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Ask YC: Will there really always be room for more successful web startups?

news.ycombinator.com

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Re: Ask YC: Will there really always be room for more successful web startups?

#31

Post by nostrademons »

imgabe wrote: post #29

Each individual mainstream user might have a finite number of needs, but the number of needs of users in aggregate is effectively infinite. I agree that I'd rather use 5-10 great apps than 40-50 marginally useful apps, but why do you think the 5-10 apps you find most useful would be the same 5-10 apps someone else does? No one webapp has to appeal to the entire market to be successful, it just has to appeal to enough…

Also - the cost of servicing that marginal niche is now so low that it's economically feasible to build a solution just for them. To use the kitchen example, most people want gas & electric ranges, but a few might want eco-friendly solar-powered cookware. This product doesn't exist (to my knowledge), but it's because the cost of designing, tooling up, and manufacturing it is above what people are willing to pay. In software, a niche solution could probably be coded up by just a couple programmers. It'd have more economic value than the code they wouldn't produce at their day jobs, so it becomes economically feasible.

Re: Ask YC: Will there really always be room for more successful web startups?

#32

Post by juanpablo »

brlewis wrote: post #18

Get the kitchen analogy out of your brain. Kitchen needs are different from information needs. What information do people want to get? What information do people want to spread? That universe is a lot bigger than your kitchen. Any time you encounter pain or desire (yours or somebody else's) that's information-related, you've stumbled upon the opportunity for a web and/or mobile startup. When you meet that need, peopl…

The Universe IS my kitchen.

Re: Ask YC: Will there really always be room for more successful web startups?

#33

Post by tocomment »

cosmok wrote: post #12

Well it is not easy to penetrate established markets. Even Google will have trouble drawing away traffic from Naver in South Korea. One thing that I am experimenting with is porting popular web-apps in the developed world to the developing world and that has been working well for me so far.

That sounds neat. I'd like to hear more.

Re: Ask YC: Will there really always be room for more successful web startups?

#34

Post by pchristensen »

hhm wrote: post #26
ivankirigin wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

market = need

No. I can have needs I'm not going to pay for. Or I can have needs whose solutions are too expensive. Or many needs can come from people who have not too much money so not all needs are an interesting market.

That means that someone who can reduce the cost of meeting that need has a market and can be successful. Voila!

Re: Ask YC: Will there really always be room for more successful web startups?

#35

Post by pchristensen »

luis wrote: post #16
pg wrote: post #4

People's wants seem unlimited, at least in the near term. If you accept that, the only limitation on the number of web startups is how many needs can be satisfied by software. (The web is just the current default software platform.) And since everything is turning into software nowadays, it seems likely that the infinite demand for new stuff translates into an infinite demand for new software.

Not sure whether people's wants - and needs - are unlimited in the short term. In fact they are probably limited by what people themselves perceive is a want or a need, what they know and experience, and their ability to assimilate and absorb new technology. In the long term though...

That's where market-making comes in. People didn't know they needed to search the web until they found out it was easy. They didn't know they needed a computer they saw games, spreadsheets, etc. They didn't know they needed a dishwasher until they saw this amazing machine that washed your dishes. People (the market) might not think up the things they want, but they sure know if they want something when they use it.

Re: Ask YC: Will there really always be room for more successful web startups?

#36

Post by pchristensen »

nostrademons wrote: post #31
imgabe wrote: post #29

Each individual mainstream user might have a finite number of needs, but the number of needs of users in aggregate is effectively infinite. I agree that I'd rather use 5-10 great apps than 40-50 marginally useful apps, but why do you think the 5-10 apps you find most useful would be the same 5-10 apps someone else does? No one webapp has to appeal to the entire market to be successful, it just has to appeal to enough…

Also - the cost of servicing that marginal niche is now so low that it's economically feasible to build a solution just for them. To use the kitchen example, most people want gas & electric ranges, but a few might want eco-friendly solar-powered cookware. This product doesn't exist (to my knowledge), but it's because the cost of designing, tooling up, and manufacturing it is above what people are willing to pay. In s…

Actually, it's probably because no one knows how big that market was. If you produced market evidence that there were 1 million people that would buy a solar powered stove in the next year, there would be product rolling off assembly lines in less than 6 months.

Read Seth Godin's book Permission Marketing if you want to learn about market creation and demand-driven design.

Re: Ask YC: Will there really always be room for more successful web startups?

#37

Post by pchristensen »

cosmok wrote: post #12

Well it is not easy to penetrate established markets. Even Google will have trouble drawing away traffic from Naver in South Korea. One thing that I am experimenting with is porting popular web-apps in the developed world to the developing world and that has been working well for me so far.

Me too, that sounds awesome!

Re: Ask YC: Will there really always be room for more successful web startups?

#38

Post by pchristensen »

Also, don't just limit your thinking to consumers. Consumers might need the next huge improvement to consider switching. Something to replace Google would probably need to give you a well researched and balanced report on your query, as opposed to just a fairly accurate link to something someone said somewhere. That's a HUGE leap.

Businesses on the other hand (rational ones anyway) will buy anything that exceeds a certain ROI, provided it meets certain requirements. There are so many ways to do this, but they aren't technologically sexy in the way consumer startups are. For instance, find a way to improve measuring their ROI! Then they're not guessing, you can point to exactly how much money they'll make/save. Improve something by 15%, then multiply that savings times the thousands of corporate users for one buyer. Viola, an upgrade license. Joel Spolsky is a master of this: see http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/fog0000000052.html There will always be more of a market for things like this.

Re: Ask YC: Will there really always be room for more successful web startups?

#39

Post by optimal »

I think the Web may be less like the kitchen, and more like television. Shows come and go every year, so there will always be a need for new ones.

In an attention economy you're fighting for eyeballs. And there's a smaller group that's always looking for what's new and different. If you want to pursue this demographic, and the larger, lagging crowd behind them, then you have a chance at capturing attention.

I share many of your concerns, and personally use very few Web applications--basically maps and mail. I often ask the same question: what can I build?

Perhaps it's better to choose a pre-existing category/market and try to win through better execution. I also think success is more likely when building software as a product instead of a free service.

Re: Ask YC: Will there really always be room for more successful web startups?

#40

Post by akkartik »

hhm wrote: post #28
ivankirigin wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is an "interesting market"? It's a non distinction. If you aren't going to pay for a solution to a need, then it isn't a need. If you can't afford it, that is a technological issue. There is no such thing as someone with "too much money". [edit: there are certainly things that money can't buy. Though I'm sure you can mail-order a lovely bride, a Zen Buddhist sensei fresh from Japan, and adopt some children in ne…

Sorry if I didn't express myself correctly. I'm not a native English speaker. I say: you can have a need, but you can have not enough money to pay for a solution to that need. For example, you can say that as there is so much poverty, there is a big need for food so there is a big market for food right? But probably, the sector that is suffering poverty wouldn't make an interesting market, as would not have money to…

The two of you have a disagreement, but it's not here, this is just conflicting names for ideas. Putting words in your mouths:

You: if people don't know how to make something cheaply enough it's not a market.

Ivan: it could be a market if you solve the technological problem of making it cheaper.

You: making food cheaper isn't a market because the poor have no money.

Ivan: making food cheaper isn't a feasible market because nobody knows how to make it happen.

There, now you can return to the interesting question, continue arguing about what fraction of the needs you can think up are technologically feasible :)

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