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Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

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Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#31

Post by robomartin »

dangero wrote: post #4

I'm pretty skeptical about resale value on the Model S at 5 or more years out just because their newer models will have major technical advances and the cost of a battery replacement. It's hard to speculate on that right now since the car is too new.

For some reason I can't quite put my finger on I have been viewing everything that comes out of Tesla with skepticism and distrust. I think it started with the attempt to confuse people with "creative" financing options.

I know it is a good company. I was waiting for them to revolutionize the SUV market with a true sports-utility electric vehicle. I would have been in line to buy one. Instead they are putting out a bullshit Gucci gull-wing contraption that is a total let-down. That's when I ceased to be interested in Tesla.

For a number of reasons we recently purchased a used two-year-old low-mileage BMW. For a little more money we got extended coverage that takes care of everything for seven years. We even covered the (expensive) tires.

We could have bought more than one fully-covered low-mileage certified-pre-owned BMW for the cost of a single Tesla.

My wife ran over something and punctured a tire a couple of months ago. Being a "run flat" tire, she drove to the nearest BMW dealer. They gave her a loaner car for the day and, for a $50 deductible, replaced the $500 tire and cleaned and washed her car.

So I read an article like this and my first reaction is: Who are they trying to fool?

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#32

Post by dangrossman »

lafar6502 wrote: post #22

- How do you service your Tesla? Do you have to go to Tesla-authorized shop or can you do it in any workshop? How does it affect repair and maintenance costs if you have no alternatives? - What about the 'guaranteed' buyback option? I'd be afraid that a buyback will be the only option to sell your old Tesla, because they won't be re-sellable on a free market without a costly hw/sw upgrade that can be done ONLY by Tes…

Regarding the market for resale, look at Roadsters and Model S on eBay. The market for 5 year old EVs seems pretty healthy. The batteries lose ~0.15% capacity per 1000 miles driven; nearly all 5-year-old Roadsters have over 85% of thir original range. Why would that change 5 years from now? Tesla would be shooting itself in the foot to do anything to purposely damage the resale market for their cars; that'd lower the value for new ones.

Why do you think you need to live in an area with a charging network to buy a Tesla car? Its range, equivalent to most gas cars, gives you many days of typical driving between charges. Unlike gas cars, you can "fill up" at home, there are no external dependencies. You'll also never suffer in a fuel shortage, which my area had several times before winter storms this season.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#33

Post by manacit »

takeda wrote: post #27
lafar6502 wrote: post #22

- How do you service your Tesla? Do you have to go to Tesla-authorized shop or can you do it in any workshop? How does it affect repair and maintenance costs if you have no alternatives? - What about the 'guaranteed' buyback option? I'd be afraid that a buyback will be the only option to sell your old Tesla, because they won't be re-sellable on a free market without a costly hw/sw upgrade that can be done ONLY by Tes…

> How do you service your Tesla? Do you have to go to Tesla-authorized shop or can you do it in any workshop? How does it affect repair and maintenance costs if you have no alternatives? There's not much to service, and normally you should do it once a year. The mechanics currently don't have schematics for Model S so it probably feels better to have it fixed at the company. I would imagine that you could get brakes…

    It was recently revealed that instead of CanBus they use Ethernet
If you're referring to the thread on teslamotorsclub.com[1], they are not using Ethernet for any sort of communication aside from infotainment and there is definitely a CAN bus[2].

There's been speculation that UDP broadcasts from the CAN bus are carried over that network as well, but it's almost certainly used for displaying information and informing various non-essential systems.

[1]: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/28185-Successf...

[2]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7535589

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#34

Post by NickM »

dangero wrote: post #4

I'm pretty skeptical about resale value on the Model S at 5 or more years out just because their newer models will have major technical advances and the cost of a battery replacement. It's hard to speculate on that right now since the car is too new.

Not that I'm disputing your point, but I think a lot of people make assumptions about EV batteries that aren't necessarily true. Nobody really knows for sure right now, but I think it's very possible that a Tesla battery pack might last for quite a long time.

I know in the past I've thought "hey, my iPod battery lost most of its capacity after five years, I guess li-ion batteries just don't have that much longevity." What I didn't know at the time was that different types of lithium ion battery chemistries yield drastically different lifespans. Studies have also repeatedly shown that temperature makes an enormous difference to longevity, and the Model S has a pretty fancy HVAC system designed to keep the battery within an optimum temperature range as much as possible.

Again, I agree with you that it's hard to really have any idea what the resale value will be in the future. But if we're guessing blindly, I don't think it's totally unreasonable to make an optimistic guess.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#35

Post by dave1619 »

dangero wrote: post #4

I'm pretty skeptical about resale value on the Model S at 5 or more years out just because their newer models will have major technical advances and the cost of a battery replacement. It's hard to speculate on that right now since the car is too new.

Resale value in 5+ years out should be very good. I've been watching the used market for over a year and it's been very, very strong. There's not much used inventory being sold and owners seem to love the Model S's.

The other factor with resale is that the Model S is light years ahead of any other cars in terms of technology. So, in 5 years the current center console of the Model S will still be far superior in terms of user experience than any other car in the market IMO. This will help resale value.

Another point is that current users are experiencing very little degradation on their batteries, even after 20-30k miles of usage. After 5 years/70k miles, the battery will probably still be at 95% capacity and this will help resale as well.

Also, with EVs in general you are buying not just the car but the battery. Think of it as you're buying your future gasoline with the car purchase (of course this isn't a perfect analogy because you still need to pay for electricity), so that's why EVs tend to have fairly good resale value.

Lastly, Tesla demonstrated a battery swap (in less than a few minutes) last year (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY). They've hinted that eventually you'll be able to upgrade your pack by paying the difference in value between your used pack and the new pack. No details have come out on this as of yet.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#36

Post by bri3d »

dangrossman wrote: post #32
lafar6502 wrote: post #22

- How do you service your Tesla? Do you have to go to Tesla-authorized shop or can you do it in any workshop? How does it affect repair and maintenance costs if you have no alternatives? - What about the 'guaranteed' buyback option? I'd be afraid that a buyback will be the only option to sell your old Tesla, because they won't be re-sellable on a free market without a costly hw/sw upgrade that can be done ONLY by Tes…

Regarding the market for resale, look at Roadsters and Model S on eBay. The market for 5 year old EVs seems pretty healthy. The batteries lose ~0.15% capacity per 1000 miles driven; nearly all 5-year-old Roadsters have over 85% of thir original range. Why would that change 5 years from now? Tesla would be shooting itself in the foot to do anything to purposely damage the resale market for their cars; that'd lower the…

Keep in mind that the Roadster is an extremely limited-production, high-end niche car that is no longer manufactured.

Its value/depreciation curve will look very different from a still-manufactured luxury sedan of a previous generation, which is what the Model S will be in 3-5 years when Tesla release a new style.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#37

Post by gtaylor »

Deusdies wrote: post #8
giarc wrote: post #6

Why exclude all North American manufacturers? I was hoping the author would address the exclusion.

Well, generally the North American car manufacturers produce cars of much poorer quality compared to the Japanese, Korean, and European car makers.

Citation needed.

Ford seems to have really cleaned up their act the last 3-5 years. I'm still a bit wary of Dodge/Chevy/GM, but have been super impressed with Ford. Granted, Ford did stink it up something ferocious in the early-mid 2000's.

Completely anecdotal, but we bought a 2012 focus last year and have been incredibly happy with it. Far more than with the Honda Civic it replaced. We run the wheels off our cars, and it's been a real trooper. Good gas mileage, easy to work on, cheap to repair/maintain.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#38

Post by smm2000 »

dba7dba wrote: post #17
acgourley wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's an excellent point but I would just temper it with the fact EVs should have lower long term maintenance issues for all non-battery parts. As an aside, I wonder if in 5 years you will be able to upgrade into a more powerful battery.

Whenever I'm sitting around waiting for oil change/tuneup/etc for my 2 cars in the family, I am tempted to look into Tesla. Having to sacrifice a Sat/car every few months for oil change really bugs me. Of course oil change itself is quick and cheap, but it’s the time I have to spend. EDIT: I should've clarified that I don't spend a WHOLE Sat for a car oil change. But for a 30min work on the car, you have to go there,…

I used to change oil at a mechanic located next to Safeway parking lot. Almost always oil change took less time than shopping for weekly supply of groceries.

Now my employer has mechanic working out of work parking lot bi-weekly - I just leave car with him in the morning and pick it up in the evening. It's even more convenient and slightly cheaper.

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#39

Post by mrfusion »

js2 wrote: post #30

Just to throw some maintenance numbers out there since I happen to own a 2003 Odyssey with over 170k miles and I've kept track of the costs in a spreadsheet. So far I've spent just under $10k in maintenance. The big annoying charge was ~ $4200 at 110k miles in 2010. The transmission failed, so this charge was for a Honda remanufactured transmission and PCM, plus the 105k maintenance (new timing belt). The other signi…

Isn't that early for the transmission to fail?

Re: Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

#40

Post by outworlder »

dangero wrote: post #4

I'm pretty skeptical about resale value on the Model S at 5 or more years out just because their newer models will have major technical advances and the cost of a battery replacement. It's hard to speculate on that right now since the car is too new.

Don't forget Tesla's guaranteed resale value.
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