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Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

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Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#301
post #53
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can afford to install a bidet

I just installed a Tushy and let me tell you, it takes some getting used to. Especially when the water is very cold.

Should have gone with a Toto Washlet with water warmer. Cold water sounds like a bad idea for this purpose.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#302
post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For those saying the Fed is running out of ammunition, study what the Bank of Japan has done. Oh you mean the economy that has been stagnate for 20 years?

GDP per capita doesn't look stagnant: https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-per-capita

This is about 1.2% annual growth fro 2010 to 2018.

Over that time, the population has also shrunk from 128 million to 126.3 million [1], so the per capita isn't as relevant. Japan's total GDP has pretty stagnant since 1995 [2].

[1] https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/population [2] https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#303
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The incubation period is not 25-30 days. The mean incubation period is 5-6 days, range 1-14 days. There are case reports of it being far longer than 14 days: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-incubation/c... > A 70-year-old man in China’s Hubei Province was infected with coronavirus but did not show symptoms until 27 days later, the local government said on Saturday, meaning the virus’ incubation peri…

I mean is there a chance they were infected later? E.g. they thought source A caused it but in reality Source B ten days later did?

Maybe, but I just looked the locations in the article, and it looks like his home is in a town in a rural area [1]. Given it's a smaller area, maybe that constrained things enough that they were able to infer that he must have gotten it during his visit to Wuhan. I can imagine several scenarios with an elderly man that might have allowed them to pinpoint his infection to that visit [2]. However, there's just not enough detail in the article to reconstruct how the local Chinese government ruled out everything but his visit as the source of his infection.

[1] Shennongjia, Hubei. Looks like it's a "county" with about 75k people: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shennongjia

[2] For instance: he visited Wuhan, self-quarantined immediately after returning which limited his contact with others, then 27 days later developed infection. Every contact he did have was tracked and confirmed negative. That's total speculation, though.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#304
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The entire world is about to have a supply chain disruption that you can't stoke into recovery using central bank policy. The Fed rarely lowers interest rates without notice. They're spooked.

What if this supply chain disruption is short term, and the world returns to business as usual soon?

Then you drop rates only for the short term, and return the rates to their previous value soon.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#305

This is not solving the problem which is 1) the US is drastically behind in testing the population 2) it will not fix disrupted international supply chains 3) it will not fix liquidity crises at health insurers, hospitals, and life insurers and 4) it will not fix demand if people do not want to go shopping at any price because of non-financial concerns. I presume the Fed knows this, and what worse is this seems to be…

I agree with 1,2 and 4. However why shouldn't this help with liquidity problems for insurers?

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which makes 24 days an extreme outlier

Median and range really says fairly little about the distribution.

Well yes. Yet, since there are so many unknown variables it does not seem incorrect to assume the maximum entropy distribution - Gamma.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US is also moving into a demographic downturn, thanks to republican policies. Please don't post partisan political comments without a source. Edit: I appreciate the downvotes for kindly asking people to follow HackerNews' guidelines

Since when are sources required for basic observations on reality? Thanks to Republican opposition to providing first-world amenities to U.S. citizens (universal health care access, education access, childcare access, etc.) new generations of Americans are finding it increasingly difficult to start families. The evidence for this is multitudinous and moments away via any search engine...

Well, for starters it is against this site's guidelines

> Please don't use Hacker News for political or ideological battle. That destroys the curiosity this site exists for.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#308
post #176

China started with single digit cases, which then spread countrywide with tens of thousands of cases and many deaths. They quarantined cities, built 1000 bed hospitals in 10 days. And now after about 2 months they are seeing a slowdown. Why would this exact scenario regarding growth in the number of cases not play out in the US? The only difference is smaller population, but cities are dense here too. However, unlike…

> I don't think US and other countries will be able to quarantine entire cities.

Italy quarantined entire towns.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. And from what I understand, even if monetary policy does not directly solve virus or supply chain issues, it can make life easier for corporations loaded with debt (there are many) which might get into trouble as the economy deteriorates.

And I think many would argue, better to let these companies die and be outcompeted

Then again many would counter this by asking “outcompeted by whom in a global recession?”

For example: who is going to outcompete American Airlines/United/Delta if all international flights are grounded or flight restrictions get worse?

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#310
post #194

From what I gather after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there, the consensus on the street seems to be that this will result in a temporary market recovery followed by the continued deterioration of stock prices given that fiscal or monetary* policy can't really affect the real economy in the near term* i.e. if the supply chain is indeed impacted due to COVID-…

I see 3 things driving the market now. An overdue market correction, reasonable reaction to supply chain issues and an irrational reaction to the virus. A temporary boost to the market gives more time for the true long term impact to the supply chain to play out. It may turn out that the boost only gave a short respite but it may also turn out that it saved the market unneeded turmoil. A short term boost also gives p…

The 4th is a need to prop up the economy as much as possible through November.
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