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Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

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Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#31

I still feel like there are going to be some major regulatory changes that will eventually hit these types of businesses. What we've generally seen is cities say no, then realize how much value there is but not know what to do about it, then say yes. What we haven't seen as much is the post-yes interaction, where additional taxes and regulations get established. Should be interesting.

AirBnB provides little to no value to most cities. Cities lose out on all of the taxes and revenue when someone uses AirBnB instead of a hotel. The types of people who use AirBnB are heavily price sensitive, so the lost tax revenue isn't made up by increased spending elsewhere, i.e., on goods, dining, or tourist attractions.

Also, there's no need for "post-yes" for AirBnB. They already have hotel taxes and regulations (which cover everything from major chain hotels to tiny bread-and-breakfasts).

Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#32
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would think they need to sort out the lingering legal issues. You don't want to get into the area of "I raised money from public investors to run an illegal business". That's a jail time kind of offense. I'm not saying airbnb is illegal, but if the US courts turned on them I imagine it might get scary for the board and execs.

they provide enough value to enough people that they would never have something like that happen to them, there would be a public uproar. if they were doing something wrong in the eyes of the public, that's another case

yea, public uproar has been a huge deterrent on regulation in the past...

Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#33

What a silly joke[1]. Though they are planning to launch additional services [2] @aaronapple below (above?) is right... regulatory changes are on the way. Right now they're violating the law, don't collect or pay local taxes unlike real hotels, don't bother with ensuring that local rules and regulations are followed. This will (and should) change soon. Hiding behind the people who rent out their spaces who are "suppo…

It's outrageous - no way is AirBnB "worth" more than Hyatt hotels!!! "At $10bn, Airbnb would be one of the world’s most valuable startups and worth more than than Hyatt Hotels ($8.3bn) or Wyndham Worldwide ($9.4bn)." http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/mar/20/airbnb-fun...

It's outrageous - no way is AirBnB "worth" more than Hyatt hotels!!!

not crazy

1. go look at Hyatt's financials. Back in 2010 fiscal year Hyatt only generated $66M of net income. Why? Because hotels generally have high operating leverage (i.e. high fixed costs) and low margins, so small downturns in demand for rooms can have a large impact on profits. And frankly, AirBnB is helping depress demand for hotel rooms.

2. now think about AirBnB's business. They take 3% of every booking and they probably have low incremental costs (just additional server capacity).

The article below says they booked 12-15M in rooms in 2012. At an average of $100/room night (probably conservative) .. that's ~$1B in bookings with $30M going to AirBnB.

http://www.businessinsider.com/airbnb-billion-revenues-2013-...

We know AirBnB has grown rapidly ... and in the article they say they think they can serve 100 million in bookings per year ... which would equate to revenue of $300M. You can start to see how AirBnB could in fact produce as much profit as Hyatt without owning hundreds of properties.

Finally, don't bet against companies that combine economies of scale and customer captivity. I'd say that AirBnB has customer captivity because of the difficultly of establishing 'trust/credibility'. Once a user has established that credibility at one site I think they're fairly captive.

Anyway, time will tell. It's going to be fascinating to watch.

Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#34
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's outrageous - no way is AirBnB "worth" more than Hyatt hotels!!! "At $10bn, Airbnb would be one of the world’s most valuable startups and worth more than than Hyatt Hotels ($8.3bn) or Wyndham Worldwide ($9.4bn)." http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/mar/20/airbnb-fun...

It's outrageous - no way is AirBnB "worth" more than Hyatt hotels!!! not crazy 1. go look at Hyatt's financials. Back in 2010 fiscal year Hyatt only generated $66M of net income. Why? Because hotels generally have high operating leverage (i.e. high fixed costs) and low margins, so small downturns in demand for rooms can have a large impact on profits. And frankly, AirBnB is helping depress demand for hotel rooms. 2.…

Hmmmm... 2010 was apparently much worse than 2011/2012.

#1 - Look at 2012/2011 [1] - "As of December 31, 2012, our worldwide portfolio consisted of 500 properties (135,144 rooms and units)".

Property has value, even without income. AirBnB has no such thing.

"[...]We primarily derive our revenues from hotel operations, management and franchise fees, other revenues from managed properties and sales of vacation ownership properties. For the years ended December 31, 2012 and 2011, revenues totaled $3.9 billion and $3.7 billion, respectively, net income attributable to Hyatt Hotels Corporation totaled $88 million and $113 million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA totaled $606 million and $538 million, respectively.[...]"

[1] Source: - http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9M...

#2 - Your $30MM ($300MM) is before taxes, before expenses, before costs of expansion (servers, but also support, legal, etc etc) to get to the $300MM, and based on them not paying taxes, not adhering to local laws, etc etc.

In short: I think it's fair to state that the $10BB valuation is rather 'bubblelicious'.

Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#35

What a silly joke[1]. Though they are planning to launch additional services [2] @aaronapple below (above?) is right... regulatory changes are on the way. Right now they're violating the law, don't collect or pay local taxes unlike real hotels, don't bother with ensuring that local rules and regulations are followed. This will (and should) change soon. Hiding behind the people who rent out their spaces who are "suppo…

Once they are forced to play on a level playing field, their rates won't be as competitive and their service not as popular.

This is a common misconception on HN. People with technical backgrounds love structural explanations for things. You see a similar phenomenon in the number of people who believe that the shape of an airfoil is what keeps a plane up. But in fact the main thing driving Airbnb's growth is not price, but that guests are looking for authentic experiences. Price helps, just as lift generated by airfoil shapes does, but it's not what has made Airbnb big.

Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's outrageous - no way is AirBnB "worth" more than Hyatt hotels!!! "At $10bn, Airbnb would be one of the world’s most valuable startups and worth more than than Hyatt Hotels ($8.3bn) or Wyndham Worldwide ($9.4bn)." http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/mar/20/airbnb-fun...

Why is that crazy? How many guests does Hyatt serve per year? How many does AirBnB serve today? How many could AirBnB serve with continued growth for the next five years? And of course the elephant in the room, how many will AirBnB serve if regulations are enforced? Also an open question of will AirBnB be commoditized and have its value spread across dozens, if not hundreds or thousands, of competitors across the glo…

AirBnB had 200k listings and claimed 3MM guests at the end of 2012. I do suspect the average AirBnB stay is shorter.

Do note, from the Hyatt 2012 10-K "As of December 31, 2012, our worldwide portfolio consisted of 500 properties (135,144 rooms and units)."

With availability of 300-365 nights a year, unlike AirBnB, this amounts to more than 40-49MM room-nights they can sell. Occupancy rates varies of course, but even at 70% average, that's a whole bunch more people than AirBnB.

Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#37
post #35

What a silly joke[1]. Though they are planning to launch additional services [2] @aaronapple below (above?) is right... regulatory changes are on the way. Right now they're violating the law, don't collect or pay local taxes unlike real hotels, don't bother with ensuring that local rules and regulations are followed. This will (and should) change soon. Hiding behind the people who rent out their spaces who are "suppo…

Once they are forced to play on a level playing field, their rates won't be as competitive and their service not as popular. This is a common misconception on HN. People with technical backgrounds love structural explanations for things. You see a similar phenomenon in the number of people who believe that the shape of an airfoil is what keeps a plane up. But in fact the main thing driving Airbnb's growth is not pric…

I can see that being the case in many exciting locations, but in busy metro areas like NYC I am quite certain price is a major motivator.

Clarification re: popularity, I think we can agree that AirBnB lives and dies with its inventory. If cities/IRS were to crack down on the legal and tax aspects, inventory would significantly reduce.

One concerted enforcement action, eg enforcing disclosure of all who rent rooms to the IRS, or requiring disclosure of apt. addresses to landlords, and a very large part of the inventory will drop out overnight.

Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#38
post #35

What a silly joke[1]. Though they are planning to launch additional services [2] @aaronapple below (above?) is right... regulatory changes are on the way. Right now they're violating the law, don't collect or pay local taxes unlike real hotels, don't bother with ensuring that local rules and regulations are followed. This will (and should) change soon. Hiding behind the people who rent out their spaces who are "suppo…

Once they are forced to play on a level playing field, their rates won't be as competitive and their service not as popular. This is a common misconception on HN. People with technical backgrounds love structural explanations for things. You see a similar phenomenon in the number of people who believe that the shape of an airfoil is what keeps a plane up. But in fact the main thing driving Airbnb's growth is not pric…

that seems believable, but it also seems like I'm seeing more and more listings on airbnb who aren't selling an experience; they're just buying or renting properties and generating sales through airbnb. That is, there is no experience; it's just a (much nicer, better managed) alternative to vrbo / homeaway (not that that isn't desperately needed; trying to rent a seasonal ski home in tahoe is just begging for disruption because the experience is generally somewhere between shit and awful).

Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#39
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is that crazy? How many guests does Hyatt serve per year? How many does AirBnB serve today? How many could AirBnB serve with continued growth for the next five years? And of course the elephant in the room, how many will AirBnB serve if regulations are enforced? Also an open question of will AirBnB be commoditized and have its value spread across dozens, if not hundreds or thousands, of competitors across the glo…

HomeAway is public and worth $4 billion today. I'm pretty skeptical AirBNB is worth more than twice that.

Ya, seems pretty odd. We'd have to see AirBNB's revenue to to see if its really worth that price. As well, I believe HomeAway has a higher number of listings than AirBNB does.

Initially AirBNB had the advantage that it allowed for one-time postings of a property (as HomeAway would charge annually to post a property). But HomeAway has recently added per-booking fee if you are only posting once or twice a year.

At this point, I feel like AirBNB doesn't offer anything HomeAway already does. So unless AirBNB has some amazing growth potential or revenue, I don't see $10bn being likely.

Re: Airbnb Said to Pursue Valuation Above $10 Billion in New Fund-Raising Round

#40

One day, something incredibly bad will happen. When that day comes, AirBnB is going to need a monumental war-chest.

They also need money for bigger plans/additional services. See http://www.fastcompany.com/3027107/punk-meet-rock-airbnb-bri... By the way, bad stuff happens all the time. I assume a lot if this doesn't make it into the press as they pay people off. Just last week: http://mashable.com/2014/03/17/airbnb-freak-fest/ http://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-airbnb-x...

I think they'll get hit with something huge. A fire in an apartment that takes out the complex. A rape. A death. Something that'll ding them to the order of tens of millions, or more. For one incident. Something that they can't make go away for $20K. If there's a big enough payday, it will make its way into the press, no doubt.
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