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IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

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Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#31
post #27
post #18

I think IBM should stop selling the ultra crap software that is selling right now like Websphere commerce and all the crappy enterprisey stuff. They really need something good to change and if layoffs are for the better, it's probably worth trying. If the plan is to keep this stuff going, it's gonna be bad.

Yes the most interesting revelation in Cringely's rumor was that IBM made software. Let's be honest: An big IT product is about 25 programmers and 25 diverse people (incl marketers, designers, accountants) working for 3-10 years. With this you make a GitHub, a Word, an IE. IBM could be owning the planet today. But no, they're in the business of hotels, golf, and conferences.

They do make many billions profit on software every single quarter. Who cares if the market is not very sexy?

If you think there's only 25 people working on Word, I think you're off by an extremely large margin.

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#32
post #18

I think IBM should stop selling the ultra crap software that is selling right now like Websphere commerce and all the crappy enterprisey stuff. They really need something good to change and if layoffs are for the better, it's probably worth trying. If the plan is to keep this stuff going, it's gonna be bad.

Unfortunately I think the crappiness is by design- easy to use doesn't sell support and consulting hours.

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#34
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He said "By the end of February all 26 percent will be gone"

Ooh, missed that. Well, i'd bet he's wrong then. They'll be gone, just not by end of february.

Why are you so gleeful predicting doom for IBM?

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ooh, missed that. Well, i'd bet he's wrong then. They'll be gone, just not by end of february.

Why are you so gleeful predicting doom for IBM?

I'm not predicting doom, i'm predicting that given their revenue is dropping for the past 11 quarters, and they can't they will cut the number of people to match the size of the market in most places, since they don't believe they can grow those markets.

They don't need 400k people if their future is providing cloud and cloud services, and not tons and tons of services contracts in every walk of life etc

Given they've taken restructuring charges between 600 million and 1.5 billion the past few years (which is about 7000-20000 people a year), why do you think they are going to magically reverse course?

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#37
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think for an error of this magnitude some kind of apology would be in order. If he can't manage that he's lost a lot of credibility.

I don't feel that an apology cuts it anymore. We have so many sources of complete garbage. Imagine if this was what caused the significant drop of the IBM stock price (on the 21st) Could we create a blacklist of sources that just aren't credible that we can just filter them out? e.g. Sky News. Perhaps negative weighting won't work; perhaps we should add a credibility weighting for respected works (web sites, or autho…

That, most likely, was the point. A few months ago, Marc Adreessen credited the proliferation of this kind of market manipulation with the demise of the IPO. In his view, a company as well established as IBM can roll with punches like these, but (for reasons he describes in some detail) fledgeling companies can't. So they stay private until they're big enough to fend off the hedgies who make money by planting and fanning rumors like this.

The macro-problem is that companies are past the steep part of their growth curves before they're public, meaning that the benefits of economic growth flow largely to a small number of pre-IPO investors, and not the broad range of people whose 401(k) plans depend on growth in public markets.

Anyway, the entire interview if really good, and crap like this IBM rumor indicates that he's got a point.

http://www.vox.com/2014/6/26/5837638/the-ipo-is-dying-marc-a...

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#38
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His rumor is probably a multi-year plan rather than a one-time event.

He said "By the end of February all 26 percent will be gone"

It's not the end of Feb yet so how do you know he isn't right? Also there is still a chance they plan to get rid of a large number but are avoiding the negative PR but staggering it.

Re: IBM says 'several thousand' layoffs on the way

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are you so gleeful predicting doom for IBM?

I'm not predicting doom, i'm predicting that given their revenue is dropping for the past 11 quarters, and they can't they will cut the number of people to match the size of the market in most places, since they don't believe they can grow those markets. They don't need 400k people if their future is providing cloud and cloud services, and not tons and tons of services contracts in every walk of life etc Given they'v…

IBM has re-invented itself more times than you remember. They did it when mini computers came along, when the PC hit (an own goal if there ever was one), they did it when the Internet came of age (and when everybody else was still playing catch-up or even ignoring it) and I'm pretty sure they'll be able to survive the transition to the next phase of things (the cloud or whatever is fashionable). IBM is about as stable as they come, they do IT in whatever form it comes. When it was big iron they rolled their own hardware and software to go with it, now it is Linux, so they'll do Linux (on mainframes if you want it), if that changes, they'll change again.

I'd write off a lot of companies long before I'd write off IBM and while they're laying off in one set of divisions they're hiring in others.

So they're not 'magically' going to reverse course, they are gradually going to change course, like they've always done (and like every other supertanker does, move too fast and you'll break things for real, this is not a start-up).

Each and every one of those changes was heralded as 'the end of IBM'. They definitely messed up during the OS wars, I'll give you that but for the most part they rode the waves better than just about any other tech company that has been around this long. Rumors of IBMs imminent demise are most likely vastly exaggerated and any prediction of lay-offs should be henceforth accompanied by some evidence or I'll simply not buy them any more, especially when they entail 100K+ lots of employees.

How are Sperry, Control Data, Data General, Burroughs, SGI, Cray, DEC and a whole slew of others doing these days?

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