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The joyless world of data-driven startups

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Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#31

Post by curiously »

This reminds me of Warren Buffet's approach to investing. It's better to be approximately right than precisely wrong. I fear that all we are doing with data is figuring out a precise way to fail instead of focusing on being right.

"But fail often and fast" the cliche goes, but what about the opposite, it should be true by simple negation of logic right?

"Win seldomly and slow", then suddenly collecting data on every useless piece of data becomes futile. You are not focused on winning and without the burden of speed and pressure to screw things up. You are absolutely calm and able to think things through.

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#32

Post by baddox »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #29
baddox wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's seems clear that any content that advances the art is better than a content doesn't advance the art. Perhaps that's true with all else being equal, but clearly all else isn't equal. > I guess that what he meant is that global maxima is better than local maxima (which is clearly true), and data-driven vision is a hill climbing strategy, thus locking you into a local maxima. My issue is that none of those exampl…

It's true in the sense that what makes technology and culture interesting is invention, not endless recycling. You're pretty much suggesting that using strong feedback to force culture to stay within a tiny area of the total possible cultural phase space is just as interesting as allowing chaotic exploration of the entire space. It's not just an argument against creativity, it's an argument against invention in gener…

> It's true in the sense that what makes technology and culture interesting is invention, not endless recycling.

That may very well be what makes technology and culture interesting to you. It's not necessarily what makes technology and culture interesting to everyone, or even a large portion of people.

> You're pretty much suggesting that using strong feedback to force culture to stay within a tiny area of the total possible cultural phase space is just as interesting as allowing chaotic exploration of the entire space.

I made no remarks even remotely suggesting any of those claims.

> That's the thing about global maxima - you only know that you've found a global maximum if you've explored the entire space.

That may be a useful statement for extremely small problem spaces. It's not useful for the problem space of films. There are a lot of different possible 90 minute long 1080p 24FPS 24-bit color films. Good luck performing a search over that problem space.

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#33

Post by curiously »

baddox wrote: post #7

> Sometimes it works. Sometimes it’s critical. But sometimes it fails, or results in unintended consequences that we may not notice for years. > Data-driven journalism gave us Buzzfeed > Data-driven music gave us X-Factor and Pop Idol > Data-driven movies gave us 25 Hollywood sequels planned for this year > Data-driven education gave us Key Performance Indicators and Teaching to the test These first three examples ar…

its funny how all of those shows are the ones that are hated by any one with a bit of intellect.

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#34

Post by walterbell »

Lazare wrote: post #24
alansammarone wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's seems clear that any content that advances the art is better than a content doesn't advance the art. I guess that what he meant is that global maxima is better than local maxima (which is clearly true), and data-driven vision is a hill climbing strategy, thus locking you into a local maxima.

> It's seems clear that any content that advances the art is better than a content doesn't advance the art. Better in what way? Let's say Movie A is a well loved blockbuster that millions of people see and enjoy. Movie B is a very mixed piece that isn't really enjoyable to watch, but "advances the art" in some key ways. Movie C is an even more well loved blockbuster than movie A, which even more millions of people wi…

B does not exist for the sake of C, which is profiteering from B.

B exists for D, which will be better than B.

Isn't this the history of progress in creative human activities?

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#35

Post by Double_Cast »

api wrote: post #8
baddox wrote: post #7

> Sometimes it works. Sometimes it’s critical. But sometimes it fails, or results in unintended consequences that we may not notice for years. > Data-driven journalism gave us Buzzfeed > Data-driven music gave us X-Factor and Pop Idol > Data-driven movies gave us 25 Hollywood sequels planned for this year > Data-driven education gave us Key Performance Indicators and Teaching to the test These first three examples ar…

The failure is the failure to generate novelty or adequately explore alternatives. Enough people might reliable go see 25 sequels, but none of those films will be memorable. None will advance the art of film-making. None will change anyone's life or mentality or affect the culture in any meaningful way. Being data driven means chasing the biggest, loudest signal in your data set. It means pandering to that signal, be…

> Being data driven means chasing the biggest, loudest signal in your data set.

This reminds me of how one time, a professor of mine was discussing a pie-chart. He pointed towards the smallest sliver and said "Know what that is? That's opportunity!" He was most interested in the smallest signal because it represented untapped potential. (IIRC the topic was related to replacing oil with renewable energy.)

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#36

Post by cwyers »

baddox wrote: post #7

> Sometimes it works. Sometimes it’s critical. But sometimes it fails, or results in unintended consequences that we may not notice for years. > Data-driven journalism gave us Buzzfeed > Data-driven music gave us X-Factor and Pop Idol > Data-driven movies gave us 25 Hollywood sequels planned for this year > Data-driven education gave us Key Performance Indicators and Teaching to the test These first three examples ar…

I struggle to call Buzzfeed "data-driven journalism." It's certainly SEO-driven, but I don't think I would call it journalism, first off.

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#37

Post by anigbrowl »

baddox wrote: post #7

> Sometimes it works. Sometimes it’s critical. But sometimes it fails, or results in unintended consequences that we may not notice for years. > Data-driven journalism gave us Buzzfeed > Data-driven music gave us X-Factor and Pop Idol > Data-driven movies gave us 25 Hollywood sequels planned for this year > Data-driven education gave us Key Performance Indicators and Teaching to the test These first three examples ar…

People love candy and ice cream, but that's not a good reason to stop eating vegetables. You're overlooking the fact that it's quite easy to condition people's wants, and there's a compelling economic incentive to feed people the cultural equivalent of refined sugar regardless of how it affects their long-term health.

I don't think all this sort of stuff is bad. I'm looking forward to the next Avengers movie, in fact I love a good superhero yarn. At the same time, it's a sad fact that big-budget sequels crowd out investment in small ($10 million or less) indie movies, and there's general downward pressure on budgets at the low end of the market.

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#39

Post by anigbrowl »

Lazare wrote: post #24
alansammarone wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's seems clear that any content that advances the art is better than a content doesn't advance the art. I guess that what he meant is that global maxima is better than local maxima (which is clearly true), and data-driven vision is a hill climbing strategy, thus locking you into a local maxima.

> It's seems clear that any content that advances the art is better than a content doesn't advance the art. Better in what way? Let's say Movie A is a well loved blockbuster that millions of people see and enjoy. Movie B is a very mixed piece that isn't really enjoyable to watch, but "advances the art" in some key ways. Movie C is an even more well loved blockbuster than movie A, which even more millions of people wi…

You're retroactively adding new premises (eg that Move C is crap) in order to support your conclusion. Step back from your post for a moment and you'll see it's based on a logical fallacy.

Re: The joyless world of data-driven startups

#40

Post by justizin »

baddox wrote: post #7

> Sometimes it works. Sometimes it’s critical. But sometimes it fails, or results in unintended consequences that we may not notice for years. > Data-driven journalism gave us Buzzfeed > Data-driven music gave us X-Factor and Pop Idol > Data-driven movies gave us 25 Hollywood sequels planned for this year > Data-driven education gave us Key Performance Indicators and Teaching to the test These first three examples ar…

> A ton of people love all of those things.

This is exactly the problem with completely data-driven decisions.

First, do people really love those things, or given an ever-increasing trend toward those formulaic things, are those the particular formulaic things they have chosen?

Obviously, it's important to use whatever data is available, but isn't the entire notion of a startup to throw away _ALL_ of the prior data and do something that entrenched players won't tend to risk? I think the idea is not to throw away what's fundamentally important to whatever you do because numbers.

BuzzFeed is doing much better at _terrible_ and mostly worthless journalism than they would if they hadn't invented, or at least largely propagated, clickbait, sure. Will they ever, possibly, following this course, reach the value of real journalists? They're a distraction.

Sometimes the data just tells us what the easiest ways to distract people are, but following that principle alone is creating a world with lots of cruft and very little actual value.

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