the flu? (based on Germany’s numbers, which are more fully accounting for those with mild symptoms) Shows how important testing randomly is, if the denominator is low because you are only testing those in the hospital, it looks like the second coming of the Spanish flu.