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China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market

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Re: China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market

#31

Post by adventured »

a_c_s wrote: post #22
lkrubner wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By that line of reasoning, India's stock market should be the same size as China's, and both China and India should have a stock market that is 4 times bigger than the USA. But that is not going to happen.

As developing economies 'develop' their per-capita GDP approaches that of developed economies. Therefore, as this happens, the size of an economy becomes more proportional to the population size. Therefore over the very long term that absolutely should happen.

Not quite. Your position rests on the premise that China can bring its population up to developed status (something on par with the US, Britain, France, Germany, Japan etc), ditto for India. That is very unlikely to be feasible, given the truly massive manufacturing, consumption, exports, energy, resources, etc. that it would require to boost China's GDP to ~2x the size of the entire rest of the world just to bring their median income up to that of the US.

Re: China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market

#32

Post by DominikR »

adventured wrote: post #30
w1ntermute wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you even bother to look at the statistics before making such an ignorant comment? The fertility rates in countries like Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore are much lower than in Western Europe.

That's false. Much of Europe is in the same exact demographic spiral. Europe as an overall, is in worse shape than is Asia. Most of the countries making up the bottom of the low fertility club, are in Europe. Births per 1,000 people Japan: 8.07; Singapore: 8.10; Germany: 8.42; Slovenia: 8.54; Taiwan: 8.55; Austria: 8.76; Greece: 8.80; Italy: 8.84; Bulgaria: 8.92; Hungary: 9.26; Romania: 9.27; Hong Kong: 9.38; Portuga…

Without immigration Europe would have already experienced a demographic collapse.

A society needs on average a fertility rate of 2.1 children born per female.

My country (Austria) has a fertility rate of 1.44, Germany even has a fertility rate of 1.38. Without immigration the fertility rate would be at 0.9 - 1.1.

This would be equal to or lower than the worst fertility rates the Russians experienced after the fall of the Soviet Union (1.1), when even life expectancy fell by 10 years on average.

Today with much better socioeconomic conditions Russias fertility rate has risen again to 1.8. That should give a clear indication of how important socioeconomic conditions are for reproduction.

Re: China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market

#33

Post by moogleii »

w1ntermute wrote: post #3

I wonder if the rest of the Sinosphere will eventually suffer from the same sort of economic malaise as Japan, once they reach first-world status. They all have hierarchical cultures that make creative destruction difficult. So while they can quickly catch up to the West through efficient social organization, they can't break them down and replace them with something better.

Huh? Chinese culture (whether we're talking about the losers of the civil war or the victors) is not nearly as hierarchical as Japan's (or Korea's).

Re: China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market

#34

Post by GFK_of_xmaspast »

w1ntermute wrote: post #3

I wonder if the rest of the Sinosphere will eventually suffer from the same sort of economic malaise as Japan, once they reach first-world status. They all have hierarchical cultures that make creative destruction difficult. So while they can quickly catch up to the West through efficient social organization, they can't break them down and replace them with something better.

On the other hand, recorded history.

Re: China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market

#35

Post by CyberDildonics »

w1ntermute wrote: post #24
enupten wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By that logic, Western europe's low birth rates are due to ... ding ding ding! gender inequality and long working hours. Pah.

Did you even bother to look at the statistics before making such an ignorant comment? The fertility rates in countries like Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore are much lower than in Western Europe.

It isn't due to gender inequality, it is due to health care, education, and economic reasons.

Re: China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market

#36

Post by nl »

w1ntermute wrote: post #3

I wonder if the rest of the Sinosphere will eventually suffer from the same sort of economic malaise as Japan, once they reach first-world status. They all have hierarchical cultures that make creative destruction difficult. So while they can quickly catch up to the West through efficient social organization, they can't break them down and replace them with something better.

China: 3 major shifts in power since WW2 (Communist takeover, Cultural revolution, embracing capaitalism) and your summary is that their culture makes creative destruction difficult.

On the contrary, I'd argue that the evidence is that Chinese leadership has historically been able to embrace creative destruction better than most Western governments.

Re: China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market

#37

Post by nl »

dmix wrote: post #5
w1ntermute wrote: post #3

I wonder if the rest of the Sinosphere will eventually suffer from the same sort of economic malaise as Japan, once they reach first-world status. They all have hierarchical cultures that make creative destruction difficult. So while they can quickly catch up to the West through efficient social organization, they can't break them down and replace them with something better.

Counter to most western thought, you can in fact have heavy social control but small-government in terms of economics ala Singapore and have a country make rapid economic process. China's CRC can loosen their grip on business, or selectively ignore it often enough, while still maintaining heavy control of culture and social issues, while still maintaining high growth rates. As we've seen in the last few decades. It d…

Singapore is a pro-business, large government benevolent dictatorship with a small population and almost limitless supplies of cheap, non-citizen labour.

Their society is a miraculous achievement, but it isn't clear that model generalizes to larger countries.

It's also not really in the 'Sinosphere', unless you consider all ASEAN countries to be (which they would strongly disagree with!)

I agree with your points about China though.

Re: China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market

#38

Post by seanmcdirmid »

lkrubner wrote: post #13
a_c_s wrote: post #4

Given that China's population is 10.8x Japan's, this seems inevitable. Is there more to this that make it notable that I'm missing? Source: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=china+population+%2F+j...

By that line of reasoning, India's stock market should be the same size as China's, and both China and India should have a stock market that is 4 times bigger than the USA. But that is not going to happen.

> But that is not going to happen.

That is not going to happen soon. It could happen in the future, for China at least. India is a poorer country, but both have histories of being industrious and productive, so it really shouldn't be surprising if they ascend again over time.

Re: China Overtakes Japan as World’s Second-Biggest Stock Market

#40

Post by seanmcdirmid »

nl wrote: post #36
w1ntermute wrote: post #3

I wonder if the rest of the Sinosphere will eventually suffer from the same sort of economic malaise as Japan, once they reach first-world status. They all have hierarchical cultures that make creative destruction difficult. So while they can quickly catch up to the West through efficient social organization, they can't break them down and replace them with something better.

China: 3 major shifts in power since WW2 (Communist takeover, Cultural revolution, embracing capaitalism) and your summary is that their culture makes creative destruction difficult. On the contrary, I'd argue that the evidence is that Chinese leadership has historically been able to embrace creative destruction better than most Western governments.

In the earlier part of the Qing dynasty, China was the richest country in the world, not to mention it had this status for much of its history. It should be no surprise that China rises to that status again, temporary mishaps (later Qing to present) not withstanding.
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