>Poland, Denmark, and the Eastern/Baltic states are really lucky that they held their currency.Poland will have to join the Euro or leave, eventually - that's what the treaties they signed force them to do. Considering their relationship with the UK, I think the "leave" option is pretty realistic at this point.
> the EU is explicitly "anti-federation" at least on paper
No, the EU is about "ever closer union". The maintenance of individual national identities is clearly a "necessary evil". The long-term objective is to have a permanent, harmonised union where countries can resolve their differences without ever resorting to war - in other words, a federation. Chances are that this federation will never be as culturally cohesive as the US are, that it will actually be smaller than it is today (possibly even smaller than the current Eurozone), and that it will be less centrally-manageable than the US... but it will be a federation regardless.
Otherwise we'd have kept the Common Market we had in the '80s, with all the instability that the multi-currency setup brought. For all its faults, the Euro kept inflation and borrowing rates extremely low and stable for almost 20 years now. The minute we manage to disentangle public-debt markets from nationalistic sensibilities, we are golden.
> Yes but any US state will have more political pull over the the Federal government or any of its institutions
No, I don't think so. States do suffer a lot even in the US setup. As I said, the difference is that at the top you have someone who cares deeply about electoral colleges, especially in marginal states. In the EU there is nothing of the sort, so all pressure has to come from coordinated alliances between member states in the Council.
> If Janet Yellen would say to Alabama what the ECB said to Ireland or Greece
California, one of the most powerful states in the US, has been on the verge of bankruptcy for several years now. The FED certainly won't alter their monetary policies to suit Californian public debt, it's totally out of the question. You don't see in the US what you see in EU because they don't even entertain the idea that California should have its own currency. The FED looks at the US economy as a whole and does what it needs to do to keep the overall system afloat; if that means Alabama gets screwed, so be it. That's also what the ECB does, more or less.
In fact, EU states have a nuclear option that US states don't: they can leave. Greece could (and IMHO should) have left, but they came to the duel underprepared and eventually blinked first. Ireland is not in that position because it relies too much on its status as "tax haven cum operational base" for companies entering the EU market. So you can't leave and you can't keep being a tax haven, but if you play fair you can keep all you got and keep building from there.
> is also hardly representative of the actual elected governments of the various member states
I disagree there, I personally think the opposite is true. National governments hold too much sway on EU policies. The Council (i.e. governments) sets the agenda and then hides behind the Commission tasked to implement it. Some Commissioners are little more than puppets doing their governments' bidding (one McCreevy comes to mind, as well as one Dijsselbloem more recently...). EC governments nominate ECB figures then hide behind them when they have to make unpopular choices. They vote for directives in political contexts ("I give you this so you give me that") then feign ignorance when obligations come due.
I think EU institutions represent EU governments all too well. EU people, that's a different story - they have EuroParliament, and a fairly sane justice system, but could do with more representation.
> most EU states do not want federalization
Most EU states say they don't, but in practice they do. It makes life easier for everyone, keeps the peace, and protects the block from US/Russian/Chinese power. There will always be critics, but hey, that's life.
> if Ireland was setup as a tax haven like Luxembourg the EU wouldn't give a damn
Actually Luxembourg was in a pickle not long ago, because of their tax affairs. The difference is that Luxembourg will never be a competitor to large countries "where it matters", so it's given a bit of leeway; plus, its representatives are first-class and know how to play the game. The Netherlands is the other country with iffy tax arrangements, and they compensate again by playing the game (which means, they take the hit for France or Germany when there are hard decisions to make).
> it's an island with 5M people
Norway has the same population. Actually, Norway has 5M and Ireland 6+M.
> I don't understand what does naval access have to do with this argument
I'm just saying there are many ways to attract business.