31–40 of 44 posts
6 months, not sure. Probably less than 100. Bitcoin is certainly interesting, but there's absolutely nothing backing it. Doesn't seem much different to me than pokemon/baseball cards/pet rocks. Once the novelty wears off, or one of the big players cashes out, we'll see it crash.
A few months ago, before the current wave of hype started, I got the historical price data on bitcoin and ran Eureqa on it, which is a program that tries to find the simplest possible equation that fits the data. Not for any practical reason, I was just testing the software. I extrapolated the result forward in time a few months ahead to see what it predicted, and it showed it increasing in price exponentially. I was…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You can't make as many Bitcoins as you can pokemon/baseball cards/pet rocks. That's one thing backing it. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins in existence. Ever.
Not really true. We could fork the software and call it something else. Maybe change the hashing algorithm and the hard limit on the maximum number of coins, like Litecoin did. Trivial to do. There is no intrinsic difference between a Bitcoin or a Litecoin except they are used on different networks and have a different name. By contrast, precious metals have inherent properties determined by nature. Gold is inert, it…
I wonder if a poll is the best forecasting device; it seems almost axiomatic that a prediction market [1] would be a superior solution. On the other hand; I'm guessing that you might stir a bit of controversy if you were to set up a futures market where you offered people the chance to make an offer of how much they would pay for a bitcoin delivered a year from now; and others to post offers for how much they would n…
imo, bitcoin is very speculative and volatile, its a crazy market and these posts don't help that fact...
I wonder if a poll is the best forecasting device; it seems almost axiomatic that a prediction market [1] would be a superior solution. On the other hand; I'm guessing that you might stir a bit of controversy if you were to set up a futures market where you offered people the chance to make an offer of how much they would pay for a bitcoin delivered a year from now; and others to post offers for how much they would n…
https://www.predictious.com I'm not recommending it, just pointing out that it exists, and that is exactly the sort of thing people are making predictions on. I looks a little expensive to participate (fees seem high for what the site does, to me).
To be clear, I was suggesting that someone setup a full-blown futures market; not a prediction market ( which is the most neutered form of a derivative market, as near as I can tell ).
If you denominated the contracts entirely in BTC it might even be legal...
And if you had some enforcement mechanism (anything from shaming to gangsters giving amateur dental work to defectors), it might even work.
The question of whether a Bitcoin futures market would be more volatile if denominated in dollars or BTC is left as an exercise for the reader.
6 months, not sure. Probably less than 100. Bitcoin is certainly interesting, but there's absolutely nothing backing it. Doesn't seem much different to me than pokemon/baseball cards/pet rocks. Once the novelty wears off, or one of the big players cashes out, we'll see it crash.
A big player could manipulate the price by buying their own bitcoin through an exchange.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://www.predictious.com I'm not recommending it, just pointing out that it exists, and that is exactly the sort of thing people are making predictions on. I looks a little expensive to participate (fees seem high for what the site does, to me).
That's awesome. People never cease to amaze. To be clear, I was suggesting that someone setup a full-blown futures market; not a prediction market ( which is the most neutered form of a derivative market, as near as I can tell ). If you denominated the contracts entirely in BTC it might even be legal... And if you had some enforcement mechanism (anything from shaming to gangsters giving amateur dental work to defecto…
So, if you short shares, it locks up the full amount you would owe if your prediction is wrong. Going long only takes the amount of the bet (since that's all you can lose). It's kinda confusing and difficult for me to wrap my head around it, honestly, so I probably won't be doing a lot of that sort of thing.
But, it is a necessary part of the economy, I think. Having markets for all sorts of risk provides the ability to hedge against volatility. I don't think Predictious is really doing that, right now...it's sort of a thinking mans gambling site, as far as I can tell. Which is, as you note, less exciting and interesting than a proper futures and derivatives market.
But, legality is definitely up in the air. Americans can't participate in Intrade, for example, so I guess futures markets aren't legal in the US. I'm gonna guess that once Bitcoin looks like a currency to the US government there might be a stink about Predictious, too. I'm sure I'll be bored of the concept before then.
It is the nature of technology that bitcoins will someday become MySpace.
I am open to be convinced otherwise by someone knowledgeable.