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China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014

wsj.com

31–39 of 39 posts

Re: China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014

#31

I wish HN would ban paywalled article links.

I also think that would make sense. Paywalling is a legitimate business strategy amd I don't fault these companies for wanting to get paid for content creation. However, HN is an aggregator so many people can't view an article like this. If a paywall article is posted, it would be nice to have a link to a plain text version or alternate link. I think this would be a good compromise.

[deleted]

Re: China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014

#32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also think that would make sense. Paywalling is a legitimate business strategy amd I don't fault these companies for wanting to get paid for content creation. However, HN is an aggregator so many people can't view an article like this. If a paywall article is posted, it would be nice to have a link to a plain text version or alternate link. I think this would be a good compromise.

Isn't your good compromise just US Copyright violation by another name?

Not really, many online publishers allow direct access to shared links as an enticement to potential subscribers, it's like turning your reader base into your sales force.

Re: China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't your good compromise just US Copyright violation by another name?

Not really, many online publishers allow direct access to shared links as an enticement to potential subscribers, it's like turning your reader base into your sales force.

I never knew this, cool! I think HN mods should negotiate some sort of deal so the links can be non-paywalled if you are coming through news.ycombinator.com.

Re: China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014

#34
post #24

"Mr. Tao informed the audience that the capital flight from China in December alone amounted to $20 billion, and that was just from official channels. The true amount could be four times greater." So this bureaucrat just committed career suicide by admitting this.

Not really, think again. China needs to convert their $4T into "real value" sooner or later. Rather sooner. Various official statements over the last year indicated as much: "after decades of accumulating dollars and treasuries, we have concluded that it would be wiser to reverse course and start spending them". This presents them with two problems, the danger of being accused of dumping dollars (aka of agressive cur…

Interesting speculation. Anecdotally, I've heard that in some H1B situations where real estate is purchased, a % of the sale price is given back to the Chinese government.

Re: China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014

#35
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And how's the weather where you are? I took my dog to the dog beach this morning. Sunny and 12* ABOVE. We had one day of snow this year. And the "wet coast" is really a myth. Seattle gets rain, but Vancouver is tucked behind Vancouver Island and is much drier. In all seriousness, the real estate market is driven by people with money, the investor class. They are older and do not necessarily work, or they work interna…

> And the "wet coast" is really a myth. Nice try but Vancouver really is wet and miserable most days in winter. I know because I lived there for 5 years. Sure winter is more bearable than Halifax or St John's but that's not saying much. Now I live in Melbourne and just laugh and point to the banana tree in my backyard when people complain about winter here.

if we're going with the Chinese investors are inflating real estate prices theory - most Chinese people would probably find the cold winters in the rest of Canada a deal breaker, whereas the rain in Vancouver is a mild inconvenience. If you don't want to go to the US, Vancouver Canada and Australia are at the top of the list - Vancouver doubly so because of the large native Chinese population.

Personally I think the foreign investment segment in the Vancouver real estate market is a bit over-reported. A large part of the demand here comes from East-Asian immigrants (30% of the population) who will buy a home despite renting being a better fiscal option. This is reflected in the gap between ownership and rental prices.

Re: China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014

#36
post #3

I know where it's going. My neighbourhood in Vancouver BC is covered in "for sale" signs. There are minivans full of Chinese investors paroling the sidestreets looking for houses. The downside is that, by my count, more than half of the houses are vacant or under construction. I smell bubble.

The Chinese could bleed $100B/yr into the west coast of North America for years and not blink.

That's cash, not derivatives, in those minivans. They're settling here, unless you think they're going to fall in love with Detroit or Wichita.

This is the new normal.

Re: China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The typical vancouverite response (annoying) is "oh but our prices will never fall, we live on the best god damn city in the planet, just look at all this foreign demand for our real estate, we are in a bubble you say, you eggheads have been crying about it for the past 15 years and look it hasn't happened so it never will, this time it's different " "this time it's different" - japanese real estate bubble. "we are i…

And how's the weather where you are? I took my dog to the dog beach this morning. Sunny and 12* ABOVE. We had one day of snow this year. And the "wet coast" is really a myth. Seattle gets rain, but Vancouver is tucked behind Vancouver Island and is much drier. In all seriousness, the real estate market is driven by people with money, the investor class. They are older and do not necessarily work, or they work interna…

"And the "wet coast" is really a myth. Seattle gets rain, but Vancouver is tucked behind Vancouver Island and is much drier."

This is just blatantly false, and easy to check. Vancouver average annual rainfall is around 45 inches. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seattle#Climate Seattle average annual rainfall is around 37 inches. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seattle#Climate Vancouver also gets more snow. I guess Seattle is "tucked in" behind the Olympic Peninsula better than Vancouver is behind Vancouver Island.

Re: China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014

#38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The typical vancouverite response (annoying) is "oh but our prices will never fall, we live on the best god damn city in the planet, just look at all this foreign demand for our real estate, we are in a bubble you say, you eggheads have been crying about it for the past 15 years and look it hasn't happened so it never will, this time it's different " "this time it's different" - japanese real estate bubble. "we are i…

And how's the weather where you are? I took my dog to the dog beach this morning. Sunny and 12* ABOVE. We had one day of snow this year. And the "wet coast" is really a myth. Seattle gets rain, but Vancouver is tucked behind Vancouver Island and is much drier. In all seriousness, the real estate market is driven by people with money, the investor class. They are older and do not necessarily work, or they work interna…

Old data. I don't want to start a climate change debate, but since the rain of 90s Vancouver is very different. Extremely dry summers are now the norm.

http://globalnews.ca/news/754673/july-2013-the-all-time-drie...

Take a look at these images from January and December of last year. It is very hard to believe canada can be like this in winter. (I just grabbed a couple from my phone).

http://i.imgur.com/Kv9y42n.jpg http://i.imgur.com/4bTEfbr.jpg

Re: China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in 2014

#39
I am reading this book 'The Dollar Trap: How the US dollar tightened its grip on global finance' [1], where economist Eswar Prasad explains how money flows into the US from around the world even when troubles originate in U.S financial markets.

[1] http://thedollartrap.com/

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