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40% of Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense

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Re: 40% of Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense

#301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should really read https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2018/0... -- whether you agree with the author's politics or not her numbers are in fact right. There's no way to pay for the sort of expansive welfare state some people want solely by additional taxes on "the top 1%". There just isn't enough money there, it turns out.

Megan McArdle is a hardened libertarian sophist that blames poor people that die in fires for their own victimhood. https://theoutline.com/post/2303/megan-mcardle-has-a-lot-of-... However, to answer some of these points: 1) With respect to healthcare, investopedia has different numbers than the ones she cites: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/08061... Some of the savings we posit from healthcare…

> Megan McArdle is a hardened libertarian sophist

That's an ad-hominem attack that has nothing to do with the substance of this discussion. How about sticking to the actual numbers?

> 1) With respect to healthcare, investopedia has different numbers than the ones she cites

Let's assume the investopedia numbers are right (though it's not clear why their uncited administrative costs number is more authoritative than an OECD report on administrative costs). They claim 5% of GDP in administrative costs (25% of 20%). The drug numbers they mention as being "saveable" are $11.6 billion per year; that's .0006% of GDP. No other numbers are cited for drugs there. For defensive medicine, .03% of GDP. For the other items, no numbers are given.

So we could potentially spend about 5% of GDP less on healthcare; the other bits all look like rounding error on that. I used $19.39 trillion for the current annual US GDP, fwiw.

And just to be clear, the actual US federal government spending on healthcare is about $1 trillion a year, or maybe 5-6% of GDP, as far as I can tell. The remaining 14-15% of GDP is spent outside the federal budget already. If we're trying to put it in the federal budget that means raising taxes by 9% of GDP or so.

> Eliminate Imperialism - Save > $1T dollars by not fighting wars based on lies.

This would definitely be nice, but that doesn't seem to be what most people propose. Again, the context is people proposing "just tax the 1%".

> Tax the (Natural Person) Rich

Right, this is the thing under discussion: taxing "the 1%". The total income of the top 1% is something around 20% of total personal income according to https://www.epi.org/blog/top-1-percent-receive-record-high-s... and total personal income is around $16.5 trillion according to https://www.statista.com/statistics/216756/us-personal-incom...

So if we taxed away every single penny "the 1%" earn, that gives us 16% of GDP. That's assuming that there are no disincentive effects, emigration, etc, etc. Probably a bad assumption.

> Eliminate the Rentier Class

I'm not sure what your actual proposal is here, but at this point I suspect we're way outside the realm of the politically feasible or desirable. That said, can you quantify this, please?

> Tax the Tax Evaders

I would be very much behind this idea. Again, this is not the same as "just tax the 1%".

Anyway, last I checked US government spending (including all levels of government) was about 37% of GDP. If we add the very optimistic 16% we can get by taxing "the 1%" we get to 53%. That's still less than France or Finland or Denmark spend. Yes, we could nationalize healthcare if we did that, fairly easily. We couldn't do all the other things people want to do by "taxing the 1%".

I agree that if we radically restructured everything about how the government is funded and what we spend money on then there are a lot more options. But, again, what people tend to propose is "just tax the 1% and use that money for X, Y, and Z". And there's not enough money in that bucket to do all those things.

Re: 40% of Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense

#302
post #3

This makes it clear why our current capitalism doesn't work. The ruling class / rich and wealth people and businesses could extract more wealth out of the middle and lower classes than they do now, if the lower classes were more stable and secure. In the US especially, but nearly everywhere, there are hoards of people trying to lower or eliminate social services, basic science research, etc, with the dog-whistle clai…

I have yet to see a UBI proposal that provided non-trivial amounts of money and yet was not simply financially impossible. For example, there are over 300M (300,000,000) people in the US. To provide $1000 per year would require $300B. But that's less than $100/month. If you're homeless, that might be enough that you don't starve. But it's not enough that you can go to a doctor and eat. It's sure not enough that you c…

What if the government took back the land.. i.e. all land is owned by the government and all resources under the land. Then everyone pays land use 'tax' that covers everything, those who own buildings on land pay the tax, those who rent could be charged some to offset the tax. Also putting a max limit on CEO pay wouldn't hurt 200x employee average, everything over that including bonuses is taxed at 100%. -- There are ways to pay for everything -- look at how taxes for the top 10% have dropped since FDR's day - it used to be 90% now it's like 40'ish but CEO pay has skyrocketed to as much as 5000x the average worker.

Re: 40% of Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense

#303
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am and know many conservatives. I don't see any "poor hate," though I don't argue it doesn't exist. Rather, it seems conservatives get upset at the idea of an unlevel playing field, i.e. creating policies that favor one group over another. Well-intentioned as any given policy may be, we are opposed to crafting government rules or benefits that apply to one set of people and not another.

> Well-intentioned as any given policy may be, we are opposed to crafting government rules or benefits that apply to one set of people and not another. Conservatives talk about poor people as if it's a permanent attribute that can't be changed like "race". Poor is a tangible attribute. The programs which you fear so much are there to help people change that attribute. But I get the feeling that many of the so-called…

What I find ironic (as an exmormon/ex-christian now semi-agnostic person -- I still quasi believe there could be some sort of afterlife but the bible is dead to me.) is that those on the 'christian right' are more prone to push out the poor and neglect them those who are on the left more anxious to help and alleviate their pain points. -- I've known humanists, secular buddhists, atheists, and agnostics with bigger hearts and more care for the poor than the majority of God-fearing people regardless of faith.

One reason I stopped believing is because of all the hypocrisy I'd hear. Go to church on Sunday, leaders of the church officially deny supporting a political agenda, then they go about instituting anti-gay propaganda and fighting against legalizing marriage, or legalizing medical marijuana. Heck the LDS church is trying to ban the ability to record someone (like a Bishop) without them knowing, because they're afraid of the backlash they themselves might have (and so far are having with recent events).

Yet, I still admire Jesus and what he taught... the sad thing is.. there's no Jesus in most of America or they'd be fighting to cure the sick and the poor, they'd want universal healthcare and guaranteed basic income. Even Jesus forgave the Harlot and welcomed her at his table, so why not forgive the drug addict and give them a home regardless?

I say make GBI require you spend it on rent/mortgage -- to receive it you can't be homeless - you must have a physical address and only one check per address + x amount per person living in house, --maybe 2k per house/apartment, 500 per adult/child extra living therein.

This even helps the economy as poor people are most likely to spend the money locally instead of squirrel it away in a trust fund or investment.

If I had GBI, I'd quit my day job and finally launch a side-business or go freelance full-time, but I work 60 hours a week on salary for 80k as a developer because I have to pay the bills and my wife stays home with the kids. I could really use that money personally to just float by when freelance dries up, or my side project fails, and I start building the next one.

Re: 40% of Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense

#304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless someone is starving, spending more on food as income rises is discretionary. A proper food budget is stable, it should not change as someone earns more money. As someone who ate well on minimum wage, you’re not going to convince me low-income families can’t afford food in America if they’re properly budgeting.

I’m amazed that your personal experience was so representative that you don’t even have to consider that other people’s circumstances might be different.

As of 2012 food costs as a % of spending are the lowest in the US than anywhere else in the world. [0] During the Obama administration there was a massive increase in enrollment with the SNAP program. [1] Between government programs and charitable organizations I'd argue it is practically impossible for someone to go hungry through no fault of their own. You'd have to be unlucky on a cosmic level.

[0] http://www.ibtimes.com/us-spends-less-food-any-other-country... [1] http://www.trivisonno.com/food-stamps-charts

Re: 40% of Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense

#305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would push back on this bit about teenagers: > so they don't count as they aren't living on their own. I think it's a significant assumption to make that parents would be able/willing to cover a random $400 expense. The study did not specify a specific type of emergency expenditure, just that it was unexpected. I can fully imagine a scenario where parents would cover hospital visits for a bad case of the flu, but n…

This is kind of tangential, but I find it a sad commentary on our society when an abortion is considered a "fair unexpected expense" of a teenager. Abortion is 100% avoidable [1]. And regardless of your view on women's rights, etc. the fact is that a living human is killed in an abortion. "Don't have sex until you are okay with the possibility of getting pregnant" apparently isn't very popular, but the situation is e…

You’re right, this is tangential, and frustratingly derailing from the point I was making.

> the fact is that a living human is killed in an abortion.

This is absolutely the talking point of somebody pushing an agenda and represnting it here as a simple “fact” is specious at best.

Re: 40% of Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense

#306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, to exercise their rights as part of democracy.

You cannot exercise this right when there are no viable choices that will do so. Welcome to bipartisan politics with both sides not being socialist.

Then you can exercise your right to add to the viability of another party, create one etc.

Re: 40% of Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense

#307

I had a coach that when I'd ask about how to get out of tricky situations he'd often respond with something along the lines of "Bro, you f'd up a long time ago"... I don't think 40% is some magic number to begin hysteria. Neither is $400. Selling something to cover your expenses might be a blessing in disguise if the thing you sell is a liability in the first place (ex: a car you cant really afford). My observation o…

I bet a lot of the people with little savings would argue that they didn't F up, they just were born into a poor family. If you are poor, it's much harder to take risks and try to get ahead. You are always on the hook for your rent and can't just go ask your parent for a 0% interest loan to help you out for a couple months. Yes, a lot of Americans have bad financial habits and buy unnecessary things. But some of thes…

> My observation of America is that for a whole lot of people we F'd up a long time ago

I didnt say the individuals are the source of the issue. I'm saying as a society we screwed up by more or less creating this issue. Things like a lack of financial (and other) education, or failing to teach adequate data science in high school etc.

Re: 40% of Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense

#308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m amazed that your personal experience was so representative that you don’t even have to consider that other people’s circumstances might be different.

As of 2012 food costs as a % of spending are the lowest in the US than anywhere else in the world. [0] During the Obama administration there was a massive increase in enrollment with the SNAP program. [1] Between government programs and charitable organizations I'd argue it is practically impossible for someone to go hungry through no fault of their own. You'd have to be unlucky on a cosmic level. [0] http://www.ibti…

There’s a wide range of diets between “not literally starving” and “eating a nutritious and healthy diet.”

Re: 40% of Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense

#309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

upvoted. HN seems to have a silent conservative majority in posts like this =/

https://hn.algolia.com/?query=Hostile%20media%20effect&sort=... Given its size, the HN audience's ideology should fit a normal distribution just like the rest of society, but adjusted for the fact that it selects for people who work in tech. A "silent conservative majority" is unlikely on that basis.

active conservative minority overall. a silent majority is still possible when restricting to "posts like this", not the community at large.
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