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Japan's aging population could actually be good news

newscientist.com

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Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#31

Post by gojomo »

themgt wrote: post #13

It's the "Children of Men" solution to the automation/jobs crisis.

And yet: something that bothers me about that book/movie is that its portrayal of the labor/immigration dynamics seems exactly backward.

Without a fresh supply of young workers, but with all the factories/tools/capital/housing that supported a larger population, the benefit of incremental workers becomes gigantic.

The winning regions in such a scenario would be those that welcome massive immigration to maintain production.

Even assuming some xenophobic fear arising from the uniqueness of the zero-fertility situation, nations like the UK or US, that already have the benefit of worldwide adoption of its language (and cultural exports), and functioning beachhead immigrant communities of all types, would in such a scenario be most likely to recognize that immigrants could soften the pains of a population-shortage.

Keeping immigrants out would require even more of the dwindling population wasted on 'guard labor', and even more empty buildings/communities and idle factories. And to the extent that there are culture clashes – there's now plenty of space to congregate in voluntarily-segregated communities, but still within the same national boundaries for easier trade.

So while I loved a lot about the 'Children of Men' story/movie, its economics were all wrong.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#32

Post by a3n »

rayiner wrote: post #30
a3n wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But if, on average, we live longer and healthier lives (healthier is not guaranteed), then our creative lives might last longer too. It could be that creativity doesn't have as much to do with age and health as we think, and is more related to being new in a fascinating field. If we live longer we'd have more opportunities to be new with a large number of years in front of us. You can see this effect in the small whe…

Its not a matter of health. You can give a 65 year old the brain of a 20 year old, but you can't give him back his naive unindoctrinated view of the world. And the sheer wonderment of childhood and adolescence is something you can never recapture. I have a 1 year old. There are expressions of joy you will only ever see on the face of a 1 year old, because for them the most mundane experiences are nonetheless firsts.…

> but you can't give him back his naive unindoctrinated view of the world.

Exactly the point of my second paragraph. With enough years in front, it can be worth starting completely over again, and gain the possibility of that childlike wonder and enthusiasm. Maybe school -> genius career -> kids and married life -> school -> completely new genius career.

With a long enough healthy life to go, it can be worthwhile to start completely over, rather than hunkering down and preparing for the decline.

EDIT: Anyway, y'all better hope so, because you're all mostly going to live much longer than we elders do, whether you like it or not. Stay sharp.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#33

Post by wtracy »

revelation wrote: post #26
Daishiman wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Different day, same Malthusian bullshit. We are currently experiencing a human-induced mass extinction event and reduction of biodiversity comparable to the largest natural catastrophes in the planet. The way things are going, by the end of the century most of the large mammalian predators will be definitely extinct, and if carbon emissions are not reduced by the end of the century, by which we should become a carb…

I don't get it. The ecosystem is not a constant system. It is summary randomness, guided by evolution. Whatever you are trying to preserve, be assured new randomness will happily take its place.

The current randomness supports human life. I'm not so sure that whatever replaces it will too.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#34

Post by a8da6b0c91d »

threeseed wrote: post #27
a8da6b0c91d wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Resource consumption is a problem with our current technological base Overpopulation destroys quality of life. You can't fix that by throwing more technology at the problem. Technology isn't going to make more nice beachfront property accessible and affordable for middle class family vacations. Technology isn't going to make more high grade wild tuna, or quiet walks in empty woods.

No. But declining populations destroys quality of life. With an ageing population you need someone to "work" in order to cover state-subsidised health care, housing, unemployment, pensions and other living costs for those that are still alive but not working. And technology can absolutely solve a lot of problems. Being able to grow commercial quantities of meat in laboratories will change the world overnight. As will…

Populations are contracting because of overpopulation. I think it's clear we're in the later phases of Calhoun's rat experiments, where overcrowding sent rat birth rates crashing. In the human context I think the "overcrowding" stress includes the ever increasing complexity and flux of the society. There's not a techno/policy fix. This is a self-correcting problem that should be left alone. Fertility peaked in the industrialized world many years ago because the lands are full. Allowing immigration has been a mistake.

A contracting population is clearly a big problem for the capital class. It's bad for stock and bond holders, employers of labor, politicians, and I guess people who made poor retirement preparations. But I don't buy that it's a problem for workers Joe and Jane Blow. They eventually get cheap, high quality housing, and are more inclined to start a family.

Anyway, I also think the various futurist techno fantasies are wrong. Unless liquid thorium reactors or such-like come online next month we're entering an age of permanently escalating energy and food costs. Technology still runs on energy. The Jetsons future of electric cars and soylent for growing billions is not going to happen. The future for most is bicycles with rice and beans.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#35

Post by hcarvalhoalves »

rayiner wrote: post #9

Here's the problem I see with both population decline and life extension: lots of research indicates that the creative peak happens from 20-40 or so. Geniuses rarely continue to be the same level of productive after that. In other words, progress is probably better served by giving two people the chance to live 50 years than one person the chance to live 100, though resource consumption is about the same. An aging so…

This comment upsets me.

How pretentious to define what people should do with their lives and how long they should live based on some loosely defined "progress". Society doesn't have a moral obligation of pumping out geniuses. People live because that's a natural right.

Besides, not many things in life are more valuable than sitting down and having a chat with someone 70, 80, 90 years old. It's wisdom you won't find on Google.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#36

Post by barry-cotter »

a8da6b0c91d wrote: post #34
threeseed wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. But declining populations destroys quality of life. With an ageing population you need someone to "work" in order to cover state-subsidised health care, housing, unemployment, pensions and other living costs for those that are still alive but not working. And technology can absolutely solve a lot of problems. Being able to grow commercial quantities of meat in laboratories will change the world overnight. As will…

Populations are contracting because of overpopulation. I think it's clear we're in the later phases of Calhoun's rat experiments, where overcrowding sent rat birth rates crashing. In the human context I think the "overcrowding" stress includes the ever increasing complexity and flux of the society. There's not a techno/policy fix. This is a self-correcting problem that should be left alone. Fertility peaked in the in…

Allowing immigration has been a mistake.

Yeah, I got mine. Fuck all those foreigners whose ancestors didn't get here fast enough.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#38

Post by a8da6b0c91d »

barry-cotter wrote: post #36
a8da6b0c91d wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Populations are contracting because of overpopulation. I think it's clear we're in the later phases of Calhoun's rat experiments, where overcrowding sent rat birth rates crashing. In the human context I think the "overcrowding" stress includes the ever increasing complexity and flux of the society. There's not a techno/policy fix. This is a self-correcting problem that should be left alone. Fertility peaked in the in…

Allowing immigration has been a mistake. Yeah, I got mine. Fuck all those foreigners whose ancestors didn't get here fast enough.

It's a nation, not a charity operation.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#39

Post by kenster07 »

Daishiman wrote: post #21
didgeoridoo wrote: post #3

> But fewer people in future will mean it has more living space, more arable land per head, and a higher quality of life, says Eberstadt. Its demands on the planet for food and other resources will also lessen. Different day, same Malthusian bullshit. These people can only think of humans as net negative parasites on the planet, rather than individual agents with a positive expected value to society. Density is GOOD…

> Different day, same Malthusian bullshit. We are currently experiencing a human-induced mass extinction event and reduction of biodiversity comparable to the largest natural catastrophes in the planet. The way things are going, by the end of the century most of the large mammalian predators will be definitely extinct, and if carbon emissions are not reduced by the end of the century, by which we should become a carb…

Consumerism dramatically amplifies all said effects. Many of these issues would be solved for a long time by simply mitigating that mindset.

Re: Japan's aging population could actually be good news

#40

Post by iterative »

didgeoridoo wrote: post #3

> But fewer people in future will mean it has more living space, more arable land per head, and a higher quality of life, says Eberstadt. Its demands on the planet for food and other resources will also lessen. Different day, same Malthusian bullshit. These people can only think of humans as net negative parasites on the planet, rather than individual agents with a positive expected value to society. Density is GOOD…

Good luck trying to convince people. I think that Malthusianism just makes sense to people instinctively, and that counts for much more than the fact that it's been proven incorrect over and over again. Even though doom and gloom about things like "overpopulation" have been debunked time and again by people like Julian Simon ("The Ultimate Resource") you'll never convince people who've bought into it to change their minds.
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